Monday, September 8, 2014

About that other enemy of ours . . .

While post-America is rightly focused on IS right now, here's how things stand with regard to Iran:

Iran is definitely not cooperating on the nuclear issueReuters:
An IAEA report obtained by Reuters showed that little substantive headway had so far been made in the U.N. agency’s long-running investigation into what it calls the possible military dimensions of Iran’s nuclear programme.
The Islamic Republic has implemented just three of five nuclear transparency steps that it was supposed to by Aug. 25 under a confidence-building deal it reached with the IAEA in November, according to the quarterly report.
Crucially, it has not provided information on the two issues that are part of the IAEA’s investigation: alleged experiments on explosives that could be used for an atomic device, and studies related to calculating nuclear explosive yields.
The report said Iran, where a president seen as pragmatic took office in 2013 and revived diplomacy with the West, told the IAEA last week that most suspicions over its programme were “mere allegations and do not merit consideration”.
A Vienna-based diplomat called that statement “worrying”.
The IAEA had also observed via satellite imagery “ongoing construction activity” at Iran’s Parchin military base, the report said. Western officials believe Iran once conducted explosive tests there of relevance in developing a nuclear weapon and has sought to “cleanse” it of evidence since then. Iran has long denied U.N. nuclear inspectors access to the base.
Worrying indeed.
There is no way the U.S. Congress will accept any kind of nuclear deal with Iran before this case is closed. Failure to comply with its own agreement to resolve these issues suggests either that whoever has the final say in Iran’s complicated and bitter internal wrangling over this issue doesn’t think reaching a comprehensive agreement in November is either practical or desirable. The mixed signals from Iran—continuing to reduce its reported uranium stockpile while blowing off the IAEA—suggest that the authorities want another extension of the temporary agreement, presumably with some more sanctions relief.

It actually all fits, and not so prettily.  Secretaries Global-Test and Hagel are both set to visit the Middle East this week to rally support for concerted action against IS. The regimes most likely to be receptive to their overtures also are none too keen on the Shiite regime in Persia.  They'll be looking for signs that we are "pivoting," to coin a phrase, away from patty-cake with the mullahs. Resolve and clarity are the kinds of assets, after all, that are needed in a struggle against any foe.


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