The West's efforts to influence Russia's behavior have been inadequate

Peter Foster at the UK Telegraph has an article up entitled, "Vladimir Putin Has Absorbed the West's 'consequences' and Stepped Up His Aggression."  He says there's been no tamping-down of Vlad's nose-thumbing ways:

By ordering a de facto invasion of Ukraine a week before Nato leaders meet for their summit in Wales, Mr Putin was flaunting the fact that he well understood the limits of European and American efforts to dissuade him from action.

As any strongman would, when sentenced to recession by Washington and Brussels, Mr Putin has taken the stinging slap without showing a trace of pain (even though his economy is hurting) and then hit back again, daring the West to go further.

This was not a gamble on the Russian president's part. As one US official despaired privately: "If Putin is immune to economic pain and we are not willing to use military force, then he's got us in check mate, doesn't he?"

Given events in Ukraine, the Baltic leaders could be forgiven for feeling more than a little nervous about the quality of Western assurances these days.

Ukraine is not a member of Nato, so we don't - to quote Mr Obama last week - stand "shoulder to shoulder" with them in the same way that we stand "shoulder to shoulder" with Latvia, Lithuania or Estonia under Article 5 of the Nato treaty.

European leaders talk tough - David Cameron threatens "consequences", Angela Merkel demands more sanctions, Francois Hollande says the Russian incursion is "intolerable" - and yet, as with the annexation of Crimea, that is exactly what we are being forced to tolerate.

We have clearly - and correctly most people would agree - made the calculation that we are not prepared to go war over Ukraine. Nor (unlike Mr Putin) are we prepared to suffer the recession and energy crisis that would be precipitated by inflicting extreme, crippling sanctions on Russia.

And that de facto invasion is well underway, according to Annie Gowan at The Washington Post.  There's a town in eastern Ukraine that has been softened up by pro-Russia rebels for the arrival of actual Russian troops.  Russia is distributing leaflets instructing residents on how to behave when the troops get there:

The nine-point list of instructions on the leaflet — the authenticity of which could not be verified — includes directions to “not under any circumstances hinder the movement of Russian troops,” to “only communicate in Russian,” to “prepare lists of servicemen of the Ukrainian army, participants in the Maidan, civil groups and leaders of national communities to be forwarded to employees of the Russian Security Service,” and to “be ready at any time” to give up living space to “peacekeeping forces of the Russian Federation.”

As I said the other day, what the hell is the Most Equal Comrade doing this very moment?  If it's not focusing on Russia's war machine and the IS threat, this taxpayer wants his ass fired.  Have that chef and that state-propaganda chick tied the knot yet?  Then put the champagne glass down and get your sorry tail end to the Situation Room.