China past its demographic tipping point

James Pethokoukis at his AEI blog points out that easing of China's one-child policy comes a little late for resolving what that has done to population trends:

China’s decision to loosen its one-child policy is a moral triumph but unlikely to be an economic one. In theory, a higher fertility rate would give China more workers to financially support the elderly and create a younger, more economically dynamic society.

But here’s the problem: China’s fertility rate is 1.55, even lower in urban areas. It’s an extremely low 0.7% in Shanghai, for instance. Continuing urbanization will continue to push down the overall fertility rate.

And research suggests that once a nation’s fertility rate falls below a certain level, it is nearly impossible to reverse the trend. As Jonathan Last writes in What To Expect When No One’s Expecting:

Fertility trends have the turning radius of battleship not a go-kart. And the further fertility drops, the more unbendable the downward trend becomes. It is difficult to change direction from a rate of 1.75. Below a sustained rate of 1.50, there are no examples of a country returning to replacement level.

Yet another reason why I think China's main strengths are its bellicosity and wiliness  and not its societal health.