There's a palpable Cuban-missile-crisis-y feel to the present moment

 I think the Cuban missile crisis of October 1962 is still considered the moment at which the world came closest to nuclear war. Maybe that's just because I live through it and remember grownups discussing it. I was alive for the Suez Canal crisis of 1956, which, in retrospect, was another moment when the danger level was pretty heightened, but I was an infant. We're finding out that we weren't all that far away from such a point of peril in Vietnam in 1968.

But in recent years, that hair-trigger tension level has abated:

For more than three decades after the end of the Cold War, the United States and its allies faced no serious nuclear threats.

But no sooner do Madelyn Creedon and Franklin Miller, writing at Foreign Affairs, assert as much, than they follow it with this splash of cold water:

Unfortunately, that is no longer the case. Russian President Vladimir Putin has been rattling his nuclear saber in a manner reminiscent of Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev. Chinese President Xi Jinping has directed a dramatic buildup of China’s nuclear arsenal, a project whose size and scope the recently retired commander of U.S. Strategic Command has described as “breathtaking.” The Russian and Chinese leaders have also signed a treaty of “friendship without limits.” North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is supplying weapons and troops to support Russia’s war in Ukraine, and North Korea is improving its ability to strike both its neighbors and the U.S. homeland with nuclear weapons, as it demonstrated with an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) test launch on October 31.

Europe is particularly on edge.

The Nordic countries tell their citizens "prepare and we ain't foolin'":

On Monday, millions of pamphlets landed in Swedish homes eerily titled: "If Crisis or War Comes," while other nations issue their own chilling advice to fearful citizens.

Stockholm has warned of what they call the worsening security situation - otherwise known as Russia's bloody invasion of Ukraine - and urged Swedes to prepare for conflict.

Meanwhile neighbouring Finland have published its own chilling advice online to prepare "for incidents and crises".

In a scarily detailed section on military conflict, the digital brochure describes how the government and president would respond in the event of an armed attack.

The Finnish brochure stressed that its authorities are "well prepared for self defence".

Norwegians also received a pamphlet urging residents to know how to manage on their own for a week in the event of extreme weather - or war.

In summer, Denmark's emergency management agency put out a warning to Danish adults detailing the water, food and medicine necessary to get through three days of crisis.

Sweden and Finland recently gave up neutrality to join Nato after witnessing the atrocities Putin has unleashed in Ukraine since 2022.

Norway was a founding member of the Western defensive alliance on the other hand.

Germans, too:

Germans have been put on high alert for a potential World War 3 scenario with Russia following renewed threats of a nuclear strike from Vladimir Putin. The situation has escalated after US President Joe Biden authorised Ukraine to use long-range missiles against Russia, which Moscow claims has already targeted a weapons warehouse in the Bryansk region.

Putin warned in September that if Western countries allow Ukraine to strike deep inside Russiawith their longer-range weapons, "it will mean that NATO countries, the US, and European countries are at war with Russia."

German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius has since stated that Russia poses not just a military but also a hybrid threat and that Europe needs to adopt a comprehensive approach to defence.Germany's Foreign Minister has also pledged that the country will not be "intimidated" by Putin, following revelations that Germany would serve as a NATO staging ground should the conflict escalate further.

According to a 1,000-page document titled 'Operationsplan Deutschland', Germany would host hundreds of thousands of troops from NATO countries and act as a logistics hub for dispatching military equipment, food, and medicine to the front lines. The German army is also advising civilians and businesses on how to safeguard infrastructure and prepare to defend the country against potential sabotage, drone attacks, and spying operations.

Germany is setting crisis plans into motion, assigning responsibilities for emergency actions and creating diesel stockpiles, following the lead of Scandinavian nations. Defence Minister Mr Pistorius announced on Tuesday that officials suspect sabotage caused damage to two undersea data cables in the Baltic Sea, one terminating in Germany, although evidence is yet to be found, reports the Mirror US.

Italy, Spain, Greece and the US have closed their Kyiv embassies for at least a day as Ukraine anticipates yet another brazen missile assault from Russia. 

Some bracing words from Sergey Markov:

The US has been given a chilling 'WW3 by Christmas' warning by pro-Putin spokesperson Sergey Markov.

Western allies, also including Britain and France, have taken a “big jump” towards a nuclear conflict by giving Ukraine permission to fire Western long-range missiles into Kremlin territory, Markov claims.

A regular Putin “mouthpiece”, Markov warned that the shock move by President Joe Biden could mean that Britons could be facing a Christmas in shelters.

But Putin lackeys routinely indulge in nuclear bluster, don't they?

Those in favour of the move have noted that the Kremlin and its mouthpieces in the state-controlled media and academia had threatened nuclear war every time the West had stepped up its support for Ukraine, including when it provided tanks, fighter jets and other sophisticated weapon systems.

However, Markov, currently the Director General of Russia's Institute for Political Studies, was convinced the move was different as it would mean that Western militaries would be directly involved in the conflict for the first time - Ukraine would require their assistance to use the precision guided missile systems.

Speaking to BBC Radio 4, he said: “My reaction [to the White House’s decision] was awful, I couldn't sleep well because I am just afraid nuclear war is coming.

“This decision of United States, Great Britain and France is not a step towards nuclear war it is a big jump to nuclear war, nuclear catastrophe."

What's the latest with Iran's nuclear ambitions? 

 Iran has defied international demands to rein in its nuclear program and has increased its stockpile of uranium enriched to near weapons-grade levels, according to a confidential report by the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog seen Tuesday by The Associated Press.

The report by the International Atomic Energy Agency said that as of Oct. 26, Iran has 182.3 kilograms (401.9 pounds) of uranium enriched up to 60%, an increase of 17.6 kilograms (38.8 pounds) since the last report in August.

Uranium enriched at 60% purity is just a short, technical step away from weapons-grade levels of 90%.

The IAEA also estimated in its quarterly report that as of Oct. 26, Iran’s overall stockpile of enriched uranium stands at 6,604.4 kilograms (14,560 pounds), an increase of 852.6 kilograms (1,879.6 pounds) since August. Under the IAEA’s definition, around 42 kilograms (92.5 pounds) of uranium enriched to 60% purity is the amount at which creating one atomic weapon is theoretically possible — if the material is enriched further, to 90%.

The reports come at a critical time as Israel and Iran have traded missile attacks in recent months after more than a year of war in Gaza, which is governed by Hamas, a group supported by Iran.

It may be time to reassess the above-mentioned instances' status in the history of nuclear danger. Our present moment seems to offer enough to go around. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

China's badly sagging internally, but that doesn't mean it doesn't pose a threat on the world stage

 Michael Schuman, a Beijing-based writer for The Atlantic, says that years of trying to mix free-market activity (private companies) with heavy-handed statism (industrial policy, regulation) has taken the wind out of China's sails:

China’s jobless college graduates have become an embarrassment to Chinese leader Xi Jinping. The unemployment rate among the country’s youth has reached an all-time high, putting the country’s severe economic troubles on display at home and abroad. In August, Xi’s administration decided to act: Its statistics bureau stopped releasing the data.

But Xi can’t hide China’s economic woes—or hide from them. The problems are not just a post-pandemic malaise, or some soon-to-be-forgotten detour in China’s march to superpower stature. The vaunted China model—the mix of liberalization and state control that generated the country’s hypersonic growth—has entered its death throes.

The news should not come as a surprise. Economists and even Chinese policy makers have warned for years that the China model was fundamentally flawed and would inevitably break down. But Xi was too consumed with shoring up his own power to undertake the necessary reforms to fix it. Now the problems run so deep, and the repairs would be so costly, that the time for a turnaround may have passed.

Contrary to the assumptions of many commentators in recent years, China may never overtake the United States as the world’s dominant economy if current trends continue. In fact, it’s already falling behind. 

Once again, we're seeing that central planning is a poor way to gauge what a country is going to need, Over-investing in housing, factory capacity, railways, etc. has resulted in a debt level three times that of the size of the country's economy.

Xi once talked a good game about moving in a sensible direction, but the initiatives he talked about never got off the ground:

Early in his tenure, Xi seemed to accept these imperatives. In 2013, he signed off on a Communist Party reform blueprint that pledged to give the market a “decisive” role in the economy. But the reforms never happened. Enacting them would have diminished the power of the state—and thus Xi’s own power. China’s leader was unwilling to trade political control for economic growth.

The more power Xi has commanded, the heavier the state’s hand in the economy has become. Xi has relied on state industrial policy to drive innovation, and he has imposed intrusive regulations on important sectors, such as technology and education. As a result, China’s private sector is in retreat. Two years ago, private companies accounted for 55 percent of the collective value of China’s 100 largest publicly traded firms, according to the Peterson Institute for International Economics; in mid-2023, that share fell to 39 percent.

People's incomes are going in the wrong direction for domestic consumption to take up the slack.

So the way to project an image of continuing power, it seems, is to act like a menace in the western Pacific:

China’s navy has launched its largest-ever manoeuvres with an aircraft carrier in the western Pacific, according to foreign defence officials and analysts, as Beijing flexes its military muscle to push back against the US and its allies.

 

The Shandong, the People’s Liberation Army Navy’s second aircraft carrier, was on course on Tuesday to converge with more than 20 other Chinese warships in waters between Taiwan, the Philippines and the US Pacific territory of Guam, said two Asian security officials.

 

“This is by far the largest number of ships we have seen training with any Chinese carrier so far,” said Su Tzu-yun, an analyst at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, a defence-ministry backed think-tank in Taipei. “They are expressing their displeasure with the various military exercises that have been under way in their periphery.”

 

Taiwan’s defence ministry counted 20 PLA warships in the waters around the island in the 24 hours to early Tuesday morning. It did not give any detail, but the disclosure followed its announcement on Monday that the Shandong had sailed through the Bashi Channel, which separates Taiwan from the Philippines, into the Pacific. Japan’s military also reported the passage of eight PLA naval vessels into the Pacific via the Miyako Strait, south of Okinawa.

 

One east Asian national security official said the vessels spotted by Japan — six missile destroyers and two frigates — were continuing in a direction that indicated they would meet up with the Shandong. A separate Asian military official said some of the PLA vessels operating near Taiwan were also following the carrier.

When Marxist-Leninists with big egos reach this stage in their fortunes, they aren't too concerned with what international organizations and multinational corporations think. 

This situation is going to continue to get more raw and real for all of us. 

 

BRICS is starting to take on a more discernible identity

 . . . and one that ought to concern the West and its allies throughout the world:

The BRICS bloc of developing nations agreed on Thursday to admit Saudi Arabia, Iran, Ethiopia, Egypt, Argentina and the United Arab Emirates in a move aimed at accelerating its push to reshuffle a world order it sees as outdated.

In deciding in favour of an expansion - the bloc's first in 13 years - BRICS leaders left the door open to future enlargement as dozens more countries voiced interest in joining a grouping they hope can level the global playing field.

The expansion adds economic heft to BRICS, whose current members are China, the world's second largest economy, as well as Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa. It could also amplify its declared ambition to become a champion of the Global South.

Some factors could mitigate the drive toward unity:

But long-standing tensions could linger between members who want to forge the grouping into a counterweight to the West - notably China, Russia and now Iran - and those that continue to nurture close ties to the United States and Europe.

But what esprit de corps it's feeling right now is not something that smells very fragrant.

China's Xi is pretty fired up about the expansion. He no doubt sees it as an opportunity to breathe new life into the Belt and Road Initiative.  South Africa's Ramaphosa's public statement focuses on the more-fair-and-just-world-stage rhetoric. Putin, who attended remotely, also took the nicey-nice tack, saying BRICS isn't out to compete with anyone. No, that's not the Putinist way. He just invades.

As with any geostrategic development, things will not proceed in a linear fashion, but this is not a bunch united by any kind of vision with a recognizably moral component.

 

 

A humdinger of an upside the head, economically speaking

 These aren't the rantings of some wackadoodle.

It comes from Desmond Lachland of the American Enterprise Institute, who had previously served as deputy director of the IMF's Policy Development and Review Department.

He, in turn, shares the outlook of someone he respects a great deal:

The world is soon headed for a period of serious economic disorder, warns Ray Dalio, founder of the world’s largest hedge fund, Bridgewater. 

And (to paraphrase what a 1970s brokerage-firm commercial used to say about E.F. Hutton) when Dalio speaks, people need to listen.

Especially with his alarming warning backed up by historical experience and by current trends.

The essence of Dalio’s message: Economic disorder looms as a result of the combination of three factors all too reminiscent of the economically turbulent 1930s.

The first: The world has never been indebted before as it is today.

The second: Populism driven by income inequality has become the order of the day in all too many countries, including most importantly the United States.

Finally: Rivalry between major world powers like China, Russia and the United States has echoes of the world geopolitical tensions experienced in the first half of the 20th century with the rise of Germany as an economic powerhouse.

The world's debt level has a direct bearing on interest rates:

per the Bank for International Settlements, if interest rates were to reach the levels of the mid-1990s, the debt-service burden for developed economies would be the highest in history.

Unfortunately, there is every prospect that interest rates in the developed countries will reach or surpass their mid-1990s level.

Over the past year, both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have raised interest rates to combat inflation at the fastest pace since the early 1980s.

At the same time, both Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and ECB President Christine Lagarde are warning that interest rates might need to be raised further in light of inflation’s current stickiness.

They have also warned that interest rates will stay high for longer than the market currently expects.  

There's a sociocultural element as well:

The political calendar suggests that debt problems could coincide with increased domestic political strife, especially in the United States.

Polls indicate that the nation has never been as politically polarized as it is today in the post-war period.

They also suggest a divisive Donald Trump very likely could be the Republican Party’s nominee in the 2024 presidential election.

And then there's the geopolitical level of the matter:

As if the debt and domestic political problems were not a sufficient challenge for the global economy, there’s the real prospect that the world’s already difficult geopolitical environment could take a turn for the worse.

This would be particularly the case were China’s President Xi Jinping to take a page out of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s playbook and embark on a Taiwanese military adventure to divert attention from a struggling domestic economy.

It hardly helps that Taiwan supplies around half of our electronic chips and an even higher proportion of the more sophisticated of these chips.

Now, think about the foregoing in terms of what we can and cannot do about these factors.

There's only so much we can do about rogue actors on the world stage threatening tumultuous changes to the existing order. We'll need to respond if they really press their intentions, but they will do what they're going to do.

But the debt? Here in the United States, we could do two things right away to veer off of this disastrous path. We could look squarely, like responsible adults, at the glaringly obvious need to restructure the entitlement programs our government has instituted over the past century. And we could quit engaging in redistribution of money that belongs to private individuals and organizations for stupid stuff like "investing" in play-like energy forms and identity-politics social engineering. 

Re: our polarization: We could give up our enthusiasm for knuckleheads, grifters and unhinged maniacs with no understanding of what history tells us about the human condition, or real Americana exceptionalism. 

I'm not encouraged about the chances of us acting on that which is within our power to act on.

So, here we go, I guess. 

 

 

 

 

 

China, Russia and the nature of their alliance / understanding

 A year ago, the Putin regime made up its mind that it would embrace pariah status. What would be required to restore Russia's ability to be accepted in polite company on the world stage is pretty much inconceivable. 

China is every bit as much of a rogue nation as Russia, but Xi's savvy and energetic diplomacy moves have positioned it better strategically.

Russia goes more for in-your-face belligerence:

Russia could have its most powerful and quiet nuclear attack submarines on persistent patrols off either U.S. Coast in the next two years, the head of U.S. Northern Command told the Senate Armed Services Committee on Thursday.

In response to questions from Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) on the threat of Chinese and Russian cruise missile submarines operating close to the U.S., NORTHCOM commander Gen. Glen VanHerck said that the deployments of the Russian Yasen-class nuclear cruise missile attack boats have been deploying more frequently.

“[The risk is] absolutely increasing. Within the last year, Russia has also placed their [Yasens] in the Pacific,” he said.
“Now not only the Atlantic, but we also have them in the Pacific and it’s just a matter of time – probably a year or two – before that’s a persistent threat, 24 hours a day. … That impact has reduced decision space for a national senior leader in a time of crisis.”

Also known by their NATO reporting name Severodvinsk class, the 13,800-ton Yasen-class attack boats are among the most capable submarines in the world. In particular, the three current boats in the class are capable of a special quiet operations mode that make them difficult to detect in the open ocean. In 2018, the lead boat in the class, Severodvinsk, evaded U.S. efforts to find it for weeks, according to press reports.

Navy officials have told USNI News that the service has become increasingly concerned with the efficacy of the Russian submarine force.

The growing ability of Russian submarines to operate undetected in the Atlantic pushed the Navy to reactivate U.S. 2nd Fleet and create a command for anti-submarine warfare across the Atlantic in 2018.

The Russian Navy has planned to build ten Yasen-class attack boats, with the fourth to commission later this year, according to Russian press reports.

Medvedev further ratchets up the rhetoric:

Dmitry Medvedev, the 57-year-old deputy secretary of Russia’s Security Council chaired by Putin, said in video remarks to reporters that Russia’s relations with the West have hit an all-time low.

Asked whether the threat of a nuclear conflict has eased, Medvedev responded: “No, it hasn’t decreased, it has grown. Every day when they provide Ukraine with foreign weapons brings the nuclear apocalypse closer.”

 

Russia can still count China among its friends. What is each side getting from it? China procures energy from Russia, and Russia pockets cash:

Russia will increasingly be a commodities warehouse for China as Moscow grows more economically dependent on Beijing, a source close to the Kremlin told the Financial Times.

That unequal partnership was on display this week as Chinese President Xi Jinping met with Russian President Vladimir Putin, marking their first summit since Russia invaded Ukraine last year.

After Putin launched his war, the West largely cut off Russia from the global financial system and shunned its energy exports, forcing it to reroute its oil and gas to China and India.

Indeed, Chinese purchases of Russian energy jumped 54% to $81.3 billion last year, accounting for 40% of the Kremlin's budget revenue. And in January, Russia exported 2.7 billion cubic meters of natural gas to China, becoming its top supplier, according to data cited by the FT.

"The logic of events dictates that we fully become a Chinese resource colony," the source told the FT. "Our servers will be from Huawei. We will be China's major suppliers of everything. They will get gas from Power of Siberia. By the end of 2023, the yuan will be our main trade currency."

Russia sees its economic ties with China as the key to winning the war in Ukraine, the source said, adding that Beijing is crucial to weathering Western sanctions while Russian natural resources help lock in China's support.

Because Xi has laid diplomatic groundwork, China can still court Europe while allying itself with Russia:

Part of Xi’s calculation, sadly, is that he can get away with his support for Russia without losing European trade. Europe humiliates itself by kowtowing to Beijing despite its insouciant support for Putin’s hostilities on the EU’s eastern doorstep. The actions of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron make this abundantly clear. Visiting China last November with German car manufacturer executives, Beijing's Global Times newspaper saluted Scholz. It observed that the chancellor's "pragmatic approach will surely bring [German businesses] more dividends of China's development, which will help them get a head start in competition with other foreign investors in China."

Russia is handy for China with regard to hegemonic designs in the Pacific, too:

As the People's Republic of China approaches its 100th anniversary in 2049, the existence of Taiwan will transition from being a bleeding stain on the CCP's credibility to that of an arterial hemorrhage. Xi has told his People's Liberation Army to be ready to seize the island nation by 2027. The Russian alliance helps significantly in this plan. 

Russia now regularly deploys its navy alongside China’s in exercises around Japan. These displays of raw military power allow China to put pressure on the U.S. and its allies while also presenting China's aggressive intentions toward Taiwan as having multilateral support. While the Russian navy struggles with maintenance and readiness, it has experienced crews in command of advanced weapons systems, especially its submarines, which are highly competent and capable of evading even the U.S. and British forces.

Russia having opted to ensnare itself with an invasion of Ukraine, China is able to play the architect of a new, multipolar world-stage arrangement, as exemplified by its role as broker of re-established ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran. 

That move really served notice that China doesn't accept a US leadership role in the Mideast:

China has been pushing to challenge the U.S. role as the world’s superpower for years, and their success in securing the agreement weakens the U.S. position in the region. 

The United States has had longstanding but recently tense relations with Saudi Arabia, especially since the 2018 assassination of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, who criticized the Saudi regime. U.S. intelligence assessed in 2021 that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman approved an operation to kill or capture Khashoggi. 

The U.S. has had fraught relations with Iran for decades since the 1979 Iranian Revolution, making it likely impossible for the U.S. to arrange such a deal between the two Middle Eastern powers. 

China has meanwhile bought substantial amounts of oil from Saudi Arabia and stayed close to Iran. 

Some international affairs experts have said the agreement signals China is getting more involved in diplomatic engagement of the Middle East. 

“It should be a warning to U.S. policymakers: Leave the Middle East and abandon ties with sometimes frustrating, even barbarous, but long-standing allies, and you’ll simply be leaving a vacuum for China to fill,” said Jonathan Panikoff, the director of the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative for the Atlantic Council, in a Friday analysis. 

And Xi even felt emboldened to send a reminder to Putin which country is the alpha dog in their alliance right after their summit:

China's leader, Xi Jinping, has called a meeting of former-Soviet Central Asian countries, in an audacious power play in Russia's backyard the week of his summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Xi invited the leaders of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan to the first China-Central Asia summit on Wednesday, the AFP news agency reported. It remains unclear whether Turkmenistan has been invited.

The states are all former members of the Soviet Union, and Moscow has long regarded them as being in its sphere of influence after the Russian Empire conquered them in the 19th century.

So these two expansionist rogue states understand each other, shall we say. Whether their alliance would withstand any real stress tests or hair-raising near-mishaps better than a Five Families agreement remains to be seen.

But they, and the rogue states within their collective orbit, such as Iran, North Korea, Venezuela and Nicaragua, harbor no love for the rest of the world's notion of a stable and productive world order. They're driven by an entirely different set of values. 

 

 

 

 

 

A bracing world-stage snapshot

 Yes, I know much on the domestic front bears watching. All the drool-besotted, performative clowns in he House of Representatives (including George Santos, who is even too hot a potato for his fellow drool-besotted performative clowns) have their committee assignments. Kevin McCarthy is even speaking in a laudatory manner about Marjorie Taylor Greene ("I will always take care of her"). Nobody on either side of the aisle has the clarity, maturity or courage to address the real causes of the debt and deficit situation. The latest incident of police brutality, this one in Memphis, is leading, in clockwork fashion, to a fresh round of civil unrest. 

But some current developments on the world stage are enough to stand one's hair on end.

Let's start with this:

A four-star Air Force general sent a memo on Friday to the officers he commands that predicts the U.S. will be at war with China in two years and tells them to get ready to prep by firing "a clip" at a target, and "aim for the head."

In the memo sent Friday and obtained by NBC News, Gen. Mike Minihan, head of Air Mobility Command, said, “I hope I am wrong. My gut tells me will fight in 2025.” 

Air Mobility Command has nearly 50,000 service members and nearly 500 planes and is responsible for transport and refueling.

Minihan said in the memo that because both Taiwan and the U.S. will have presidential elections in 2024, the U.S. will be “distracted,” and Chinese President Xi Jinping will have an opportunity to move on Taiwan. 

I agree with Tom Nichols that the West must supply Ukraine with M1 Abrams and Leopard II tanks. Western nation really ought to send F-16s as well.  The stakes are existential. But Russia is, as one might expect, furious about it, becoming more explicit in its wider-war talk:

"There are constant statements from European capitals, from Washington, that the sending of various weapons systems, including tanks, to Ukraine in no way means the involvement of these countries or the alliance [NATO] in the hostilities that are taking place in Ukraine," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Thursday. "We categorically disagree with this... everything that the alliance I mentioned and the capital [Washington] does is perceived as direct involvement in the conflict, and we see that it is growing."

A senior Russian politician and ally of President Vladimir Putin cast a dire warning exactly one week ago of how Moscow might respond to a perceived military defeat in Ukraine.

"The defeat of a nuclear power in a conventional war can trigger a nuclear war," former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, who now serves as deputy chairman of the Security Council, said in a post on the Telegram messaging app.

North Korea is taking the opportunity to strengthen the notion of an alliance of rogue states:

North Korea condemned on Friday the decision by the United States to supply Ukraine with advanced battle tanks to help fight off Russia’s invasion, saying Washington is escalating a sinister “proxy war” aimed at destroying Moscow.

The comments by the influential sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un underscored the country’s deepening alignment with Russia over the war in Ukraine as it confronts the United States and its Asian allies over its own growing nuclear weapons and missiles program.

North Korea has blamed the United States for the crisis in Ukraine, insisting that the West’s “hegemonic policy” forced Russia to take military action to protect its security interests. 

It has also used the distraction created by the war to accelerate its own weapons development, test-firing more than 70 missiles in 2022 alone, including potentially nuclear-capable weapons believed able to target South Korea and the U.S. mainland.

 

 

She elaborates:

 Kim said the Biden administration was “further crossing the red line” by sending its main tanks to Ukraine and that the decision reflects a “sinister intention to realize its hegemonic aim by further expanding the proxy war for destroying Russia.”

“The U.S. is the arch criminal which poses serious threat and challenge to the strategic security of Russia and pushes the regional situation to the present grave phase,” she said.

“I do not doubt that any military hardware the U.S. and the West boast of will be burnt into pieces in the face of the indomitable fighting spirit and might of the heroic Russian army and people,” she said, adding that North Korea will always “stand in the same trench” with Russia. 

North Korea is the only nation other than Russia and Syria to recognize the independence of Donetsk and Luhansk, two Russian-backed separatist regions in eastern Ukraine, and has also hinted at plans to send workers there to help with rebuilding efforts. 

Tensions between Israelis and Palestinians have been heating up again, to levels not seen in years.  

The situation is not helped by the fact that conservative-leaning political parties in Israel have of late been skewing toward the kind of nutty populism we see out of, say, Hungary, or the U.S. Republican Party. Netanyahu is trying to tamp down the crazy to some extent:

For now, Mr. Netanyahu has restrained some of his more hard-line ministers from fully exerting their will in the West Bank.

This month, he ignored demands from Bezalel Smotrich, a far-right minister, to stop the army from evicting an unauthorized Israeli settlement in the territory. But it is unclear how long he can continue to deny his coalition partner: He has promised to give Mr. Smotrich power over the military department that oversees construction and demolition in Israeli-administered parts of the territory.

We shall see how that goes. On Friday, the Jerusalem Post gave column space to a speculation about how close the country is to civil war. 

And there's the development I noted here the other day: Iran's intention to station warships in the Panama Canal. 

So let's keep our distractions under control. A number of people are emotionally invested in the outcome of the AFC championship and the Super Bowl. Awards season is getting underway for the entertainment industry. There's always some cool new restaurant to try. Our dogs and cats are cute.

The backdrop for such pleasantries merits out attention, though. Serious people with evil intent are not resting. Our times are as historic as any we've lived through or read about. 

This is kind of a big deal

 One of the West's most agenda-driven enemies has upped its presence right here in our hemisphere in an eye-opening way:

Iran's navy is set to station warships for the first time in the Panama Canal, a critical trade route in America's backyard that has never before seen an Iranian military presence.

Rear Admiral Shahram Irani, the commander of Iran's navy, said on Wednesday that his forces will establish a presence in the Panama Canal later this year, marking the first time Iran's military has entered the Pacific Ocean.

Iran in recent years has placed a greater focus on moving its military into Latin American territories as it strengthens relations with anti-American dictators in the region, most notably in Venezuela. Iranian vessels have docked more frequently in Venezuela as Tehran's hardline regime seeks to prop up dictator Nicolás Maduro. These moves are meant to provoke the United States and signal that Tehran has the ability to station its military apparatus a stone's throw from U.S. territory.

Joseph Humire, a national security analyst who focuses on Latin American issues as executive director of the Center for a Secure Free Society think tank, said Iran has been laying the groundwork for this type of voyage by holding joint exercises with allies such as Russia and China, two nations that have also been strengthening their ties with Latin American countries.

"This is what Iran has been building in Latin America for the past 30 or 40 years" by establishing embassies and bilateral agreements with a host of nations, Humire said.

Iran's goal "has always been to have a military presence in Latin America, so it's not surprising at all for its navy to announce it's going to make moves on the Panama Canal," Humire said, noting that in addition to Venezuela and Nicaragua, Iran has opened relations with Colombia.

"This is a tremendous escalation if it is to happen," Humire said. "Many people may discount Iran in terms of its capabilities … but I would not discount it because they have been building to this for a very long time."

I know that several camps will have their say as Congress deliberates a defense budget, but let us hope that those who understand the magnitude of the threats characterizing the lay of the land at the outset of 2023 prevail. This is no time for posturing. North Korea tested an unprecedented 95 missiles last year. Russia continues to diminish any chances it has of joining the community of civilized nations that prize international order with its atrocity-driven assault on Ukraine, and the risk of nuclear consequences continues to rise. China continues to breathe down Taiwan's neck.

It would be nice if we had enough of a sense of national unity to seriously understand the stakes, but we'll take what we can get. As I say, a US defense budget based on adult priorities would be a good start.

 

Thoughts on Pelosi visiting Taiwan

 She can't really not go now, can she?

The entire Asian trip, with an itinerary that includes such key Pacific rim allies as Japan and South Korea, was supposed to happen in April but got delayed due to COVID. And the rhetoric from China has been ratcheting up ever since the trip has been rescheduled. Hu Xijin, a prominent commentator for Global Times, has tweeted that shooting down Pelosi's plane is an option if her trip includes a stop in Taipei. 

It's a done deal, as far as the Taiwanese government is concerned.  She's expected to stay overnight.

The Biden administration is not so keen on the idea, of course, but it can't stop her. The three branches of our government are coequal. 

tLots of seasoned observers of the world stage caution against it, and they have a point. It's a high-stakes gambit, for sure. It raises that age-old question of when and where, if at all, to make irreversible changes to the global balance of power.

China is not currently the only adversary rattling a saber in an alarming manner. Russia and North Korea are mentioning nuclear war as part of their rhetoric. Iran is enriching uranium to levels sufficient for nuclear breakout.

Consider, though, the viewpoint of Senator Ben Sasse, one of the last remaining persons of principle and depth in the U.S. government:

“Speaker Pelosi should go to Taiwan and President Biden should make it abundantly clear to Chairman Xi that there’s not a damn thing the Chinese Communist Party can do about it. No more feebleness and self-deterrence. This is very simple: Taiwan is an ally and the Speaker of the House of Representatives should meet with the Taiwanese men and women who stare down the threat of Communist China.”

He has a point, too. If, at some point, the U.S. does not demonstrate leadership and loyalty to that portion of the world that shares our basic values, the bad guys run the place.

Op-ed writers, buy definition, are expected to offer conclusive opinions on matters such as this. Since this is a blog, I don't feel constrained in that way.

There are downsides to either choice that the House speaker makes. And she either will or she won't stop by Taiwan on her trip. 

I just hope that American society can see now that the era of corporate joint ventures, student visas and supply chains heavily dependent on the People's Republic of China ought to be behind us. China only ever opened up to the West for its own advantage. It remains the snake in the grass it's been since 1949.

China's getting pretty explicit about its aims

 Hey, neighbors, how about joining us in a little agreement? It's perfectly innocuous:

China wants 10 small Pacific nations to endorse a sweeping agreement covering everything from security to fisheries in what one leader warns is a “game-changing” bid by Beijing to wrest control of the region.

A draft of the agreement obtained by The Associated Press shows that China wants to train Pacific police officers, team up on “traditional and non-traditional security" and expand law enforcement cooperation.

China also wants to jointly develop a marine plan for fisheries — which would include the Pacific's lucrative tuna catch — increase cooperation on running the region's internet networks, and set up cultural Confucius Institutes and classrooms. China also mentions the possibility of setting up a free trade area with the Pacific nations.

China’s move comes as Foreign Minister Wang Yi and a 20-strong delegation begin a visit to the region this week.

Wang is visiting seven of the countries he hopes will endorse the “Common Development Vision” — the Solomon Islands, Kiribati, Samoa, Fiji, Tonga, Vanuatu, and Papua New Guinea.

Wang is also holding virtual meetings with the other three potential signatories — the Cook Islands, Niue and the Federated States of Micronesia. He is hoping the countries will endorse the pre-written agreement as part of a joint communique after a scheduled May 30 meeting in Fiji he is holding with the foreign ministers from each of the 10 countries.

One of the invitees ain't sold on the idea:

But Micronesia’s President David Panuelo has written an eight-page letter to the leaders of other Pacific nations saying his nation won't be endorsing the plan and warning of dire consequences if others do.

Panuelo said in his letter, which the AP has obtained, that behind attractive words in the agreement like “equity” and “justice” are many worrying details.

Among other concerns, he said, is that the agreement opens the door for China to own and control the region's fisheries and communications infrastructure. He said China could intercept emails and listen in on phone calls.

Panuelo said in his letter that the agreement is “an intent to shift those of us with diplomatic relations with China very close to Beijing’s orbit, intrinsically tying the whole of our economies and societies to them.”

He warns the agreement would needlessly heighten geopolitical tensions and threaten regional stability.

In his letter, Panuelo said the Common Development Vision is “the single most game-changing proposed agreement in the Pacific in any of our lifetimes,” and it “threatens to bring a new Cold War era at best, and a World War at worst.”

I concluded yesterday's Precipice piece on the Biden administration's foreign policy with this concern:

My concern is whether or not anyone with a foreign-policy-related portfolio in the administration truly grasps the magnitude of the foundational changes happening to the overall world order. The way things have been for the past seventy-seven years is not the way they’re going to be going forward. The world stage is not going to be the nice, safe environment for trade and cultural exchange to which we’ve become accustomed. It’s going to be a lot more raw now.

Mackenzie Eaglin of the American Enterprise Institute is likewise concerned, and far more equipped that I to flesh it our with details:

America’s military leaders state time and again that China’s forcible assault on Taiwan, and therefore our response to it, is a near-term challenge. Given the lengthy time to plan, program, build and field credible combat power, a 2027 problem is really one of today. Alarm bells should be ringing in Congress as the president’s latest defense budget cuts readiness.

Given that ongoing support for Ukraine is straining some key U.S. military supplies and munitions, everyone should be concerned the China fight would demand even more and faster. As this Pentagon team is plagued with “next war-itis” by overly biasing research and development dollarsto prepare for future wars over purchasing from hot production lines today, the result is the erosion of our few remaining competitive advantages.

For fiscal 2023, the administration requested $119.4 billion in readiness compared to the fiscal 2022 request of $109 billion. The 9.84% increase is a decrease in real terms. To simply match 2019 (pre-pandemic) purchasing power under the 2.2% inflationary estimates that the Pentagon and White House are using to tout a “record” budget, the military would need to invest $133.84 billion. That still would only be a flat budget under today’s inflation.

The Army, Navy and Air Force are confronting a $26 billion gap between what the budget request provides them once adjusted for inflation and the levels of funding they would need to maintain buying power at 2019 levels.

In 2013, similar across-the-board cuts came in the form of sequestration, or a self-imposed spending freeze that disproportionately harmed the military due to inaction by politicians on debt reduction. Uniformed leaders described the abrupt cuts as the “biggest challenge to the military’s readiness.” The result is not “tough but necessary choices,” but rather destructive early decommissionings and retirements, along with extended deployments and unsafe work environments for troops.

The administration is shooting itself in the foot by not sustaining the readiness of the very systems they seek to modernize. By overusing systems and facilities without adequate maintenance, they won’t be prepared for modernization upgrades once they become available. In other words, lack of sustainment delays innovation implementation.

China's hegemonic ambitions are not a sometime-down-the-road thing. We'd better get hustling. 

UPDATE: China and Russia conducted a joint military exercise while Biden is in Tokyo visiting with Asian heads of state.