China, Russia and the nature of their alliance / understanding

 A year ago, the Putin regime made up its mind that it would embrace pariah status. What would be required to restore Russia's ability to be accepted in polite company on the world stage is pretty much inconceivable. 

China is every bit as much of a rogue nation as Russia, but Xi's savvy and energetic diplomacy moves have positioned it better strategically.

Russia goes more for in-your-face belligerence:

Russia could have its most powerful and quiet nuclear attack submarines on persistent patrols off either U.S. Coast in the next two years, the head of U.S. Northern Command told the Senate Armed Services Committee on Thursday.

In response to questions from Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) on the threat of Chinese and Russian cruise missile submarines operating close to the U.S., NORTHCOM commander Gen. Glen VanHerck said that the deployments of the Russian Yasen-class nuclear cruise missile attack boats have been deploying more frequently.

“[The risk is] absolutely increasing. Within the last year, Russia has also placed their [Yasens] in the Pacific,” he said.
“Now not only the Atlantic, but we also have them in the Pacific and it’s just a matter of time – probably a year or two – before that’s a persistent threat, 24 hours a day. … That impact has reduced decision space for a national senior leader in a time of crisis.”

Also known by their NATO reporting name Severodvinsk class, the 13,800-ton Yasen-class attack boats are among the most capable submarines in the world. In particular, the three current boats in the class are capable of a special quiet operations mode that make them difficult to detect in the open ocean. In 2018, the lead boat in the class, Severodvinsk, evaded U.S. efforts to find it for weeks, according to press reports.

Navy officials have told USNI News that the service has become increasingly concerned with the efficacy of the Russian submarine force.

The growing ability of Russian submarines to operate undetected in the Atlantic pushed the Navy to reactivate U.S. 2nd Fleet and create a command for anti-submarine warfare across the Atlantic in 2018.

The Russian Navy has planned to build ten Yasen-class attack boats, with the fourth to commission later this year, according to Russian press reports.

Medvedev further ratchets up the rhetoric:

Dmitry Medvedev, the 57-year-old deputy secretary of Russia’s Security Council chaired by Putin, said in video remarks to reporters that Russia’s relations with the West have hit an all-time low.

Asked whether the threat of a nuclear conflict has eased, Medvedev responded: “No, it hasn’t decreased, it has grown. Every day when they provide Ukraine with foreign weapons brings the nuclear apocalypse closer.”

 

Russia can still count China among its friends. What is each side getting from it? China procures energy from Russia, and Russia pockets cash:

Russia will increasingly be a commodities warehouse for China as Moscow grows more economically dependent on Beijing, a source close to the Kremlin told the Financial Times.

That unequal partnership was on display this week as Chinese President Xi Jinping met with Russian President Vladimir Putin, marking their first summit since Russia invaded Ukraine last year.

After Putin launched his war, the West largely cut off Russia from the global financial system and shunned its energy exports, forcing it to reroute its oil and gas to China and India.

Indeed, Chinese purchases of Russian energy jumped 54% to $81.3 billion last year, accounting for 40% of the Kremlin's budget revenue. And in January, Russia exported 2.7 billion cubic meters of natural gas to China, becoming its top supplier, according to data cited by the FT.

"The logic of events dictates that we fully become a Chinese resource colony," the source told the FT. "Our servers will be from Huawei. We will be China's major suppliers of everything. They will get gas from Power of Siberia. By the end of 2023, the yuan will be our main trade currency."

Russia sees its economic ties with China as the key to winning the war in Ukraine, the source said, adding that Beijing is crucial to weathering Western sanctions while Russian natural resources help lock in China's support.

Because Xi has laid diplomatic groundwork, China can still court Europe while allying itself with Russia:

Part of Xi’s calculation, sadly, is that he can get away with his support for Russia without losing European trade. Europe humiliates itself by kowtowing to Beijing despite its insouciant support for Putin’s hostilities on the EU’s eastern doorstep. The actions of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron make this abundantly clear. Visiting China last November with German car manufacturer executives, Beijing's Global Times newspaper saluted Scholz. It observed that the chancellor's "pragmatic approach will surely bring [German businesses] more dividends of China's development, which will help them get a head start in competition with other foreign investors in China."

Russia is handy for China with regard to hegemonic designs in the Pacific, too:

As the People's Republic of China approaches its 100th anniversary in 2049, the existence of Taiwan will transition from being a bleeding stain on the CCP's credibility to that of an arterial hemorrhage. Xi has told his People's Liberation Army to be ready to seize the island nation by 2027. The Russian alliance helps significantly in this plan. 

Russia now regularly deploys its navy alongside China’s in exercises around Japan. These displays of raw military power allow China to put pressure on the U.S. and its allies while also presenting China's aggressive intentions toward Taiwan as having multilateral support. While the Russian navy struggles with maintenance and readiness, it has experienced crews in command of advanced weapons systems, especially its submarines, which are highly competent and capable of evading even the U.S. and British forces.

Russia having opted to ensnare itself with an invasion of Ukraine, China is able to play the architect of a new, multipolar world-stage arrangement, as exemplified by its role as broker of re-established ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran. 

That move really served notice that China doesn't accept a US leadership role in the Mideast:

China has been pushing to challenge the U.S. role as the world’s superpower for years, and their success in securing the agreement weakens the U.S. position in the region. 

The United States has had longstanding but recently tense relations with Saudi Arabia, especially since the 2018 assassination of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, who criticized the Saudi regime. U.S. intelligence assessed in 2021 that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman approved an operation to kill or capture Khashoggi. 

The U.S. has had fraught relations with Iran for decades since the 1979 Iranian Revolution, making it likely impossible for the U.S. to arrange such a deal between the two Middle Eastern powers. 

China has meanwhile bought substantial amounts of oil from Saudi Arabia and stayed close to Iran. 

Some international affairs experts have said the agreement signals China is getting more involved in diplomatic engagement of the Middle East. 

“It should be a warning to U.S. policymakers: Leave the Middle East and abandon ties with sometimes frustrating, even barbarous, but long-standing allies, and you’ll simply be leaving a vacuum for China to fill,” said Jonathan Panikoff, the director of the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative for the Atlantic Council, in a Friday analysis. 

And Xi even felt emboldened to send a reminder to Putin which country is the alpha dog in their alliance right after their summit:

China's leader, Xi Jinping, has called a meeting of former-Soviet Central Asian countries, in an audacious power play in Russia's backyard the week of his summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Xi invited the leaders of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan to the first China-Central Asia summit on Wednesday, the AFP news agency reported. It remains unclear whether Turkmenistan has been invited.

The states are all former members of the Soviet Union, and Moscow has long regarded them as being in its sphere of influence after the Russian Empire conquered them in the 19th century.

So these two expansionist rogue states understand each other, shall we say. Whether their alliance would withstand any real stress tests or hair-raising near-mishaps better than a Five Families agreement remains to be seen.

But they, and the rogue states within their collective orbit, such as Iran, North Korea, Venezuela and Nicaragua, harbor no love for the rest of the world's notion of a stable and productive world order. They're driven by an entirely different set of values.