Thursday, March 9, 2023

I'd love to see Jennifer Rumsey and Steven Koonin sit down for a conversation about net zero

 Cummins, Inc. which characterizes itself as a "leader in global power technology," had been teasing the public for weeks, in the form of Facebook posts and highway billboards, with a major development the company intended to unveil on March 8.

This being the 9th, we now know what the development was. We now know that it is 

the launch of Accelera by Cummins, a new brand for its New Power business unit. Accelera provides a diverse portfolio of zero-emissions solutions for many of the world’s most vital industries empowering customers to accelerate their transition to a sustainable future. 

The launch of Accelera is a significant step forward in Cummins’ efforts to achieve its Destination Zero strategy, focused on evolving Cummins technologies to reach zero emissions across its product portfolio. Cummins’ Destination Zero strategy is rooted in the understanding that multiple solutions are required to achieve industry-wide decarbonization across the diverse applications the company powers. Over the past several years, Cummins has invested more than $1.5 billion in research and technology, capital and acquisitions to build Accelera’s leadership and technological capabilities. Accelera is now a global leader in zero-emissions technologies, providing battery electric and fuel cell electric solutions across commercial and industrial applications with hundreds of electrolyzers generating hydrogen around the world today. 

“Achieving our goal of reaching net-zero emissions by 2050 requires leveraging our entire portfolio of businesses,” said Jennifer Rumsey, Cummins President and Chief Executive Officer. “As we have continued to lead in and advance the engine-based solutions that power our customers’ businesses, we have also built the broadest combination of zero-emissions technologies dedicated to the commercial vehicle industry like battery electric and fuel cell electric powertrain solutions and electrolyzers for green hydrogen production. Establishing Accelera reinforces our commitment to leading in zero-emissions solutions and highlights our unmatched ability to leverage our deep understanding of our customers’ needs and applications, technical expertise and extensive service and support network to walk hand in hand with our customers throughout the energy transition.” 

Accelera is advancing a range of zero-emissions solutions, including hydrogen fuel cells, batteries, e-axles, traction systems and electrolyzers, to sustainably power a variety of industries from commercial transportation to chemical production. Both a components supplier and integrator, Accelera is decarbonizing applications like buses, trucks, trains, construction equipment, stationary power and carbon intense industrial processes. 

Now, Cummins employs some of the best and brightest, and has some notable concrete efforts to show for its net-zero zeal:

Recent zero-emissions highlights that Accelera will continue to build on include:

  • Completing the acquisition of Meritor, Inc., and Siemens Commercial Vehicle business to advance electric powertrain solutions 
  • Increasing global electrolyzer manufacturing capacity with gigawatt-scalable plants in Fridley, Minnesota – its first in the United States – and in Spain (now under construction)
  • Powering the world’s largest proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolyzer in  operation in the world in Bécancour, Canada
  • Powering the world’s first hydrogen refueling station for ships, cars, trucks and industrial customers in Antwerp, Belgium
  • Powering the world’s first megawatt-scale demonstration plant for storing wind energy in the natural gas grid in Windgas Falkenhagen, Germany
  • Powering the world’s first fleets of hydrogen fuel cell passenger trains in Germany
  • Deploying four hydrogen-fuel-cell-powered class 8 heavy-duty trucks with several marquis fleet customers in the United States
  • Powering 52 fuel cell city buses in Lingang, Shanghai
  • Powering refuse trucks with FAUN across Europe

Impressive stuff. But theoretical physicist and American Enterprise Institute fellow Steven Koonin, in an interview with Genn Loury, casts doubt on whether such measures are going to be adequate to Cummins's vision:

Now, what about the Paris Accords, the possibility of international diplomacy being able to get the Chinese and the Indians and the Europeans and the North Americans all on the same page on this? I mean, particularly in light of what you just observed about the fact that most of humanity has yet to fully empower itself to enjoy the benefits of the modern technological civilization that we take for granted, which depends on fossil fuels.

Ain't gonna happen, all right? We're not gonna reduce, we're not gonna go to zero certainly by 2050. Even John Kerry admits that now. And we're not gonna go to zero globally certainly before the end of this century.

Oh, excuse me. Can you just explain to people what “go to zero” means?

Okay, so the world emits a certain amount of greenhouse gases, mostly carbon dioxide, every year. Most of that emission is due to the burning of fossil fuels. Because the world is developing and the population is increasing, the amount of fossil fuels we burn every year goes up, has been going up at about one-and-a-half percent a year. In order to stabilize—not reduce but just stabilize—human influences on those emissions have to go to zero. If you want to stabilize the climate, allegedly, at one-and-a-half degrees temperature rise, it needs to go to zero by 2050. If you go to zero more slowly, the temperature will be higher, they say. 

So the goal, the political goal, the goal of the Paris Accord is to get to zero some time in the latter half of this century, globally. That means no emissions of fossil fuels used in the conventional way. Also, by the way, you gotta fix agriculture, which accounts for about 25% of emissions. But basically to get to an emissions-free world by 2050 or 2100. So that's kind of the goal. 

But if you look at the drivers, the development, the rate of change of technology, the somewhat modest increase in population expected over the next 80 years, there's just no way that's gonna happen. And you can understand that from the point of view of the Chinese or the Indian. Their overwhelming priority is to get enough energy for their people so that they can improve their lives. But the issue of, well, something might happen to the climate a hundred years from now is just not particularly important relative to that overwhelming need.

A whole lot of effort is being expended to address something that is not a crisis.

And there's a whole lot of the world that would like to enjoy the Western standard of living. Leapfrogging over the employment of the energy forms that made that standard of living possible isn't going to achieve that.

Cheap, dense and ready available energy is still the foremost kind. 


 

 


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