Wednesday, December 2, 2015

Here's a Russian who is one good chess player

Amir Tahiri says that Putin had three aims in mind when he visited Tehran recently:

 The first of these was to show that Russia recognizes the “Supreme Guide” Ali Khamenei as the ultimate decision-maker in the Islamic Republic.
Western leaders often blame Iran’s “unelected officials”, meaning the “Supreme Guide”, for the Islamic Republic’s adventurism on the international stage. They delude themselves by thinking they could obtain better deals from “elected officials”, meaning the President of the Islamic Republic. Based on that analysis, Western leaders, notably successive US presidents tried to strike deals with a string of men who served as president in the Khomeinist regime- from the hapless Abol-Hassan Banisadr to the enigmatic Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and passing by the crafty Hashemi Rafsanjani. Their current hopes are pinned on President Hassan Rouhani, a protégé of Rafsanjani.
The Western analysis is wrong because of two reasons at least. The first is that the words elected and un-elected don’t mean the same thing in the Islamic Republic as they do in Western democracies. This is because only those authorized by the regime are allowed to be candidates. Even then, the pre-selected candidates of the regime cannot hope to win unless their “victory” is endorsed by a 12-man body of mullahs.
Thus to suggest that Rouhani is the “elected” president of Iran requires a certain sense of humor. (Rouhani’s patron, Rafsanjani, was not allowed to even become a candidate last time!) At the same time, Khamenei can claim to be as much “elected” as Rouhani or anyone else in the Khomeinist system. This is because the “Supreme Guide” is elected by the Assembly of Experts, which itself is elected by the people in the same fraudulent way that the president is elected. Thus, in the Islamic Republic all top officials are elected; only the elections are not genuine.
As a veteran of the Soviet system, Putin understands that perfectly. Leonid Brezhnev, too, was elected in the same way as Josef Stalin had been and Khamenei is today. With the Soviet Union having turned to dust long ago, Putin has rebranded himself as a Russian nationalist. In that capacity, too, Putin understands the nature of despotic systems in which authority is always personal, never institutional.


When he wants to, Vlad can display some impressive diplomacy chops:

Unlike leaders of Western democracies, Putin has no difficulty understanding the Khomeinist system. This is why he went out of his way to pay respect to Khamenei. To start with he agreed to ride in a bullet-proof Mercedes sent for him by Khamenei to the airport (Putin had brought his own bullet-proof Zyl, but didn’t use it). He drove directly to Khamenei’s palace, ignoring the welcoming ceremony prepared by the rudderless Rouhani. The Russian spent almost eight hours in Tehran of which one and a half was devoted to the “Supreme Guide”.
Again, contrary to protocol, Putin brought a gift for Khamenei, a 300-year old copy of the Koran. (Gifts are exchanged by heads of states only on state visits; this was not one of them). The Russian showered praise on Khamenei and made it clear it was only with him that Moscow would deal with on all key issues of international and bilateral relations.
That Khamenei was seduced by Putin’s show is clear from a long editorial in Kayhan, the daily that reflects the views of the “Supreme Guide”. “Putin’s intelligent move has provoked wonder and consternation in European and American circles” it said. By paying homage to Khamenei, the Russian leader wanted to show that an alliance with the Islamic Republic was a top priority of Russia’s new global strategy. Kayhan also increased the length of the meeting by half an hour, from 90 minutes to two hours, to heighten its importance!
Aim two:

Putin’s second objective was to throw a monkey wrench in what he thinks is the American game-plan for Iran over the next five years. In a few hours, Putin virtually destroyed President Barack Obama’s hope that the supposedly pro-American faction, led by Rafsanjani with Rouhani as its current field-man, might marginalize Khamenei and lead Iran in a different direction.
Aim three:

Finally, Putin wanted to send a message to others in the region and beyond that while alliance with the United States, a fickle friend, leads only to disappointment and grief, cultivating Russian friendship is a wiser strategy. On the surface, Putin achieved all three objectives in Tehran. However, only time will show whether those objectives were even worth reaching for. 

Seems to get more results than reset, greater flexibility and outstretched hands.
 
 


6 comments:

  1. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  2. Please, let's not be silly. The point is that Iran, an evil regime that is a mortal enemy of the US, whether the MEC and Global-Test think so or not, has been legitimized as a regional power, and Russia, which has been behaving as an adversary of the US in recent years, has not only bolstered that legitimacy, but used it for its own aims, aims that run counter to those of the US. In short, it further erodes whatever is left of the US's leadership role on the world stage.

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  3. WWTD?

    "I doubt I'd support Donald. I doubt I'd support the Democrat," Kristol said. "I think I'd support getting someone good on the ballot as a third-party candidate."Kristol told CNN that he would like to see former Vice President Dick Cheney or Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR) run as independents in 2016. The pro-war, pro-torture, pro-creating-horrific-disasters-via-feats-of-unparallelled-incompetence establishment contingent of the Republican Party declaring that they were fine with all that other stuff, but this boorish Donald Trump fellow is just too much?

    Run, Dick, Run.

    *What Would Trump Do?

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  4. Ah, we have arrived at that moment when the commenter knows he has begun the thread with a silly, vacuous, willfully ignorant assertion and attempts, when called on it, to deflect and digress. No attempt to address the geo-strategic considerations that have been pointed out to him. And so we're left with irrelevant utter goofiness like "run Dick run" and "What would Trump do?"

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  5. You don't say? Ooh.. Is it not legitimate to ask? He's trouncing your ilk and could be the heir apparent. Still wondering why Dick didn't run in 0
    '08 but it is pretty clear that he could not have been elected dog catcher then. Now I see where Paul Ryan is trying to trumpet that your ilk were right, as of course you are. We'll see. Hillie has a lot of people believing in the good old days before your ilk took the stage. No doubt you will go bonkers for at least another four years if enough attacks do not happen here between now and election day. The fight against terrorisim will continue meanwhile.

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