Monday, October 14, 2019

The Very Stable Genius tweets dangerous speculation and premature exuberance

Re: the dangerous speculation:

....Kurds may be releasing some to get us involved. Easily recaptured by Turkey or European Nations from where many came, but they should move quickly. Big sanctions on Turkey coming! Do people really think we should go to war with NATO Member Turkey? Never ending wars will end!

Oh, really? Is there some kind of unclassified intelligence document that can provide some specifics on this possibility that Kurds (which Kurds? the ones we'd been allied with?) are releasing ISIS fighters? To get us involved? Are you prepared to back up your raising of such a cynicism-driven possibility?

And "easily captured?" Hordes of fiercely determined jihadists, who are immediately hooking back up to their network of support?

And the juxtaposition between the assurance of "big sanctions" (which he's previously assured us will "obliterate" Turkey's economy) with the question of whether we should go to war with Turkey is a classic example of the VSG's jumbled worldview. Who has raised the possibility of war with Turkey? The old "oh-you'd-probably-like-us-to-go-to-war-with-this-nation-state-we're-having-difficulties-with" smokescreen gets raised by lazy minds hoping a false dichotomy will shut down any examination of actual policy options. On the other hand, why would the possibility of obliterating Turkey's economy (a pretty hostile act against a country that the VSG is quick to remind us is a NATO member) even need to be raised if the whole matter of Turkey's intention to invade Syria had been handled deftly and firmly - in that phone call with Erdogan or before?

And then there is the VSG's crowing about how the preliminary sort-of trade deal with China is some kind of historic development:


My deal with China is that they will IMMEDIATELY start buying very large quantities of our Agricultural Product, not wait until the deal is signed over the next 3 or 4 weeks. THEY HAVE ALREADY STARTED! Likewise financial services and other deal aspects, start preparing....
....I agreed not to increase Tariffs from 25% to 30% on October 15th. They will remain at 25%. The relationship with China is very good. We will finish out the large Phase One part of the deal, then head directly into Phase Two. The Phase One Deal can be finalized & signed soon!
Not so fast, say those on the Chinese side of the negotiations:

China wants to hold more talks this month to hammer out the details of the “phase one” trade deal touted by Donald Trump before Xi Jinping agrees to sign it, according to people familiar with the matter.
Beijing may send a delegation led by Vice Premier Liu He, China’s top negotiator, to finalize a written deal that could be signed by the presidents at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit next month in Chile, one of the people said. Another person said China also wants Trump to scrap a planned tariff hike in December in addition to the hike scheduled for this week, something the administration hasn’t yet endorsed. The people asked not to be named discussing the private negotiations.
The S&P 500 Index was little changed, Europe’s Stoxx 600 fell and the yen rose as investors grew pessimistic on the handshake deal. The yuan pared much of its earlier gains offshore.
The U.S. and China have emerged from last week’s talks with different takes on what’s in the accord and how close they are to signing a document. Trump said “we’ve come to a deal, pretty much, subject to getting it written” and indicated it might take several more weeks of negotiation. China’s Ministry of Commerce merely said that “the two sides have made substantial progress” and “agreed to work together in the direction of a final agreement.” The state-run Xinhua news agency didn’t mention a deal either.
And:

Statements about the deal in Chinese media are much more reserved than the president’s comments. China Daily, an official state newspaper, said, “While the negotiations do appear to have produced a fundamental understanding on the key issues and the broader benefits of friendly relations, the Champagne should probably be kept on ice, at least until the two presidents put pen to paper.”
The paper hinted that President Trump may change his mind on the deal before a formal agreement is reached, saying, “As based on its past practice, there is always the possibility that Washington may decide to cancel the deal if it thinks that doing so will better serve its interests.” 
There is quite a chasm between the world according to the VSG and actual reality.



2 comments:

  1. He has added hawks like Bolton to his list of advisors and a past president he does everything he can to do the opposite of, regardless of the soundness of the move. Presiding by ego. He'd a stuck it to Netanyahu too if Obama had kissed his behind. Perhaps he still will. Hope so!

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  2. You'll notice that Bolton had a strained relationship with him and is now gone. Most of his security, defense and foreign-policy advisors have relatively short tenures.

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