The Very Stable Genius is blowing smoke in his boasts about protectionism having good effects

Excellent Veronique De Rugby column today at Townhall:

In his book "The Art of the Deal," President Donald Trump described his communication style as "truthful hyperbole." Hyperbole, sure. Truthful, questionable. Take Trump's recent speech in Pennsylvania where he declared that his tariffs had turned things around for the domestic steel industry. He also claimed the unratified United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement -- USMCA or the new NAFTA -- and his steep Chinese tariffs would also bring jobs back to the United States. Are the Trump trade policies bringing about a manufacturing revival?

Over the course of the last year and a half, the administration has imposed tariffs on metals, along with many other intermediate and final goods. Part of the USMCA would require that more auto parts be made in the United States and more compensation be subjected to higher minimum wages in order to benefit from the zero tariff rate between Mexico, the United States and Canada. When faced with a steep penalty for buying foreign goods, the belief is that consumers and both foreign and domestic companies producing goods in the United States will have no choice but to buy everything they need here at home.

That's unlikely. There's a reason why businesses set up their supply chains globally instead of domestically. It allows them to get the highest quality parts for the lowest prices. When production becomes more expensive in the United States, businesses raise their prices and are less competitive.

She points out that the positive impact of the tax cuts is now winding down. Just in time for new taxation in the form of tariffs.

And is all this protectionism bringing back jobs? Um . . .

While the Trump administration is always happy to brag about anecdotal cases of companies relocating to the United States, the actual overall numbers tell a different story. For instance, Toyota recently announced a large U.S. investment, though the rate of foreign investment here -- including investment from Japan -- has slowed under Trump. Constant uncertainty about the trade war, new Chinese tariffs, the threat of additional auto tariffs and the global slowdown played a prominent role in this decline.

Chinese tariffs have also failed to bring back jobs. The data show that in most cases, when firms move out of China, they aren't relocating to the United States, but to Southeast Asia. Even the U.S. Commerce Department acknowledges that tariffs are a "challenge" for companies wanting to move production to the United States.

More troublesome for Trump is the fact that the manufacturing sector is showing signs of a slowdown. The latest U.S. jobs report showed manufacturing employment rose by "an average of 8,000 jobs per month so far in 2019," compared to an increase of 22,000 jobs per month in the sector during 2018. A recent survey shows manufacturing contracting in August. Even the heavily protected steel and aluminum sectors have started to see a decline in jobs this year. 

The throne-sniffers like to point out the fact that China's ambitions, deviousness and core totalitarian ruthlessness necessitate countermeasures, which is true, but interfering in how private organizations conduct their affairs is not the way to go about it.