Tuesday, September 24, 2019

The consensus grows that Iran blatantly attacked Saudi Arabia

There's an avalanche of breaking developments this afternoon, and so there are going to be a flurry of LITD posts in short order, but I think I'll lead off with this rather remarkable joint statement by the leaders of France, the UK and Germany:

We, the leaders of France, Germany and the United Kingdom, recall our shared common security interests, in particular upholding the global non-proliferation regime and preserving stability in the Middle East.
We condemn in the strongest terms the attacks on oil facilities on Saudi territory on September 14th, 2019 in Abqaiq and Khurais, and reaffirm in this context our full solidarity with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and its population.
It is clear to us that Iran bears responsibility for this attack. There is no other plausible explanation. We support ongoing investigations to establish further details.
These attacks may have been against Saudi Arabia but they concern all countries and increase the risk of a major conflict. They underline the importance of making collective efforts towards regional stability and security, including finding a political solution to the ongoing conflict in Yemen. The attacks also highlight the necessity of de-escalation in the region through sustained diplomatic efforts and engagement with all parties.
In this regard, we recall our continued commitment to the JCPoA, agreed with Iran on July 14th, 2015 and unanimously endorsed by the UN Security Council. We urge Iran once again to reverse its decisions to reduce compliance with the deal and to adhere fully to its commitments under it. We call upon Iran to cooperate fully with the IAEA in the framework of the JCPoA and its Comprehensive Safeguards Agreement.
Conscious of the importance of collective efforts to guarantee regional stability and security, we reiterate our conviction that the time has come for Iran to accept negotiation on a long-term framework for its nuclear programme as well as on issues related to regional security, including its missiles programme and other means of delivery.
We are committed to continuing our diplomatic efforts to create conditions and facilitate dialogue with all relevant partners interested in de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East, in the interest of preserving international peace and security, building upon our joint declaration on July 14th, 2019 and G7 conclusions adopted in Biarritz. We urge Iran to engage in such a dialogue and refrain from further provocation and escalation.

And I know Donald Trump is about to get a rather big dollop of something new on his plate (in about 50 minutes, in fact; stay tuned), but he did give a UN speech today that on the subjects of Iran and the Middle East generally, was spot-on:

Trump . . . sought in his UN speech to rally world opinion against Iran, saying no responsible government should “subsidize Iran’s blood lust.” 
Trump said Iran’s leaders were fanatical about acquiring nuclear weapons and vowed that U.S. sanctions won’t be lifted until Iran’s “menacing behavior” continues. 
And he served notice that it's time to make the realignment of power dynamics in the region more official:

"There is a growing recognition in the wider Middle East that the countries in the region share common interests in battling extremism and unleashing economic opportunity. That is why it is so important to have full, normalized relations between Israel and its neighbors."
It's good that he squeezed that into his busy day, because he has his hands full with other matters as evening approaches.

But to return to the main point, it's heartening to see that there's growing clarity on the world stage about what Iran is really all about



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