Same old narrative, new year

Here's another case of my not knowing how to adequately excerpt from a column without winding up reprinting the whole thing.

So read the whole thing.

Author John Merline's focus is the spin that went with pretty much every piece of reportage yesterday about the dismal report on the first quarter's economic performance.  I'll bet you picked up on that as well.  It was spin along the lines of that poor performance being due to unique mitigating circumstances: the weather and a ports dispute.  The spin continues, asserting that the scenario for the rest of the year looks much rosier.

He then invites us to take a stroll back through the last several Aprils:

April 2010: "The U.S. economy grew at a slightly slower-than-expected pace in the first quarter, held back by inventories and exports, but resurgent consumer spending offered evidence of a sustainable recovery, a government report showed on Friday."

As it turns out, that resurgence never materialized. Overall growth for 2010 come in at just 2.5%.

April 2011 : "Economists surveyed by CNNMoney are expecting the slowdown to be temporary — they still project full-year growth of 3.1% for 2011. 'It's a weak number, but behind the scenes, it's showing some strength,' said John Canally, senior economist with LPL Financial. 'The economy is just not that weak. The data shows this is a one-time thing and we'll get a rebound this quarter.'"

As a matter of fact, the economy was just that weak. GDP growth for 2011 was a mere 1.6%.

April 2012: "Don't panic yet. The government reported Friday that the economy got off to a tepid start this year, but that doesn't foreshadow a repeat of the near-standstill that happened in 2011. 'The economy is firmly on a growth trajectory,' said Sung Won Sohn, an economics professor at California State University's Smith School of Business. 'The first-quarter slowdown will be temporary.'"

That "firm growth trajectory" produced a whopping 1.6% growth in Q2, followed by 2.5% in Q3 and 0.1% in Q4. For the year, GDP eked out a paltry 2.2% gain.

April 2014: "The U.S. economy barely grew in the first quarter as the severe winter hampered exports and led businesses to curtail investment spending, but activity already appears to be bouncing back."

The economy actually shrank 2.1% in the first three months of last year, as subsequent revisions would show. Growth did accelerate over the next two quarters, but then it "unexpectedly" petered out again in the last three months of the year.

The one exception to this "growth-is-just-around-the-corner" mantra was in April 2013, when GDP numbers once again disappointed. Economists were especially downbeat that year about growth prospects. Why? Because they thought budget cuts imposed by the GOP would undermine the recovery.

As it turns out, the last two quarters of 2013 proved economists wrong in other direction. Despite the alleged self-inflicted wounds of "deep cuts," GDP climbed 4.5% and 3.5% in the third and fourth quarters.

Carry water for the architects of planned decline much?