Sunday, September 30, 2018

Sunday roundup

Jeff Flake has a terminal case of Reasonable Gentleman Syndrome:

Smiling from ear to duplicitous ear, Sen. Jeff Flake (fake Republican-Ariz.) took the stage in front of a roaring crowd of #GlobalCitizens at a rock festival on Saturday. Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.), the chap who seems to have talked Flake into betraying his constituents and party leaders, was alongside him in a bipartisan show of support for the big fat wrench in the form of a "one-week" delay in the confirmation process for Judge Kavanaugh. I put "one-week" in quotes because the chances of it ending before the midterms are about as minuscule as Lindsay Lohan making good life choices. It's possible, but it sure doesn't look like it's happening any time soon.
You would think that in this very serious time, where Flake himself worried that America is tearing itself apart over the "intergalactic freakshow" the Senate process has become, he would be more reserved and serious about the decision he made to drag it out even longer and put half of the country he is supposed to be representing on high blood pressure meds. You would think he would have the good sense to be photographed with Mitch McConnell, looking deeply concerned. But no. Instead, we get this: He thinks he's a flippin' rock star!
"You can join me in an elevator anytime!" a beaming Flake shouts to a crowd of screaming twenty-year-olds whose brains haven't fully developed yet and who probably think he's one of the dads on Full House. The audience he's trying to impress is full of the socialist-cheering young people hanging on every word of the likes of Janet Jackson, John Legend, Robert De Niro, and Disney stars I can't name. Every single one of them is a far-left kook.
Sportswriter Erik Brady has dog vomit where decent human beings have souls.  Again, I deliberated for a while about whether to link to this spiritually rotten piece of excrement, but we have to know what we are up against in this existential war.

Allie Stuckey gets the how-dare-you-stray-from-the-party-line-of-the-sisterhood treatment in Texas:

The result? Boos from the audience.
Stuckey lamented:
“I’m devastated to see a man’s life almost in ruins based on uncorroborated and unsubstantiated allegations. I am devastated by the thought of a world in which people are guilty until proven innocent and the burden of proof is on the accused.”
That’s the old way, Allie. As I indicated here, that went out of style with neon windbreakers and critical thought.
To the consternation of congressional Democrats, Allie then went full-bore insane — she championed the concept of evidence:
“I listened to both of their testimonies, and while I think both are believable, I think only Kavanaugh is credible. He’s the only one that has any substantiation for anything that he said, the only one with any corroboration, the only one who has gone through six FBI background checks, the only one that has any evidence for anything that he’s saying and witnesses to back up what he’s saying.”
Then the CRTV host dared speak against sexism:
“He’s the only one that has that, and yet we’re supposed to unconditionally believe the woman? Why? Because of her anatomy?”
That got ’em!
Boos filled the room, like hypocrisy filling a tank fueling a bus of p***y-hatted Bill Clinton supporters, on their way to protest Kavanaugh’s confirmation.
Stuckey…well…stuck…to her guns:

“I think that’s unjust, I think it’s discriminatory, and I don’t believe it.”
Allie posted to Twitter about the ordeal:
“So….I was just booed at #TribFest for supporting Kavanaugh, and, specifically, for saying unconditionally believing all women is unjust. Stand by it tho.” 
Not so fast on the assumption that North Korea is going to be a second Switzerland within three weeks. The US position is that sanctions stay in place until denuclearization is a verifiable done deal. NK says, "Reward us with incremental sanctions for each little thing we do that can be construed as moving toward denuclearization":

North Korea's foreign minister told the United Nations on Saturday continued sanctions were deepening its mistrust in the United States and there was no way the country would give up its nuclear weapons unilaterally under such circumstances.
Ri Yong Ho told the world body's annual General Assembly that North Korea had taken "significant goodwill measures" in the past year, such as stopping nuclear and missiles tests, dismantling the nuclear test site, and pledging not to proliferate nuclear weapons and nuclear technology.
"However, we do not see any corresponding response from the U.S.," he said.
"Without any trust in the U.S. there will be no confidence in our national security and under such circumstances there is no way we will unilaterally disarm ourselves first."
While Ri reprised familiar North Korean complaints about Washington's resistance to a "phased" approach to denuclearization under which North Korea would be rewarded as it took gradual steps, his statement appeared significant in that it did not reject unilateral denuclearization out of hand as Pyongyang has done in the past.
Well, that's nice that they're not rejecting denuclearization out of hand, but lets see some concrete steps.

Elon Musk's social-media oopsie has cost him the chairmanship of the car company he founded. 


 


Friday, September 28, 2018

The Flake factor

These are the two main arguments, aren't they?

1.) The FBI investigation, which delays the full Senate floor vote by a week, dispenses with the optics of a GOP that is oblivious to the profound impact that sexual-assault experiences have on women, and puts the GOP on record as having truly gone not only the extra mile, but the extra-extra mile, to accommodate every possible objection to going ahead with a vote. It may pick up votes that would otherwise have gone the other way.

2.) Flake is a coward who caved in response to the elevator incident. He has made it possible for the Left to cook up who knows what kind of outrageous attempts at irreversible character assassination and reasons for further vote delay.

You know what? Your absolutist blogmeister has not yet called this one. There are valid arguments that bolster each position.

Such is the razor's-edge nature of what the Left - and the tribalist segment of the Right that has not taken the time to ground its ire in a set of principles - has done to the country once known as the United States of America.

Our cultural environment is now characterized by an ethos of, "What happens after we push it further,  as we are going to do?"

What, indeed, does happen?

Now, that's what a real UN ambassador looks like

Is she the coolest or what?

 The US ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley, on Thursday joined Venezuelan protesters outside the world body headquarters and called for the ouster of President Nicolas Maduro.
Haley's embrace of demonstrators was highly unusual for a diplomat from a major power at the staid United Nations and came a day after President Donald Trump hinted at military options against Maduro's leftist government.
"We are going to fight for Venezuela and we are going to continue doing it until Maduro is gone!" Haley shouted from a megaphone.
"We need your voices to be loud and I will tell you, the US voice is going to be loud," she said.
It's called moral vision. It's called standing against tyranny.

I wish she were president.

The Senate must confirm him

You don't need a rehash of the highlights of yesterday's Judiciary Committee proceedings. You know all about how both opening statements were compelling, about the general acknowledgement that something traumatic obviously happened to Ford in her adolescence, about how she was not able to follow up the emotional impact with one shred of evidence, how none of the four people she names as being able to corroborate her story have any idea what party she's talking about, how she has no idea who drove her home from the alleged party, the unraveling of the assertion that she is afraid to fly, the detailed evidence Kavanaugh was able to present, and, of course, Lindsey Graham's fiery barrage of fury, which, history will show, was the redemptive crowning achievement of his career.

You don't need another rehash or hot take because that's about all you're going to see if you peruse any opinion sites today.

The bottom line is to be found in one sentence from Jonathan V. Last's Weekly Standard piece entitled "Six Takeaways from the Ford - Kavanaugh Senate JudiciaryHearing:

It’s impossible to look at the Ford-Kavanaugh hearings and not see America as a nation in decline.
But even that is something we already knew. In spite of good economic news and a foreign policy based on a renewed resolve to thwart enemies and adversaries, post-America is still post-America, a place with a thoroughly rotten culture, a nation that has chosen to give its middle finger to God, and which has now elected two pathological narcissists in a row to the presidency. (The last one at least had a consistent ideology, as harmful as it was; the current one is winging it and occasionally gets things right only because actual conservatives he respects have told him particular moves will make him look like a winner.) And, most pertinent here, post-American society's characteristic brittleness is about to give way to an even uglier phase, in which the polarization is going to take ever more dangerous forms.

I saw some tweets yesterday from various folks situated to the right of center - Megan McArdle comes to mind - who are of the view that the Senate must not confirm Kavanaugh, precisely because of the inevitable reaction by the Left.

This strikes me as profoundly misguided. The accurate view, it seems to me, is that not confirming him would kill, and I don't mean that metaphorically, the Republican Party. The base will split off and form something else, and those less invested in the stakes will retreat to their personal lives and do the sick-of-it-all thing.

Again, let's review the totality of the circumstances. Feinstein had Ford's letter in early July and sat on it until the regular confirmation process was over and it was time for a vote. She helped Ford find a leftist legal team that would work pro bono. Kavanaugh has already cleared six FBI background checks. Not only is no federal crime alleged, which means there is no role for the FBI here, that agency would only be asking the same questions Kavanaugh fielded yesterday. These very recent allegations - from Ford, who is bolstered by the credibility of having experienced something bad as a teen, and two other women whose charges are so flimsy as to be instantly dismissible - are at complete odds with what we know about Kavanaugh's sincere faith, his stellar career in law and jurisprudence, the testimony of his many friends from the various phases of his life, his passion for coaching his daughters' basketball team, his happy marriage and stable family life.

There's a tiny chance that the alleged incident from 1982 occurred exactly as Ford depicts it, but it's highly unlikely.

And, yes, the Left's reaction to a Kavanaugh confirmation is going to ratchet up the peril level in this country considerably. The term "war" is going to become more apt.

But at this point, it looks like the votes are there to confirm him. Doing so will put a principled originalist on the Supreme Court.

To fail at this basic task is going to seal post-America's fate: the howling mobs will grind the faces of all decent, normal, freedom-loving and God-worshipping people in this land under their boots.

Get this done, no later than Tuesday, and if possible, sooner.


UPDATE: Flake's in.

UPDATE: The brownshirts have already descended upon Flake. He stood firm, though.

Thursday, September 27, 2018

Can't improve upon this

I'm not sure I've ever disagreed - at least very sharply - with David French's pieces at NRO (don't have a prosecutor grill me on that under oath), and his immediate post-Ford-testimony take on the present moment strikes me as spot on:

Across both sides of the ideological spectrum you see the same words: “Compelling.” “Credible.” “Heartbreaking.” We’re human. Unless you have a heart of stone, we hate to see a person’s pain, and there is often an instinct towards sympathy and comfort. The book of Proverbs notes an ancient truth: “In a lawsuit, the first to speak seems right, until someone comes forward to cross-examine.”
In this case, because the format consistently interrupts the cross-examination before it can gain any momentum, Dr. Ford’s first statement retains its emotional power. There is no real test of her claims. To be clear, I’m not blaming Rachel Mitchell, the attorney the GOP hired to question Dr. Ford. Not even Clarence Darrow could effectively examine a witness if he was interrupted every five minutes by emotional tributes to the witness’s strength, courage, and virtue.
Moreover, we also often have this mystical faith in our own ability to discern the truth by examining tone, demeanor, and likeability. She was “real.” He’s been “wooden.” These things impact us far more than we’d like to admit. Yet if there is one thing we know from our modern re-examinations of the impact of witness testimony on case outcomes, our faith in ourselves is deeply misplaced. We’re not very good at determining who’s correct and who’s mistaken by watching people talk. That’s one reason why innocent people go to prison, including for rape.
So, given the human dynamics of watching a person in obvious pain, the lack of real cross-examination, and our misplaced faith in ourselves to discern truth, it’s entirely possible that Dr. Ford’s testimony changed everything. That she moved the needle decisively in her favor.
But it’s also very important to note that Dr. Ford’s testimony has changed nothing about the underlying evidence in the case. She has made her claim, there are no corroborating witnesses. No one else can place the two of them together at the party — not even the witnesses she’s identified. She is inconsistent or forgetful on a number of key points. She can’t even identify who brought her to the party or who took her home. He’s denied the claims and will deny them again.

That’s thin — very thin — evidence of sexual assault. The evidence is no stronger this afternoon than it was before Dr. Ford testified. When this controversy began, I said that her claims were serious enough that, if true, Kavanaugh should not be confirmed. Further, I said that that she should only have to carry the lowest burden of proof — to establish that her claims were more likely than not. If you step back, look at the totality of the evidence and consider that she has brought no new evidence to the committee, I still don’t believe she has met that minimal burden.
There's no way that feels were not going to take precedence in what has gone down today.

There's too much solidarity-with-the-sisterhood in the air for the plain fact that Kavanaugh's career trajectory, the number of people eager to speak in his defense via letters, his family life and the general way he's carried himself are utterly incongruous with any of these claims to get a proper consideration.

Praying that his time before the committee and Ms. Mitchell go well.
 

Thursday morning in post-America

Well, okay, having my first cup of coffee, gearing up for a productive day (meeting to cover at 9, work on my online university course, solo jazz gig at 6). The backdrop, of course, is a post-American landscape that makes one embarrassed to be a human being. Surely there's some other species that's more qualified at this point to step up and take over the role we were designed for but have utterly abnegated.

Julie Swetnick was served with a restraining order by a former boyfriend who says she threatened his wife and kid.

And I don't know who these people are or what cause they think they are furthering, but somebody's leaving death threats for the staff of the restaurant that Ted Cruz and his party got chased out of.

Regarding that incident, Don Lemon of CNN says that this is what Cruz signed up for when he became a public official. Yeah, sure, getting chased out of restaurants by screaming mobs goes with the territory.

And then there was the Jimmy Kimmel monologue the other night, in which he said putting Kavanaugh on the Supreme Court if the nation got to cut off his "pesky penis" sounded like a fair trade.

The social climate in post-America has gotten exponentially darker in the last month, and it was already very dark.

It will get darker still.




Tuesday, September 25, 2018

Implicit bias: a fancy term for "you will get your mind right"

Okay, I got my objective-journalist job done.

As I've said here before, I recently picked up a new gig as a freelance news guy for a local media company that owns an array of radio stations. I cover the local-government beat.

Last night I attended the monthly local school-board meeting. The customary way the meetings are structured to begin is for one of the board members to offer a reflection on some aspect of the education enterprise. In this case, one guy talked about how a colleague had turned him on to an article in an education trade magazine on implicit bias and how it had spurred him to think about that more deeply. He encouraged all those present - fellow board members, school-corporation staff, and the general public in the audience - to examine how implicit bias shows up in their own lives.

Later in the proceedings - after a first reading of the 2019 budget, approval of claims and payroll and some other matters - another board member said he'd like to take up where the reflection guy had left off. He'd recently attended a workshop on implicit bias put on by the school corporation's diversity officer (I don't think I knew it had one, but I'm not at all surprised) and found the exercises she put attendees through to be eye-opening. He reiterated the first guy's desire to encourage everyone to look more deeply into it.

Of course, any normal person who sets store by his or her individual agency - that is, ownership of the inside of his or her noggin - is going to bristle at the very notion of such a concept, but let's not react from gut alone.

Let's go to a September 2017 City Journal article by Heather MacDonald for some history and insight:


The implicit-bias idea burst onto the academic scene in 1998 with the rollout of a psychological instrument called the implicit association test (IAT). Created by social psychologists Anthony Greenwald and Mahzarin Banaji, with funding from the National Science Foundation and National Institute of Mental Health, the IAT was announced as a breakthrough in prejudice studies: “The pervasiveness of prejudice, affecting 90 to 95 percent of people, was demonstrated today . . . by psychologists who developed a new tool that measures the unconscious roots of prejudice,” read the press release.
The race IAT (there are non-race varieties) displays a series of black faces and white faces on a computer; the test subject must sort them quickly by race into two categories, represented by the “i” and “e” keys on the keyboard. Next, the subject sorts “good” or “positive” words like “pleasant,” and “bad” or “negative” words like “death,” into good and bad categories, represented by those same two computer keys. The sorting tasks are then intermingled: faces and words appear at random on the screen, and the test-taker has to sort them with the “i” and “e” keys. Next, the sorting protocol is reversed. If, before, a black face was to be sorted using the same key as the key for a “bad” word, now a black face is sorted with the same key as a “good” word and a white face sorted with the reverse key. If a subject takes longer sorting black faces using the computer key associated with a “good” word than he does sorting white faces using the computer key associated with a “good” word, the IAT deems the subject a bearer of implicit bias. The IAT ranks the subject’s degree of implicit bias based on the differences in milliseconds with which he accomplishes the different sorting tasks; at the end of the test, he finds out whether he has a strong, moderate, or weak “preference” for blacks or for whites. A majority of test-takers (including many blacks) are rated as showing a preference for white faces. Additional IATs sort pictures of women, the elderly, the disabled, and other purportedly disfavored groups.
Greenwald and Banaji did not pioneer such response-time studies; psychologists already used response-time methodology to measure how closely concepts are associated in memory. And the idea that automatic cognitive processes and associations help us navigate daily life is also widely accepted in psychology. But Greenwald and Banaji, now at the University of Washington and Harvard University, respectively, pushed the response-time technique and the implicit-cognition idea into charged political territory. Not only did they confidently assert that any differences in sorting times for black and white faces flow from unconscious prejudice against blacks; they also claimed that such unconscious prejudice, as measured by the IAT, predicts discriminatory behavior. It is “clearly . . . established that automatic race preference predicts discrimination,” they wrote in their 2013 bestseller Blind Spot, which popularized the IAT. And in the final link of their causal chain, they hypothesized that this unconscious predilection to discriminate is a cause of racial disparities: “It is reasonable to conclude not only that implicit bias is a cause of Black disadvantage but also that it plausibly plays a greater role than does explicit bias in explaining the discrimination that contributes to Black disadvantage.”
The implicit-bias conceit spread like wildfire. President Barack Obama denounced “unconscious” biases against minorities and females in science in 2016. NBC anchor Lester Holt asked Hillary Clinton during a September 2016 presidential debate whether “police are implicitly biased against black people.” Clinton answered: “Lester, I think implicit bias is a problem for everyone, not just police.” Then–FBI director James Comey claimed in a 2015 speech that “much research” points to the “widespread existence of unconscious bias.” “Many people in our white-majority culture,” Comey said, “react differently to a white face than a black face.” The Obama Justice Department packed off all federal law-enforcement agents to implicit-bias training. Clinton promised to help fund it for local police departments, many of which had already begun the training following the 2014 fatal police shooting of Michael Brown in Ferguson, Missouri.
A parade of journalists confessed their IAT-revealed preferences, including Malcolm Gladwell in his acclaimed book Blink. Corporate diversity trainers retooled themselves as purveyors of the new “science of bias.” And the legal academy started building the case that the concept of intentionality in the law was scientifically obtuse. Leading the charge was Jerry Kang, a UCLA law professor in the school’s critical race studies program who became UCLA’s fantastically paid vice chancellor for Equity, Diversity and Inclusion in 2015 (starting salary: $354,900, now up to $444,000). “The law has an obligation to respond to changes in scientific knowledge,” Kang said in a 2015 lecture. “Federal anti-discrimination law has been fixated on, and obsessed with, conscious intent.” But the new “behavioral realism,” as the movement to incorporate IAT-inspired concepts into the law calls itself, shows that we “discriminate without the intent and awareness to discriminate.” If we look only for conscious intent, we will “necessarily be blind to a whole bunch of real harm that is painful and consequential,” he concluded. Kang has pitched behavioral realism to law firms, corporations, judges, and government agencies.
She cites fields such as business and law enforcement, where this fad has taken hold.

But how does it hold up as science?

There is hardly an aspect of IAT doctrine that is not now under methodological challenge.
Any social-psychological instrument must pass two tests to be considered accurate: reliability and validity. A psychological instrument is reliable if the same test subject, taking the test at different times, achieves roughly the same score each time. But IAT bias scores have a lower rate of consistency than is deemed acceptable for use in the real world—a subject could be rated with a high degree of implicit bias on one taking of the IAT and a low or moderate degree the next time around. A recent estimate puts the reliability of the race IAT at half of what is considered usable. No evidence exists, in other words, that the IAT reliably measures anything stable in the test-taker.
But the fiercest disputes concern the IAT’s validity. A psychological instrument is deemed “valid” if it actually measures what it claims to be measuring—in this case, implicit bias and, by extension, discriminatory behavior. If the IAT were valid, a high implicit-bias score would predict discriminatory behavior, as Greenwald and Banaji asserted from the start. It turns out, however, that IAT scores have almost no connection to what ludicrously counts as “discriminatory behavior” in IAT research—trivial nuances of body language during a mock interview in a college psychology laboratory, say, or a hypothetical choice to donate to children in Colombian, rather than South African, slums. Oceans of ink have been spilled debating the statistical strength of the correlation between IAT scores and lab-induced “discriminatory behavior” on the part of college students paid to take the test. The actual content of those “discriminatory behaviors” gets mentioned only in passing, if at all, and no one notes how remote those behaviors are from the discrimination that we should be worried about.
Even if we accept at face value that the placement of one’s chair in a mock lab interview or decisions in a prisoner’s-dilemma game are significant “discriminatory behaviors,” the statistical connection between IAT scores and those actions is negligible. A 2009 meta-analysis of 122 IAT studies by Greenwald, Banaji, and two management professors found that IAT scores accounted for only 5.5 percent of the variation in laboratory-induced “discrimination.” Even that low score was arrived at by questionable methods, as Jesse Singal discussed in a masterful review of the IAT literature in New York. A team of IAT skeptics—Fred Oswald of Rice University, Gregory Mitchell of the University of Virginia law school, Hart Blanton of the University of Connecticut, James Jaccard of New York University, and Philip Tetlock—noticed that Greenwald and his coauthors had counted opposite behaviors as validating the IAT. If test subjects scored high on implicit bias via the IAT but demonstrated better behavior toward out-group members (such as blacks) than toward in-group members, that was a validation of the IAT on the theory that the subjects were overcompensating for their implicit bias. But studies that found a correlation between a high implicit-bias score and discriminatory behavior toward out-group members also validated the IAT. In other words: heads, I win; tails, I win.
Greenwald and Banaji now admit that the IAT does not predict biased behavior. The psychometric problems associated with the race IAT “render [it] problematic to use to classify persons as likely to engage in discrimination,” they wrote in 2015, just two years after their sweeping claims in Blind Spot. The IAT should not be used, for example, to select a bias-free jury, maintains Greenwald. “We do not regard the IAT as diagnosing something that inevitably results in racist or prejudicial behavior,” he told The Chronicle of Higher Education in January. Their fallback position: though the IAT does not predict individual biased behavior, it predicts discrimination and disadvantage in the aggregate. “Statistically small effects” can have “societally large effects,” they have argued. If a society has higher levels of implicit bias against blacks as measured on the IAT, it will allegedly have higher levels of discriminatory behavior. Hart Blanton, one of the skeptics, dismisses this argument. If you don’t know what an instrument means on an individual level, you don’t know what it means in the aggregate, he told New York’s Singal. In fairness to Greenwald and Banaji, it is true that a cholesterol score, say, is more accurate at predicting heart attacks the larger the sample of subjects. But too much debate exists about what the IAT actually measures for much confidence about large-scale effects.
Initially, most of the psychology profession accepted the startling claim that one’s predilection to discriminate in real life is revealed by the microsecond speed with which one sorts images. But possible alternative meanings of a “pro-white” IAT score are now beginning to emerge. Older test-takers may have cognitive difficulty with the shifting instructions of the IAT. Objective correlations between group membership and socioeconomic outcomes may lead to differences in sorting times, as could greater familiarity with one ethnic-racial group compared with another. These alternative meanings should have been ruled out before the world learned that a new “scientific” test had revealed the ubiquity of prejudice.
The most recent meta-analysis deals another blow to the conventional IAT narrative. This study, not yet formally published, looked at whether changes in implicit bias allegedly measured by the IAT led to changes in “discriminatory behavior”—defined as the usual artificial lab conduct. While small changes in IAT scores can be induced in a lab setting through various psychological priming techniques, they do not produce changes in behavior, the study found. The analyses’ seven authors propose a radical possibility that would halt the implicit-bias crusade in its tracks: “perhaps automatically retrieved associations really are causally inert”—that is, they have no relationship to how we act in the real world. Instead of “acting as a ‘cognitive monster’ that inevitably leads to bias-consistent thought and behavior,” the researchers propose, “automatically retrieved associations could reflect the residual ‘scar’ of concepts that are frequently paired together within the social environment.” If this is true, they write, there would need to be a “reevaluation of some of the central assumptions that drive implicit bias research.” That is an understatement.
Among the study’s authors are Brian Nosek of the University of Virginia and Calvin Lai of Washington University in St. Louis. Both have collaborated with Greenwald and Banaji in furthering the dominant IAT narrative; Nosek was Banaji’s student and helped put the IAT on the web. It is a testament to their scientific integrity that they have gone where the data have led them. (Greenwald warned me in advance about their meta-analysis: “There has been a recent rash of popular press critique based on a privately circulated ‘research report’ that has not been accepted by any journal, and has been heavily criticized by editor and reviewers of the one journal to which I know it was submitted,” he wrote in an e-mail. But the Nosek, Lai, et al. study was not “privately circulated”; it is available on the web, as part of the open-science initiative that Nosek helped found.)
T
he fractious debate around the IAT has been carried out exclusively at the micro-level, with hundreds of articles burrowing deep into complicated statistical models to assess minute differences in experimental reaction times. Meanwhile, outside the purview of these debates, two salient features of the world go unnoticed by the participants: the pervasiveness of racial preferences and the behavior that lies behind socioeconomic disparities.

And organizations that hire people had been puking all over themselves to achieve the "correct" demographic mix long before implicit bias became a thing:

One would have difficulty finding an elite institution today that does not pressure its managers to hire and promote as many blacks and Hispanics as possible. Nearly 90 percent of Fortune 500 companies have some sort of diversity infrastructure, according to Howard Ross. The federal Equal Employment Opportunity Commission requires every business with 100 or more employees to report the racial composition of its workforce. Employers know that empty boxes for blacks and other “underrepresented minorities” can trigger governmental review. Some companies tie manager compensation to the achievement of “diversity,” as Roger Clegg documented before the U.S. Civil Rights Commission in 2006. “If people miss their diversity and inclusion goals, it hurts their bonuses,” the CEO of Abbott Laboratories said in a 2002 interview. Since then, the diversity pressure has only intensified. Google’s “objectives and key results” for managers include increased diversity. Walmart and other big corporations require law firms to put minority attorneys on the legal teams that represent them. “We are terminating a firm right now strictly because of their inability to grasp our diversity expectations,” Walmart’s general counsel announced in 2005. Any reporter seeking a surefire story idea can propose tallying up the minorities in a particular firm or profession; Silicon Valley has become the favorite subject of bean-counting “exposés,” though Hollywood and the entertainment industry are also targets of choice. Organizations will do everything possible to avoid such negative publicity.
In colleges, the mandate to hire more minority (and female) candidates hangs over almost all faculty recruiting. (Asians don’t count as a “minority” or a “person of color” for academic diversity purposes, since they are academically competitive.) Deans have canceled faculty-search results and ordered the hiring committee to go back to the drawing board if the finalists are not sufficiently “diverse.” (See “Multiculti U,” Spring 2013.) Every selective college today admits black and Hispanic students with much weaker academic qualifications than white and Asian students, as any high school senior knows. At the University of Michigan, for example, an Asian with the same GPA and SAT scores as the median black admit had zero chance in 2005 of admission; a white with those same scores had a 1 percent chance of admission. At Arizona State University, a white with the same academic credentials as the average black admit had a 2 percent chance of admission in 2006; that average black had a 96 percent chance of admission. The preferences continue into graduate and professional schools. UCLA and UC Berkeley law schools admit blacks at a 400 percent higher rate than can be explained on race-neutral grounds, though California law in theory bans them from using racial preferences. From 2013 to 2016, medical schools nationally admitted 57 percent of black applicants with low MCATs of 24 to 26 but only 8 percent of whites and 6 percent of Asians with those same low scores, as Frederick Lynch reported in the New York Times. The reason for these racial preferences is administrators’ burning desire to engineer a campus with a “critical mass” of black and Hispanic faces.
Similar pressures exist in the government and nonprofit sectors. In the New York Police Department, blacks and Hispanics are promoted ahead of whites for every position to which promotion is discretionary, as opposed to being determined by an objective exam. In the 1990s, blacks and Hispanics became detectives almost five years earlier than whites and took half the time as whites did to be appointed to deputy inspector or deputy chief.
And yet, we are to believe that alleged millisecond associations between blacks and negative terms are a more powerful determinant of who gets admitted, hired, and promoted than these often explicit and heavy-handed preferences. 
I love the way she nails a diversity jackboot to the wall in this phone exchange:


PricewaterhouseCoopers has spearheaded an economy-wide diversity initiative, dubbed the CEO Action for Diversity & Inclusion™. Nearly 200 CEOs have signed a pledge to send their employees to implicit-bias training; in the case of PricewaterhouseCoopers, that means packing off 50,000 employees to the trainers. Any organization spending a large sum of money on a problem would presumably have a firm evidentiary basis that the problem exists. Megan DiSciullo is a spokesman for the CEO Action for Diversity & Inclusion and a member of PricewaterhouseCoopers’s human resources department. I asked her if she was aware of candidates who should have been hired at PwC but weren’t because of implicit bias. Our telephone exchange went as follows:
DiSciullo: I’m not aware of someone not getting a job because of bias.
Me: But are your managers making suboptimal decisions because of bias?
DiSciullo: The coalition as a group recognizes that everyone has unconscious bias; we are committed to training our managers to be better.
Me: Your managers are not making optimal decisions because of bias?
DiSciullo: Everyone has unconscious bias. I’m not saying that anyone is not being hired or promoted, but it’s part of the workplace.
Me: In what way? People are being treated differently?
DiSciullo: People have bias, but it manifests itself differently. I think you have an agenda which I am trying to unpack. The facts are clear that people have biases and that they could bring them to the workplace. Corporations recognize that fact and want to build the most inclusive workplace.
Me: You base the statement that everyone has biases on what?
DiSciullo: On science and on the Harvard Business Review.

Her deep dive goes on for a while, looking into performance results in a variety of fields.

Her concluding paragraph ties it all together:

A thought experiment is in order: if American blacks acted en masse like Asian-Americans for ten years in all things relevant to economic success—if they had similar rates of school attendance, paying attention in class, doing homework and studying for exams, staying away from crime, persisting in a job, and avoiding out-of-wedlock childbearing—and we still saw racial differences in income, professional status, and incarceration rates, then it would be well justified to seek an explanation in unconscious prejudice. But as long as the behavioral disparities remain so great, the minute distinctions of the IAT are a sideshow. America has an appalling history of racism and brutal subjugation, and we should always be vigilant against any recurrence of that history. But the most influential sectors of our economy today practice preferences in favor of blacks. The main obstacles to racial equality at present lie not in implicit bias but in culture and behavior.
But here in a small city in the heart of flyover country, tax dollars are going to this stuff.

You know what's next: explicit talk about privilege.


Absolute savages - today's edition

Here's the state of societal rot in 2018 post-America:

Republican Texas Senator Ted Cruz was chased out of a DC restaurant by protesters on Monday night, according to video posted on Twitter.
Two videos were posted by “Smash Racism DC” and they show a large group of protesters chanting “We believe survivors” in reference to sexual assault allegations against Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh at Sen. Cruz and his wife, Heidi Cruz.
One video shows a protester confronting Sen. Cruz and his wife as they entered the restaurant. Sen. Cruz tells the woman “God bless you” before attempting to take a seat at a table.
After the protesters surround the table, Sen. Cruz tells Mrs. Cruz, “Let’s go ahead and go” and puts on his jacket to leave.
“Vote no on Kavanaugh!” one protester screams. “Cancel Kavanaugh for women’s rights.”
Toward the end of a video, a restaurant employee can be heard asking the protesters to leave because the area is a “private space.”
A spokesperson for Sen. Cruz did not immediately return a request for comment. 
They haven't gone as far as they can and are going to.

Time for us to look unflinchingly at what we're up against and deal with it accordingly.

Monday, September 24, 2018

Here's the nuttiest level of all concerning the jackboots' agenda: They want to impose insanity on us all

A philosophy journal editor gets fired for making the simple assertion that women don't have penises.

You read that right:

Not even atheist humanists are safe from the long, punishing arms of the transgender mafia. Recently, Angelos Sofocleous was fired from his job at Durham University's philosophy journal Critique for retweeting a tweet that fellow students called "transphobic." The tweet in question included a link to an article from the Spectator called "Is it a crime to say 'women don't have penises'?" The article is about women's activists who had police called on them for placing stickers saying as much around their city in protest of men usurping women's rights.
In a typical 2018 overreaction, Sofocleous's retweet of that article caused great gnashing of teeth and loud weeping in the outrage corners of the internet. As a result, Sofocleous was dismissed from his position at the Durham publication and forced to resign as president-elect of the Humanist Students group. "Humanists," Sofocleous told PJM, "strive to have a rational and logical approach in life, and face issues with evidence and claims, not with belief and faith. As such, humanists have trust in the scientific method, which they believe to be the only source of truth in the world."
Strangely, the extremely scientific fact that women do not have — and have never had — penises didn't seem to sway the humanist students toward rational thought. They kicked Sofocleous right out of their sphere. Criticisms of Sofocleous were swift and mostly unintelligible. Responding to Sofocleous's true statement that engaging in debate does not mean your opponent has equal moral status, a writer at the ironically named "Freethoughtblogs" wrote:
This is where the fetishizing of free speech and debate goes bad. I get to deny your basic humanity and your right to exist, and  you now need to convince me otherwise. I get to freely make assertions that don’t challenge my privileged status but do potentially do great harm to you, and I have no responsibility or obligation to others — others who may even consider those statements “wrong beyond doubt” — to make defensible statements, and the onus is entirely on you to address them, and if you don’t, you are an intolerant tribalist. Why do you get so angry when I merely want to deny your civil rights, or enslave you, or kill you? That’s not very logical.
"The author of this piece is making incredibly illogical and irrational statements, as well as a number of logical fallacies," Sofocleous said. "This reveals the problem in regards to people who try to silence others because they are ‘offended’ or because they have received ‘politically incorrect’ criticism."
Sofocleous explained that "an attack to some ideology (e.g. trans ideology) or some concept (e.g. gender) does not constitute an attack to individuals who hold that ideology or to people who claim to belong to the opposite sex or gender because of how they feel, appear, or behave." 
I like this guy. He's clearly done a lot of thinking about what is and what by definition cannot be a right. As you know, that's a frequent subject of examination here at LITD.

Sofocleous says, "It is important to note that gender is not a human right, and thus cannot be ‘taken away’ from someone. This is not because gender is ‘coercively assigned’ but simply because it does not fall within the scope of human rights."
He also understands the truth that informs this blog's very name: We probably won't make it:

"The West is heading towards a dangerous future," said Sofocleous. "The post-truth society where feelings matter more than facts is essentially going to harm individuals and civilization as society will shift it away from reason, rational thinking, and science, and towards belief and feelings which will keep dictating government policy."
He may be a secular humanist, but to a considerable degree, he has his head on straight.
 

 

Donald Trump, economic illiterate with no core set of principles

How much longer is he going to be able to brag about an economic turnaround with this kind of development nipping at his heels?

Optimism at the top levels of American businesses dipped in the three months through September, with fewer executives planning to hire workers and build new plants as President Trump's trade war bites into profits. 
About 56 percent of the corporate leaders in a Business Roundtable survey expected to expand payrolls, down 2 points from the spring quarter, while the 55 percent forecasting new capital spending fell six points. The overall CEO Economic Outlook Index dipped 1.8 points to 109.3, still well above its historical average of 81.6, according to the organization, which represents 200 of the largest U.S. companies. 
The index uses a scale of -50 to 150, with any reading above 50 indicating economic expansion, and gauges sentiment at businesses that, together, employ nearly 15 million people and account for more than 27 percent of U.S. stock market value.
"Contrary to the assertion that new tariffs and trade restrictions are making our economy stronger, almost none of our companies see it as a positive," Business Roundtable President Josh Bolten, the former chief of staff to President George W. Bush, said on a call with reporters. "These negative effects have important implications, not only for our member companies but their suppliers, many of which are small and medium-sized businesses."
The survey's findings mirror the assessments of C-suite executives during summer earnings calls, many of whom predicted increasing fallout from Trump's imposition of double-digit duties on metals, levies on $250 billion of Chinese imports and threats to impose levies on auto imports.
And Cummins, a Fortune 200 company in the power-generation business, says tariffs on Chinese goods is going to cost it $100 million this year.

Farmers in Tennessee and Illinois are feeling the harmful effects of tariffs.

The Coalition of American Metal Manufacturers and Users has it right: tariffs are taxes.

As I've asked before, how do things go when Kudlow and Moore are in the same room with Peter Navarro and Wilbur Ross, vying for the ear of the Very Stable Genius? It appears the VSG instinctively goes with the latter, given his taste for confrontation.


 
 

The Kavanaugh situation - today's thoughts

1.) Ronan Farrow, who had established himself as a good investigative journalist, has badly discredited himself with the New Yorker piece, which NBC, the New York Times and the Washington Post took a pass on.

2.) Ramirez huddling with her leftist lawyer for several days to "assess her memories" is about as lame as it gets.

3.) This, several paragraphs in:

One of the male classmates who Ramirez said egged on Kavanaugh denied any memory of the party. “I don’t think Brett would flash himself to Debbie, or anyone, for that matter,” he said. Asked why he thought Ramirez was making the allegation, he responded, “I have no idea.” The other male classmate who Ramirez said was involved in the incident commented, “I have zero recollection.”
In a statement, two of those male classmates who Ramirez alleged were involved in the incident, the wife of a third male student she said was involved, and three other classmates, Dino Ewing, Louisa Garry, and Dan Murphy, disputed Ramirez’s account of events: “We were the people closest to Brett Kavanaugh during his first year at Yale. He was a roommate to some of us, and we spent a great deal of time with him, including in the dorm where this incident allegedly took place. Some of us were also friends with Debbie Ramirez during and after her time at Yale. We can say with confidence that if the incident Debbie alleges ever occurred, we would have seen or heard about it—and we did not. The behavior she describes would be completely out of character for Brett. In addition, some of us knew Debbie long after Yale, and she never described this incident until Brett’s Supreme Court nomination was pending. Editors from the New Yorker contacted some of us because we are the people who would know the truth, and we told them that we never saw or heard about this.”
4.) Ford says she's afraid to fly. Did she stay put in Hawaii the whole time she was attending the state university there?

5.) She wanted to stall in order for creatures like Ramirez and Avenatti to enter the fray.

6.) Grassley's effort to accommodate Ford was impressive last week. Give her enough rope. But giving her until Thursday of this week was a conciliatory gesture too far.

7.) Michael Avenatti's charge of high-school-rape-gangs is not only ludicrous but should result in his disbarring.

8.) Democrats are savages. They have dog vomit where normal people have souls. They think it's a hoot that they are scarring Kavanaugh's children for life, destroying our social fabric, our Constitutional order, and anything recognizable as the United States of America.

9.) This is all about protecting the "right" to rip people's limbs from their torsos and vacuum the brains out of their skulls. That right must be protected because leftist women resent being of the gender with bodies in which people gestate. They see God's sacred design for them as an inconvenience that gives them a more limited set of options than men have.

10.) Senate Republicans have to confirm Kavanaugh. If they don't, they will face a bloodbath in November. They'll be living up to the image of fecklessness Pubs have had for decades. They'll be showing that they really don't understand that this is war of the most ruthless and brutal sort. LITD has always found and still finds Donald Trump objectionable (see next post - the one on tariffs), but listen up, you dweeby little twits, this is how we got him.



Sunday, September 23, 2018

The current state of the Ted - Beto race

Two noteworthy pieces this morning.

Salena Zito's latest column is entitled "The Rise of Beto O'Rourke Is Mostly a Media Fantasy," and she invites us to look at the big picture:

. . . when it comes to the final stages of this fight, O’Rourke can’t duck the issues, Cruz says.
“Usually in Texas in a general election, Democrats at least pretend to go to the middle. Congressman O’Rourke is not doing that,” Cruz says. “He voted against the tax cut and he wants to raise taxes on Texans. He supports the Obama regulations that hammered the state of Texas in the oil and gas industries as well as farmers and ranchers. He wants to expand ObamaCare to full-on socialized medicine, putting the federal government in charge of health care and your doctors. He not only opposes a wall, but he supports sanctuary cities, and he has said he is open to abolishing ICE and the entire Department of Homeland Security. On gun control, he’s tweeted out how proud he is that he has an F rating from the NRA.

“And in 2014, he was one of only eight members of the House to vote against funding Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense system while Hamas was raining rockets on Israel — something virtually every Republican and Democrat voted for.”
Despite Democrats pushing the idea that Texans are moving blue, the Dems in this state tend to be more conservative than Beto and they want to know how a candidate stands on issues. Currently, RealClearPolitics puts Cruz over Beto by 4.5 percentage points in a match that is ranked “a toss-up,” but a new Quinnipiac poll shows Cruz surging by 9 percentage points. And for all the talk of a blue Texas, Republican Pete Flores last week won a state senate race in a Lone Star district Hillary Clinton took by 12 points, flipping the seat red for the first time in 139 years. 
The other piece is from Beckett Adams at The Washington Examiner. It makes plain what tribalist shills post-America's mainstream outlets have turned into:

It’s a shame that we have only a few more weeks to enjoy the national press’ fawning coverage of Democratic Senate candidate Beto O’Rourke. I’m not sure I want to live in a world where newsrooms aren’t publishing 2,000- to 4,000-plus-word articles every other week explaining how the “ Kennedyesque” Texas candidate's “ energy” has Democrats hoping he’s the “ next Obama.” 
The Beto puff piece is the hot new thing in this industry, and I don’t ever want it to end. So, to keep this trend going, I’ve cobbled together a guide so anyone can write their own Beto profile ( also, check out the one the Washington Free Beacon published last month). Let's flood the market. You don’t have to be employed by the New York Times or Esquire magazine to do it. All you need is the candidate’s name and a few choice themes. Just remember these Dos and Don'ts: 
Dos:

Talk about his energy! 
  • New York Times: “He has a restless energy”
  • BuzzFeed: “O’Rourke’s energy is palpable, infectious”
  • Politico: "The early morning runs help O’Rourke ... project youth and energy"
  • Texas Monthly: "O’Rourke felt a kind of restless energy"
Talk about driving! 
  • BuzzFeed: “O’Rourke prides himself on how much of the driving he’s done during this trip across the state”
  • Town and Country: “He jumped back into the white Dodge Grand Caravan, driving it himself”
  • Time magazine: “On a dusty road in southwestern Texas, Beto O’Rourke leans out the window of the Ford Expedition he’s driving and mutters, ‘You gonna let me pass you, state police?'"
  • New York Times: He has driven “tens of thousands of miles, fueled by bad coffee and Hostess cupcakes that supporters bring him ... Driving with his left forearm and right elbow on the steering wheel”
  • Politico: "He asked an aide to lay down a towel on the driver’s seat of his Dodge Caravan, the model he rents whenever he is campaigning."
Mention he speaks Spanish! 
  • New York Times: “[H]e is speaking Spanish — which he does, fluently.”
  • Time: “O’Rourke ... spends several hours a week practicing his Spanish.”
  • BuzzFeed: “O’Rourke speaks fluent Spanish, and regularly dots his speeches with Spanish phrases”
  • Politico: “A fluent Spanish speaker”
  • Texas Monthly: He speaks fluent Spanish
Talk about his sweat! 
  • Town and Country: "As he stood on one porch, a prospective voter seemed to notice the sweat accumulating on his face and throughout his shirt, so she offered him a popsicle.”
  • Politico: "Sweat pours off his lean, 6-foot-4-inch frame"
  • BuzzFeed: "Beto O’Rourke is a prolific, prodigious sweater. We’re talking shirt-soaking, chin-dripping sweat, most visible as he takes questions from the audiences that have gathered to see him across Texas."
My goodness is he charismatic! 
  • Time: “The Congressman is lanky, handsome and charismatic”
  • Texas Monthly: "[I]t’s O’Rourke’s charisma that sells his pitch"
  • Politico: "He is his own strategist, and his strategy is simple: campaign relentlessly, project vitality and hope his raw charisma combines in just the right proportion with anti-Cruz animus"
Everyone loves an underdog! 
  • New York Times: "[T]he long-shot is going it alone."
  • Town and Country: "He's a Kennedyesque longshot"
  • Politico: "This, in short, is how O’Rourke plans to pull off his long-shot bid to take away Cruz’s Senate seat: by outhustling his opponent."
  • Texas Monthly: "The El Paso congressman is waging a long-shot campaign to prove a Democrat can win in Texas."
  • BuzzFeed: "In that way, he’s not unlike another young, first-time, long-shot Senate candidate who grabbed the national imagination a decade ago."
Don'ts
Do not under any circumstance mention his 1998 high-speed drunken car accident, including the part where witnesses said he crashed his car into oncoming traffic and endangered others' lives — as he now admits. Especially do not mention that the police report includes testimony from witnesses who claim he attempted to flee the scene of the crime. And don't mention that he managed to get off Scot free, probably because by some miracle no one was killed and even more likely because of his family's political connections.

LITD's two cents to throw into this: I'd count on Texans being turned off on the policy and ideology level. And, per the litany that Ted offers above, I'd count on him to hammer that home in the final stretch. You really want a guy who's for socialized medicine, sanctuary cities and giving the finger to Israel?

Of course, there's a minuscule possibility that LITD will be saying come the first Wednesday in November, "Well, we missed that one by a Texas-size mile, didn't we?"

But Texas is one of the sanest spots remaining in post-America. At this point, Beto seems like this year's Wendy Davis.

A key witness doesn't remember any party

When Ford finally testifies to the Senate Judiciary Committee (Chairman Grassley will go down in the history books as having gone way beyond what was necessary or even prudent to accommodate her) on Thursday (giving the Left nearly another week to ratchet up the media and social-media -circus), she will have her work cut out for her.

This party - whenever and wherever it happened - or didn't - escapes yet another key person's recollection:

Christine Blasey Ford has claimed that four other people attended a small gathering at which she was allegedly assaulted by Brett Kavanaugh. Three of those people, PJ Smyth, Mark Judge, and Kavanaugh, have already denied any recollection of attending such a party. 
On Saturday night, Leland Ingham Keyser, a classmate of Ford's at the all-girls school Holton-Arms and her final named witness, denied any recollection of attending a party with Brett Kavanaugh. 
"Simply put, Ms. Keyser does not know Mr. Kavanaugh and she has no recollection of ever being at a party or gathering where he was present, with, or without, Dr. Ford," lawyer Howard J. Walsh said in a statement sent to the Senate Judiciary Committee. 
What kinds of details - dates, locations, sworn testimony about who was there - can she give that's not going to run smack counter to what everybody else is saying?