Lots of studies had concluded the whole thing would go kabust by 2033, but some new studies yield a more dire scenario:
Why the new take on its shakiness?The Social Security Administration projects that its trust funds will be depleted by 2033—not an optimistic forecast. But it may be even bleaker than that.New studies from Harvard and Dartmouth researchers find that the SSA's actuarial forecasts have been consistently overstating the financial health of the program's trust funds since 2000."These biases are getting bigger and they are substantial," said Gary King, co-author of the studies and director of Harvard's Institute for Quantitative Social Science. "[Social Security] is going to be insolvent before everyone thinks."
Annual trustees' reports up to the year 2000 had been fairly objective, but then something changed:
"After 2000, forecast errors became increasingly biased, and in the same direction. Trustees Reports after 2000 all overestimated the assets in the program and overestimated solvency of the Trust Funds," wrote the researchers, who include Dartmouth professor Samir Soneji and Harvard doctoral candidate Konstantin Kashin.So stamping your feet and demanding that Uncle Sam pony up for what 's rightfully yours looks increasingly like an exercise in futility.
Would a private-sector investment-fund manager keen to keep your business be so loosey-goosey with the numbers? And would you get such a penny-ante rate of return?
"'It"s not unreasonable for people who paid into a system for decades to expect to get their money's worth--that's not an "entitlement," that's honoring a deal. We as a society must also make an ironclad commitment to providing a safety net for those who can't make one for themselves.
ReplyDeleteOn April 20, 1983, Reagan signed a bill to preserve Social Security. At that bill signing, the president said words every Republican should heed:
"This bill demonstrates for all time our nation's ironclad commitment to Social Security. It assures the elderly that America will always keep the promises made in troubled times a half a century ago. It assures those who are still working that they, too, have a pact with the future. From this day forward, they have one pledge that they will get their fair share of benefits when they retire."
President Reagan had it right: Social Security is here to stay. To be sure, we must reform it, root out the fraud, make it more efficient, and ensure that the program is solvent."
The Federal Government has borrowed all the surplus trust fund money and spent it.
It sure has.
ReplyDeleteWell, they must pay.
ReplyDeleteWhere do you propose they get it? Unfunded liabilities of the big "entitlements" (geez, I hate that term) are going to be an ever-bigger slice of the federal budget, to the point where interest on the attempt to shore them up is going to crowd out the government's Constitutionally specified functions.
ReplyDeleteOASI is not an entitlement. Nobody paid into it but me, you and our employers.
ReplyDeleteWhich means you feel like you're entitled to it. You may get some of it, but if this new projection is accurate, you may well outlive its last ounce of solvency.
ReplyDelete