Unprecedentedly bracing candor from John Bolton

Since he resigned as national security advisor, the speculation about when John Bolton would let loose with his real views on national security and world affairs has been ratcheted up considerably. We now have the first taste of that with an interview he did with Axios. I think that with North Korea's talk about a "Christmas present," he feels the pressure of time to speak up.

In his sharpest criticism yet of his old workplace, John Bolton suggested the Trump administration is bluffing about stopping North Korea's nuclear ambitions — and soon might need to admit publicly that its policy failed badly. 

Driving the news: Bolton told me in an interview that he does not think the administration "really means it" when President Trump and top officials vow to stop North Korea from having deliverable nuclear weapons — "or it would be pursuing a different course."

Why now? The president's former national security adviser, who served until September, is speaking out ahead of an end-of-year timetable. If Kim Jong-un follows through on his threatened Christmas provocation, Bolton says the White House should do something "that would be very unusual" for this administration: admit they got it wrong on North Korea.

• "The idea that we are somehow exerting maximum pressure on North Korea is just unfortunately not true," Bolton said.
• For example, he said, the U.S. Navy could start intercepting oil that is illegally being transferred to North Korea at sea. 
• As Bolton sees it, the administration now has more of a "rhetorical policy" that it's unacceptable for North Korea to have nuclear weapons that could hit America or its allies.
• If Kim thumbs his nose at the U.S., Bolton said, he hopes the administration will say: "We've tried. The policy's failed. We're going to go back now and make it clear that in a variety of steps, together with our allies, when we say it's unacceptable, we're going to demonstrate we will not accept it."
• Bolton described his concerns about Trump's North Korea strategy in an interview with Axios late last week. He went significantly further than any of his previous remarks since leaving the administration.

Why it matters: Kim is back on his white horse, and the North Korean nuclear threat may be greater than ever, analysts say.

• North Korea has intimated it will test some kind of advanced weapons in the coming weeks — weapons it's developed as Trump has tried to woo Kim.
• Trump's top envoy to North Korea, Deputy Secretary of State Stephen Biegun, said recently that if North Korea follows through on that threat, it would be "most unhelpful in achieving a lasting peace on the Korean Peninsula."
• Bolton called Biegun's statement "a late entry but a clear winner in the Understatement of the Year Award contest."

Bolton, who has advocated for a more aggressive North Korea strategy, also criticized Trump for sayingearlier this year that Kim's short-range missile tests don't bother him.

• "When the president says, 'Well, I'm not worried about short-range missiles,' he's saying, 'I'm not worried about the potential risk to American troops deployed in the region or our treaty allies, South Korea and Japan.'"

The big picture: The imminent threats from North Korea seem a world away from June 2018, when Trump returned from his Singapore summit with Kim to boast, "There is no longer a nuclear threat from North Korea."

• In reality, Kim has expanded his nuclear arsenal since then, analysts say.
• Using data from analysts and governments around the world, Japan's Nagasaki University estimatedin June that Kim now has as many as 30 nuclear warheads. That's on the lower end of estimates, and it's up from as many as 20 warheads in the same study last year.
• "Even though they're not testing right now, they're operating at full tempo," said Victor Cha, the National Security Council director for Asia under President George W. Bush and Korea chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
• The Trump administration declined to comment.

As the House portion of the impeachment proceedings were underway, there was a lot of clamor on Twitter - from my bunch, conservatives who find Trump objectionable in the extreme, those who frequently get labeled "Never Trumpers - for Bolton to testify. The elephant in the room concerning that was that he had to be subpeonaed, and that didn't happen. I guess he could have stepped forward and said, "I sure would like to come before one of these House committees; I have a lot of important information to share," but I'm guessing his attorney was involved in deciding against that course of action.

Some felt his integrity hinged on it. His track record is that of a man of impeccable integrity. I was confident that he'd be speaking up when he felt the moment was right. He'd already spoken at that Gatestone Institute luncheon a couple of days after leaving the White House. I knew more would be forthcoming soon.

And, as important as nailing down the particulars of Ukraine policy in the Trump era - to what degree, if any, was Trump motivated by trying to hobble Biden politically for the 2020 race? - this issue - North Korea - is the one that is pressing from the standpoint of trying to head off potential calamity in the short term.

Thank you, Ambassador Bolton.