The Erdogan visit

The context of the past several weeks is important to include in any analysis of Erdogan's visit to the White House yesterday.

There was the early October phone call between the two which made official Trump's decision to withdraw US troops from Northern Syria. 

There was the absolutely goofy "Don't be a tough guy! Don't be a fool!" letter about a week later (which Erdogan brought with him to Washington and handed back to the Very Stable Genius). It wasn't a very long communication, but along with the above admonition, its contents ranged from imploring Erdogan, "Let's work out a deal!" to a threat to "obliterate Turkey's economy." Only the VSG knows how to go all over the rhetorical map in such a succinct missive.

Now, on to yesterday's meeting: Nothing much happened, beyond Erdogan thumbing his nose at the principles behind the NATO alliance:

President Donald Trump says he and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan are “very good friends,” but their meeting Wednesday at the White House failed to resolve an issue that has badly strained relations between the two NATO allies.

Trump and Erdogan concluded a visit without achieving an agreement on Turkey’s decision earlier this year to accept delivery of a Russian air defense system that poses such a threat to NATO security that the U.S. suspended Turkish participation in the multinational F-35 fighter jet program.

The Turkish president told reporters he might be persuaded to use the U.S.-made Patriot system “as well” as the Russian S-400. Trump said they would agree to keep working on the issue.

A $100 billion trade agreement would be nothing to sneeze at, assuming it ever happens, but that was about the only productive item on the agenda. There was no progress on the question of the S-4 missile system aside from Erdogan saying he “might” agree to accept our Patriot missile system “additionally” in the future. That doesn’t resolve anything if he still has the NATO incompatible S-4s in place.

Not a word was exchanged about the oppression of the press and Erdogan’s political opponents, along with other human rights violations back in Turkey. The question of the situation with the Kurds in northern Syria was given brief lip service, but that was about it.

Meanwhile, President Trump’s “very good friend” was found to have been mocking usduring a conversation about the Russians prior to the state visit with Trump. (NBC News)

As Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan prepares for Wednesday’s White House meeting with President Donald Trump, he’s threatening to further inflame tensions between Washington and Ankara by purchasing Russian military fighter jets, according to multiple people familiar with the discussions.

Discussions about Turkey purchasing the fighter jets were advanced during a meeting between Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin two weeks ago in Sochi, these people said.

Just as Erdogan was preparing to meet with Trump he was joking about finalizing a Turkish purchase of Russian fighter jets if he’s locked out of the F-35 program. (And he’s not really joking, though he appears to have found the subject humorous.) Is that how you treat your friends when you’re a world leader?

Also worth noting is the role of the, um, inscrutable Lindsey Graham:

Perhaps even stranger than all of that was Lindsey Graham’s role in the proceedings. He’s recently been a vocal and admirable critic of Erdogan, stating that the attack on the Kurds was several bridges too far and calling for sanctions in response. The President invited Graham to take part in the summit, perhaps hoping that they could iron things out a bit and ease some of the Senator’s concerns.
I don’t know if that strategy worked or not, but Graham turned around and did something rather startling. He blocked a Senate resolution recognizing the Armenian genocide. (The Hill)

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) blocked a resolution on Wednesday that would have formally recognized the Ottoman Empire’s genocide against the Armenian people. 

Sen. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.) asked for consent to pass the resolution that would have provided “official recognition and remembrance” of the Armenian genocide.

What possible motivation did Graham have to block that resolution? Is he actually in denial about the Armenian genocide? More likely is the possibility that this was tied directly to the fact that Erdogan was in town. He flagrantly denies there was any sort of genocide of the Armenians and becomes infuriated when other nations bring it up.

But what does Graham get out of the deal? His criticism of Turkey’s incursion into Syria wasn’t addressed. None of the military concerns we’ve discussed here (and have been on the mind of the hawkish senator) were resolved. We basically got nothing out of that meeting, but one of Trump’s most vocal supporters in the Senate scotches the deal on the Senate genocide resolution as a big ole’ gift to Erdogan with a bow wrapped around it? 

It seems to me that the main purpose of hosting Erdogan was to give Trump something to do while the impeachment hearing went down. Stephanie Grisham, Hogan Gidley and indeed the VSG himself were able to portray him as a man of elevated priority. "He was working." Echoes of how Billy Jeff the Zipper concluded his "I-did-not-have-sex-with-that-woman" presser in 1998.

But it illustrates once again how the VSG approaches foreign policy - which is to say, erratically. With Kim Jong-un, he went from "fire and fury" to "beautiful letter" in the blink of an eye. With Ukraine, at least according to Bill Taylor, it's been "I wanna talk about the Bidens." The Finnish president sure was underwhelmed by his diplomacy chops:

Do you have any feedback as to how your stay could be improved? 

Well, I have to say, I would perhaps have done certain things slightly differently. For instance, it was clear that President Trump had many things he wanted to get off his chest, primarily about someone named Adam Schiff, but also about the governor of California? I found this unseemly emotional outburst off-putting. I would not have asked him to stand there while I had an emotional outburst. To me, a more seemly way of showing disapproval would be to purchase and then quietly hand them a Marimekko design that is in an unpleasing color — although, such a Marimekko design does not exist?

I do not understand why it was necessary for me to sit there silently like an Artek daybed (although even when they are silent, Artek daybeds make statements). He kept yelling about a perfect conversation, but if it was anything like the conversation we had, I would say it was not perfect. A perfect conversation, to us in Finland, is one in which the freedom of the press is respected and people do not shout, say inaccurate things about the European Union and give the press mean nicknames. We reserve this kind of saltiness for our licorice.

Also, I would say, it is embarrassing for a leader to hector his press and call them fake. It makes him look bad, and it is uncomfortable. It seemed as though this was the kind of thing you would want to save for later, when you were alone, after you were not trying to impress people anymore. Indeed, I started to wonder: Does he know that I am here? I am just sitting here like the "J" in “fjord” or the many treasures of Helsinki: I am there, but nobody thinks about me. I began to feel that I had blended into the chair, but then he placed his hand on my knee, so I knew I had not been forgotten.

In Finland, we are proud of our free press. The United States, too, should be proud. They should not let this man insult one of the things that should be a source of national pride. Does he do this to Tiffany lamps and the Grand Canyon?

I kept thinking, should I say something? Then the president yelled at a reporter for not directing his question to me, but when he did direct the question to me, the president interrupted and made it difficult for me to answer. On the whole, it was confusing. 

Deals and threats, and preoccupations with petty domestic squabbles during visits by foreign leaders, but no underlying set of principles or understanding of historic dynamics.

Shills, this isn't winning.