Wednesday, October 17, 2018

Dealing with the entitlement crisis is a prime example of why populism must not overshadow conservatism

LITD recently liked to a bracing and unflinching Manhattan Institute proposal for a federal budget that once and for all stems the tide of increasing government indebtedness.

Michael R. Strain at the American Enterprise Institute offers another important contribution to the conversation. He examines the political and ideological angle. In fact, the title of his piece at Bloomberg is, "If Republicans Won't Confront Entitlements, Who Will?"

He reviews the recent lack of Republican spine from ostensible conservatives, which mainly has appeared during election cycles when the likes of Mitt Romney and, more unfortunately, Paul Ryan, felt the need to couch their intentions in terms of "protecting" Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid from those who would cut spending on them.

But now we have layered upon that customary fecklessness this new populism that swept over the nation's political scene with the advent of the Very Stable Genius:

President Donald Trump’s position on Medicare and Social Security has carried over from campaign season and is outside the Republican norm.
He has repeatedly stated that he will not cut spending on Medicare and Social Security. The president's will about this appears to be strong. For example, he resisted his budget director’s attempt last fall to advocate for changes in Medicare and Social Security that would reduce their future spending along with the national debt.
For his part, House Speaker Ryan has still presented the typical GOP view. “Good reforms can mean that we can better perform the mission of these important programs, health and retirement security, without bankrupting the country,” he said last month. The speaker expressed optimism that if Republicans keep the House and expand their majority in the Senate following next month’s midterm elections, then such reforms could occur.
Count me as skeptical. Congressional Republicans have been quite happy to go where the president is pointing on entitlements and on much else. If anything, Democrats are moving toward expanding spending on these programs.
If Congressional conservatives don't grow spines and forthrightly address this, their principles will be hopelessly muddied, and there will be real-life implications:

Entitlement reform is more than an accounting exercise. At stake is the health care and retirement security for future generations. The sooner we act, the better we will be able to protect those who will be affected by the change. Conservatism has seen this issue as an exercise in advancing the common good.

The GOP’s turn away from reducing future entitlement spending is bad for conservatism, which has prided itself on promoting the common good and possessing a serious governing vision based on objective reality and prudent judgment.  
Populism is polluting this vision. President Trump knows who elected him, and many of his supporters think they would be hurt by changes to Medicare and Social Security. The GOP’s abandonment of entitlement reform is another example of putting the good of the whole aside in favor of what’s good for the tribe. 

Relying on the Very Stable Genius to have a "very good brain" and have a plan to "take care of everybody" is a pretty poor substitute for looking squarely at what we're facing and putting on the big-boy pants and dealing with it.

We'e here because about a hundred years ago, this nation became enamored of the notion that government ought to address the two givens of the human condition: getting sick and growing old. It was a bad idea, but that's water under the bridge. We now have to do what's necessary to avert the country being submerged in debt we can't ever repay.

19 comments:

  1. You're NOT going to cram your social security and medicare reform up us like you did your corporate tax cut which left out the middle class. We see your horns, and do not fear your spine.

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  2. Dems didn't cause the deficit to rise 17% which is now your rationale.

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  3. Even your phraseology is suspect. OASI and Medicare are not entitlements, they're social insurance programs. If your ilk tries to cram reform up our posteriors with no opposition support your efforts are doomed, Mr. Freedomlover.

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    1. You claim that the health care and retirement prospects of future generations are threatened. How so? And of so, are they not threatened by he poor performance of private market plans as well? And it was the Great Depression 80 years ago that provides the impetus for old age and survivors insurance. Are we depression proof today? Another market and banking collapse is not at all inconceivable.

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  4. Stop it. The stock market has had an astronomically superior average rate of return compared to Social Security.

    Another collapse is certainly possible. Maybe even probable. But it's not the proper function of government to mitigate individual citizens' financial risk.

    But these are still side considerations. The main point is that these "social insurance" programs are awash in unfunded liabilities and on track to drag our government and entire economy into chaos.

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  5. Well we shall wait and watch the debate won't we?

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  6. Because you only have one side and you're really not that informed on the entire historical and legal issues, especially as ignorant as it is for you to applaud tax cuts for corporations before you cut costs. Idiotic. That's why you got no Dem votes. Your former party's President is not even for it. Won't go there with his reductions. You just float out there with your principles. They're not shared by all. Nor do we necessarily believe a wolf you say or write.

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  7. Word not wolf, but that's an apt description of the social insurance marauders.

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  8. Our country made a commitment during the Depression to make sure that everyone and their families would be protected as they aged and if they became disabled. But national commitments don't renew themselves. Voting does.
    The tax cuts in 2017 were a result of the Republican control of the federal government -- almost all Republicans voted for the tax cuts and almost all Democrats did not. The cuts added $1 trillion to the federal deficit and the nonpartisan Joint Committee on Taxation did not support Republican arguments that the $1.5 trillion tax cut would pay for itself with economic growth. Senator McConnell's announcement today makes clear political elites will use Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid as bargaining chips in budget negotiations and call for cuts in government spending. The higher deficits caused by the tax cuts of 2017 will fuel the chronic attack to cut the programs

    Any clear-sighted look at Social Security’s finances, free of politically motivated spin, shows that the program is in strong shape. It has a reserve fund to pay all benefits until 2034 without any change in current policy. And with some small policy changes—for instance, raising the payroll tax by 2.83 percentage points (shared between employer and employee) or eliminating the earnings cap—we could put the system in balance for the next 75 years. (The earning cap means that only wage income up to a certain ceiling is currently subject to Social Security taxes. In 2019, it will be $132,900, but that figure will rise in response to wage inflation.) We are easily poised to keep the system healthy well into the future.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/teresaghilarducci/2018/10/16/senate-republicans-set-sights-on-cutting-social-security/#635b07af5da1

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  9. Ghilarducci lets the world know she's full of shit in that first paragraph, with that shit about government being a vital financial partner. That's exactly counter to the Framers' conception of the role of government. So it's really hard for anyone who cherishes freedom to stay with her, but let's try.

    Her Reality Number One states that the Big Three "social insurance" programs are "essential." They are not, although now that they have been in place for decades, a lot of people are under the impression that they are.

    And that shit about "the government is part of your financial life and always will be" shows how up to her eyeballs in shit she is. Was the government part of anybody's financial life prior to about 100 years ago?

    She quite readily admits that raising the payroll tax by 2.83 percentage points or eliminating the earnings cap is going to be necessary beyond 2034.

    And, like all leftists, she wants the argument about tax cuts to hinge on whether they will "pay for themselves." That is far from the central issue. The central issue is that when a person - and yes, a corporation - earns some money, it's theirs. Government has no justifiable claim to one stinking penny of it beyond what's needed for constitutionally specified functions.

    Don't listen to this Gharducci lady, America. She thinks it's fine if you give up your humanity and become cattle.

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  10. I will too listen to this former professor at Notre Dame now at the New School of Economocs. You need to pull your head out of the founders' skelatal posteriors and take a whiff of 20th and 21st Century legal development. You calling my grandparents, parents and siblings cattle? I think you've got a.personal bone to pick with OASI. What is it? Had to.pay too much in or not gonna get enough out? Did your grandparents refuse to cash their checks and become cattle? What about your spouse and sibling? Moo!

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  11. No personal bone. Just two things: It's a crummy investment tool - so crummy it's financially teetering - and the more fundamental principle that government has no business being involved in how people plan for their sunset years.

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  12. The most insidious part of all this is how the it's-a-done-deal mindset has infected most discussion about this. I have no patience for anyone - and maybe even right-leaners more than left - who say, "There's no putting that genie back in the bottle. The American people have come to accept this degree of government presence in their lives."

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  13. You're denigrating social security recipients. And it is not as crummy an investment tool as you contend. You simply don't believe what I have posted. And why are private market retirement funds floundering now? I get that risk is unavoidable but you dont get that pooling it is the key to, if not surmounting it. At this stage of my life I'm ready to cash in on what I and ny.spouse have put in. And to have people like you debase us as cattle and.implunthatnqe are ruining retirement and medical care for our children and grandchildren is preposterous. To pass the huge corporate tax cut without addressing lawful liabilities is base and gross negligence and you will find that your proposals are met with scorn at the ballot box. And if you want to think that that's all we poor cattle got in our portfolios you're mistaken. But why wouldn't we take that extra Mil or so assuming we live long enough? And another Great Crash may well be upon us in our lifetime. I am certain that, as you say, your former.party's president will never advocate for repealing OASI. And I hope people are paying attention to what your ilk advocates and vote you out. Social Security and Medicare will be saved and will thrive if we have the will. You dont have any interest in saving them and therefore you trash them. You better hope the left who you infer are all Dems and therefore cattle prodders or cattle as their roles may be keeps misbehavin.

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  14. The employment stats belie it but we are on the cusp of a great disruption from AI and robotics that many are theorizing will bring a greater, not lesser role, to government in helping us provide. And who says the mind control of advertising that we've all pretty much suckered into that tells us we have to have whiter shirts, the latest motor vehicle and all is freedom?

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  15. There are two alternatives in all of this: individual sovereignty, or total control by the state.

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