Friday, September 1, 2017

The North Korean conundrum doesn't exist in a vacuum

Matthew R.J. Brodsky, a senior fellow at the Security Studies Group and senior Middle East analyst at Wikistrat, writing at NRO, details the connections between the Hermit Kingdom and Iran and Syria:

Last week, Reuters revealed the existence of a confidential U.N. report claiming that two North Korean shipments bound for the government agency in charge of Syria’s chemical weapons were intercepted in the past six months.

Put in its proper context, the news of the shipments, both of which violated existing international sanctions, is further evidence of North Korea’s nefarious role in spreading weapons of mass destruction and missile technology to other rogue regimes across the globe. The U.N. report highlights the extent to which North Korea has been a principal strategic partner to Iran and Syria for decades. Understood correctly, it should have major implications not only for how the U.S. handles the saber-rattling regime of Kim Jong-un but for how the Trump administration chooses to approach Iran today.
Pulling a single thread reveals the tangled web of relations between Pyongyang, Tehran, and Damascus. Take, for instance, the 2007 Israeli raid that destroyed Syria’s covert nuclear reactor. North Korean scientists provided the technology and material for that reactor, which, according to former CIA director Michael Hayden, was “an exact copy” of a North Korean reactor. “The Koreans were the only ones to build these reactors since they purloined the designs from the British in the 1960s,” Hayden recalled. Ten North Koreans who “had been helping with the construction” of the Syrian reactor were killed in the Israeli strike, according to media reports at the time.

In 1991, then-Syrian president Hafez al-Assad made a military-acquisition alliance with North Korea, which allowed him to purchase missiles from the North, and gave him access to the expertise needed to produce more-advanced weapons domestically. North Korea also helped the Syrian Scientific Studies and Research Center construct a missile complex in Aleppo used for fitting chemical weapons on Scud missiles in the early 1990s. A quarter century later, it turns out the two recently intercepted North Korean shipments were headed for the same Syrian agency.
He makes clear the supremely dangerous folly of the whole process of patty-cake whereby the JCPOA was foisted on the world:

The watershed year between the two states came in 2012, as President Obama was concluding his disastrous nuclear deal with Tehran. According to detailed analysis published in February by Israel’s BESA Center, since reaching their cooperation agreement, North Korea and Iran have been working on “miniaturizing a nuclear implosion device in order to fit its dimensions and weight to the specifications of the Shahab-3 re-entry vehicle.” The authors of that analysis went on to conclude that, “the nuclear and ballistic interfaces between the two countries” are “long-lasting, unique, and intriguing,” and that North Korea is ready and able to clandestinely assist Iran in circumventing the nuclear deal, while Iran is likely helping North Korea upgrade its own strategic capacities.

The Parchin Connection

It should set off alarm bells that North Korea and Iran have been working together to overcome some of the remaining challenges that prevent Pyongyang from targeting the U.S. homeland with nuclear warheads — namely, the warhead-miniaturization process and the perfection of its long-range ballistic missiles. But it should set off sirens that some of that work has been carried out at Parchin, the Iranian facility that Tehran insists is a military site and keeps off limits to international inspections.

Parchin should be familiar. When Obama administration officials were cooking up their nuclear deal with Iran, they repeatedly promised that critically important “anytime, anywhere” inspections would have to be part of the agreement. What happened instead was that they folded like a tablecloth, as they did on every declared red-line issue crucial to verifying Iran’s past nuclear-related military activity. In 2015, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei personally and repeatedly rejected any access to what he called military sites, including Parchin. So Team Obama came up with a secret side agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which would allow Iran to inspect its own site and provide its own soil samples.

Anyone could have guessed what would happen next.
Yup. A new report from the Institute for Science and International Security has revealed Mn-made uranium on samples taken by the IAEA.

Something the US has not done - at least very well - so far is present a unified policy for dealing with rogue regimes with nuclear ambitions.

The world's bad guys are in touch with each other and cannot be dealt with in piecemeal fashion.

19 comments:



  1. 'I fear that Kim will either launch a nuclear-tipped missile at a US ally or maybe the US itself, or bring things to a brink at which the US will have to initiate something that will be as ugly as anything in human history because there is no other response."
    Mao said to Henry Kissinger some time ago, "why would we start a war with our best customer?" I do not think anything there is really changing quickly.

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  2. Interesting News
    Russia blasts U.S. plan to search closed Washington, D.C. trade mission as ‘unprecedented aggressive action’

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  3. Never forget that the US is not alone in this. I don't want to be alone with Trump.

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  4. After this latest "test" of a hydrogen head 70 times more powerful than our bombs which we dropped on Nagasaki & Hiroshima, Trump, when asked if he will attack Norkor now says, "we'll see." Of Trump's remarks before that, Cruz says it's beneficial for China and North Korea to understand we have a President who is strong. http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/cruz-i-wouldnt-speak-about-north-korea-threats-the-way-trump-does/ar-AArb3Pb?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=SL5JDHP

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  5. Why spend resources chasing the lunatic from North Korea?
    It is China's problem child, it is either fixed in the region or China will deal with ever increasing instability. That's bad for business, then very bad for N. Korea.

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  6. Um, yeayeah Ted, "it's beneficial for China and North Korea to know we have a President who is strong. You left out the dumbass part. Is that how you looked at Trump when he announced to the world your daddy helped kill JFK?

    "It’s not clear what time Donald Trump, our restless President, was told of the latest North Korean nuclear test, which took place close to midnight Saturday, Washington time, and was that nation’s largest yet—Kim Jong-un’s first hydrogen bomb, apparently. But it only took until 7:30 A.M. for Trump to make an extremely dangerous and volatile situation worse. He did so, in part, by attacking South Korea, America’s ally and a country at risk in any confrontation—its capital, Seoul, home to ten million people, is close to the border, within range of the North’s artillery—for a supposed lack of toughness. Even at a moment of historic crisis, Trump can’t shake his bully’s instincts: disdain those who you think are weak; home in on and mock the vulnerable; blind yourself to the realities of your own circumstances and character; and pretend that a brawl will make it all better, despite the certainty that it won’t."

    http://www.newyorker.com/news/amy-davidson-sorkin/donald-trumps-reckless-response-to-north-koreas-test?mbid=social_facebook

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  7. Beijing release; "we will not tolerate an act of war on the Asian peninsula." Back to business.

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  8. Blame who you will, but we've known that since 1950. Only an armistice since 7/27/53.

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  9. Diatomaceous earth, that works for bugs. There is no way N Korea attacks anyone. China will wipe them out first.

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  10. The rocket engines N Korea uses were designed and mostly built in Russia, forwarded to Iran, then forwarded to N Korea.

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  11. Well, thank heaven all these bad guys finally realize as Cruz says, how strong this President is. Good for them because I sure don't feel the least bit confident in Trump.

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  12. Trump Dumps are waning old.

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  13. Isn't it Ironic we are getting what can and will be viewed as God smacked by the weather badly this season and little humans are running their mouths off about nuclear retaliation and/or proliferation When will we ever learn? Silly human race....

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  14. Michael: re: Why spend resources chasing the lunatic from North Korea?
    It is China's problem child, it is either fixed in the region or China will deal with ever increasing instability: Because China is clearly, as it has demonstrated for the two decades or so that this problem has been moving toward its denouement, not interested in the kind of solution that aligns with the West's security interests, namely, a North Korea with no trace of a nuclear-bomb or strategic missile program.

    Re: How Trump is approaching this: It's true that some aspects show the typical Trump recklessness, such as taking South Korea to task on Twitter. But the basic message that all major figures of the administration are sending is exactly the right message: that the United States is not going to live with a state of nuclear extortion in perpetuity.

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  15. This is a UN mission. We could all do better without what Cruz seems to admire as the strong Trump and his big strong mouth, er, message.

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  16. The UN is utterly worthless. Utterly incapable of dealing with this.

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  18. This was and still is a UN mission, thank God!

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  19. I think it is nuclear perpetuity. What we call rouge states whether we like or not are going to acquire greater weapons. Maybe our choice is better accept a level of world impotence. The only other choice is an increasingly (US) great power not stopping protecting something we increasingly call Western Christianity. That did not work very well during the crusades.

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