Monday, September 18, 2017

Japan's prime minister understands the stakes

I'd post the the op-ed itself, but it's behind the NYT paywall. Here is strieff's excerpt of the key part, as well as his commentary on it, at Red State:

Yesterday, the most extraordinary op-ed ran in the New York Times. It was by Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. The subject was North Korea.
He gives a concise overview of what negotiating with North Korea gets you:
In the early 1990s, North Korea’s announcement to withdraw from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and the International Atomic Energy Agency was a wake-up call. In response, Japan, the United States and South Korea engaged in dialogue with North Korea and agreed to construct two light-water reactors and to provide heavy fuel oil in exchange for freezing and ultimately dismantling its nuclear program. Japan, the United States and South Korea shouldered most of the financial burden, with the cooperation of Europe and other Asian countries.
We know what happened next: Several years after the heavy fuel oil was delivered and construction started on the light-water reactors, North Korea admitted to having a uranium enrichment program in violation of the agreement.
By the end of 2002, North Korea expelled I.A.E.A. inspectors, followed by an official withdrawal from the NPT in 2003. China and Russia then joined Japan, the United States and South Korea to create the six-party talks with the North. Pyongyang again agreed to the verifiable denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. But instead, it declared itself a nuclear power in 2005 and carried out a nuclear test in 2006. The five countries’ attempt to solve the problem through dialogue failed.
In short, while the international community provided North Korea with sanctions relief and support as “compensation” for its pledges, the regime ignored most of its commitments.
And he rightly comes to this conclusion:
Considering this history and its continuing missile launches and nuclear tests, more dialogue with North Korea would be a dead end. Pyongyang would see more talks as proof that other countries succumbed to the success of its missile launches and nuclear tests. Now is the time to exert the utmost pressure on the North. There should be no more delays.
He is exactly right.

Winston Churchill is famous for his saying that “jaw-jaw is better than war-war.” Churchill, unlike an enormous number of academics and think-tank denizens, never mistook “jaw-jaw” for appeasement. The international community has offered the North Koreans a way forward. Denuclearize and demobilize your ballistic missiles, in other words, comply with a couple of decades of UN Security Council resolutions and then we can discuss economic aid.

Abe’s statement is a very neat fit with the White House press conference by Nikki Haley and H. R. McMaster on Friday where they both said that time was running out. And over the weekend, McMaster reiterated on FoxNews Sunday:
This regime is so close now to threatening the United States and others with a nuclear weapon that we really have to move with a great deal of urgency on sanctions, on diplomacy and on preparing, if necessary, a military option. 
My post from this morning on Stephen C. Meyer pointing out that a higher-altitude and space-based missile defense system could be a way out of our existential pickle mentions that such a system could, if made high-priority, be ready to go in a year.

The question is whether we have that long.

14 comments:

  1. How does a regime being provided rocket engines from Russia, and launch assistance from China merit our largest concerns. It would be as easy to send a nuclear weapon upon a truck trailer shipping transport. Business remains the priority, causalities aside these days I guess. Brave new world.

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  2. For crying out loud, Michael. I'm not sure exactly how your mentioning the rocket engines and launch assistance makes some kind of point - perhaps you were trying to point up the fact that NK's resources are paltry without its few remaining allies - but the reality is as McMaster and Haley depict it.

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  3. I am not worried about a novel missile, I think our ports are very vulnerable. That is the reality I see.

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  4. When Ike decided to do the 49th Parallel deal he threatened to use nukes if China & NK did not come to the table. This time it is going to be disgusting: Twitter Man vs Rocket Man. So sad beyond belief and I still deny how terrifying this will likely be long before the end.

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  5. I think I was just assessing whom has who as allies.

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  6. Mr. Dings, you might want to look at whether you're starting to succumb to the I-hate-Trump-so-much-I-can't-keep-him-from-entering-any-policy-or-culture-discussion-no-matter-how-remotely-he's-part-of-it syndrome.

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  7. He's not a remote part if. We living/breathing humans for humanity are. Trump has the whole world by the codes. A major reason this has alll escalated so quickly is Teump.Bit hawks of all getters envision a feast of fire & fury.

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  8. Oh, so North Korea hasn't tested missiles 12 times in 2017, two of them over Japan, and a hydrogen bomb?

    You mean Trump and some goup of "hawks" made all that up?

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  9. Trump, though you appear to agree with him here with his fire & fury threats, is exactly the problem. His brash and insulting demeanor reaps just what it sows world wide. Clueless fundamentalists see him as sent from God, but sure looks like the devil to me. Have at it with your fire & fury boys. Don't forget: it's going to be a mass funeral for that eye in the sky to perhaps weap over, if only for the children...

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  10. Now we're talking about fundamentalists. Pretty far afield from Shinzo Abe, Nikki Haley and H R McMaster stressing the urgency of the North Korea threat.

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  11. A higher-altitude and space-based missile defense system though in embryonic stage exist now. Likely more than is realized this will be affective for a time, then down the rabbit hole of technology.

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  12. Not really. If Trump "has to" destroy NK it is nothing but a failure of diplomacy and other peaceful resolution like through the UN which is conveniently being marginalized. Fire & Fury, while it is the tough talk you yearned for from Obama and even Bush, is the equivalent of the cops utilizing assault weaponry to obliterate a defective derringer holder. Fine Fundies turned the electoral tide for this monster of a president we have now and thus it is relevant, my dear professorial blogneister extroidinare.

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  13. I've been busy today w/ day-job writing but I just checked in and DJT UN address getting very favorable reviews from venues not known to be favorable to him: NRO, Commentary, Resurgent. Apparently served notice that US will not tolerate hostility moves by world's bad guys.

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