Sunday, March 4, 2018

Is the Syrian civil war about to draw Israel in?

It's been going on since 2011, and, as with a lot of Mideast civil wars, has become multilayered. Still, Israel, and the overall danger it faces from Iran, has largely remained a separate issue. Yes, Hezbollah is Iran's proxy in the area, but, like other parties to the Syrian conflict, it had other fish to fry.

That may be about to change:

US Sen. Lindsey Graham warned Feb. 27 after a trip to the Middle East that Israel was preparing for war. Hezbollah appears to be ready for the possibility. It is honing its skills and playing a multifaceted role in Syria, where it has also realized several important goals, according to one of its militants and sources close to the Lebanese group.
Syria is facing a new turn in its civil war, and Hezbollah militants haven't shown this much anticipation at the possibility of a conflict with Israel since the beginning of the Syrian revolution in 2011.
“We are very ready for the possibility of a war breaking out, and it will be unlike any other,” said Ahmad, a Hezbollah sniper who spoke with Al-Monitor in Lebanon on condition of anonymity.
A source close to Hezbollah fighters, who also spoke on condition of anonymity, told Al-Monitor that the recent February faceoff between Israel on one side and Iran, Hezbollah and Syria on the other was an ambush staged by Tehran.
On Feb. 10, Syria shot down an Israeli F-16 fighter jet, after an Iranian drone was launched into Israel, followed by an Israeli attack on Syria and Iranian interests in Syria. “The Iranians are fed up with Israel’s systematic targeting of weapon plants and the destruction of weapon transfers to Hezbollah. The targeting of Israeli planes is primarily an Iranian message to the Israelis that the rules of engagement have changed in Syria,” the source said. Israel has bombed Syrian and Iranian interests — including Hezbollah’s — more than 100 times in Syria.
Since 2011, Hezbollah’s deployment in Syria has been creeping into the war, which initially pitted the regime of President Bashar al-Assad against a mostly Sunni-led rebellion. Hezbollah, a Lebanese Shiite militant group, intervened against what it saw as a direct threat to its Syrian ally, which is considered an essential element in Iran’s "resistance axis" formed by Iran, Syria and Hezbollah at the time.
Hezbollah has intermittently deployed 2,000-8,000 fighters, Syria expert Samir Hassan told Al-Monitor. These forces have led coordinated offensive military operations with other armies and planned battles in a joint operation with Iran and Russia. They have also played a prominent role in training pro-regime militias, according to previous Al-Monitor interviews of Hezbollah militants.
Middle East Forum researcher Aymen Jawad Tamimi told Al-Monitor the leading role played by Hezbollah’s backer, Iran, in training and organizing the Syrian National Defense Forces and the Local Defense Forces.
Ahmad, the sniper, said, “Hezbollah has commanders and advisers posted within these forces,” adding that the Lebanese organization’s training role is now limited, as most forces have achieved a high-performance capability. Previous interviews with Hezbollah fighters showed that training encompassed ideological to physical courses as well as reconnaissance missions and the use of various weaponry.

Hezbollah has two qualities that provide it with an advantage in this situation: the ability to mobilize quickly, and its arsenal of precision-guided surface-to-surface missiles, which came from - guess where.

Syria lurks in the backs of everyone's minds as an ongoing tragedy, but unless there is some particular incident with  worldwide import, it's not often a front-burner issue for world-affairs observers. But when one considers the above development, as well as Turkish involvement in Syria's north and the implications for that in US support for certain Kurdish elements, as well as the Russian presence (recall that last week US forces wiped out 300 Russian mercenaries), we're reminded that we must not take our eye off Syria. Much is happening there that has wider implications.

3 comments:

  1. Reports are that their poison gas came from North Korea and I don't think it's fake news or another WMD fiction. NPR is even convinced.

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  2. If anybody will Donnie will. Draw us in over Israel, I truly believe that. Might be one of those many things your ilk likes about what Donnie does.

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  3. Kudos to you for connecting the dots. North Korea is not an isolated problem.

    Of course, if Israel is threatened beyond its own capacity to respond, we'll have to get involved. But at present it doesn't look necessary.

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