Tuesday, March 6, 2018

A couple of caveats about this seeming North Korean about-face

Let's not get carried away with this North Korean announcement that it's willing to "denuclearize." I know the Moon administration in South Korea wants to put that word front and center in the conversation, but all the DPRK has concretely "promised" is to halt missile and weapon tests while talking to the US.

It has a track record of fizzled agreements on that score:

● In October 1994, then-President Clinton approved $4 billion in energy aid to North Korea in return for its promise to freeze and eventually dismantle the country’s nuclear program.
● In September 2005, the Communist country agreed to end its nuclear program in return for security, energy benefits, and easing tensions with the U.S.
● In October 2007, the North Koreans agreed to disable all nuclear facilities by year’s end.
● In February 2012, North Korea said it would suspend nuclear weapons testing and uranium enrichment. It also promised to allow international inspectors to monitor its activities at its main atomic complex.
And there's something big we don't know yet. No one, not the Moon administration and certainly not the US, can just take this at face value after the alarming increase in momentum of the North's provocations over the last couple of years. There's some kind of missing element.

The first question that needs to be raised is, "Why is the Kim regime doing this at this particular moment?" There may be some behind-the-scenes maneuvering by the US or some other player that logically explains it, but until we know what that is, a raised eyebrow is the appropriate reaction.

3 comments:

  1. Dennis Praeger says Trump done it. His spin is that Trump acts like these dictators and his loose cannon befuddles their loose cannon as they've never experienced an American leader as nuts as they are. Then he got into it with a lady who said it was Moon that done it. It does look like fore and fury only incited Kim but it's all over now.

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  2. I would think the increasingly toughening UN sanctions might be having at least a moderate effect, perhaps as much as Trump's threats of fire and fury and his reminders about how big his button is.

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  3. Sanctions have been getting tougher, for sure. This is going to be most interesting to follow.

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