Saturday, February 6, 2016

The consequences of Most Equal Comrade's non-policy on Syria

There's a good chance Aleppo, Syria's largest city, held by a loose conglomeration of anti-Assad forces since 2012, is going to be retaken by the Assad regime, with much help from relentless air pounding by Russia.

The UN "peace" talks that had gotten underway in Geneva have been suspended.

Remaining rebel forces - some jihadist, some "moderate - fear an Alamo-style bloodbath as the final encircling commences.

But post-America has faded as a player in the situation.

U.S. officials have no plans to help Assad’s opponents, even those they have backed in the past to stop the Syrian army’s advances. Rather, U.S. military officials condemned Russia for working to prop up the Assad regime, while saying U.S.-led coalition airstrike campaign has one aim—to pound the self-proclaimed Islamic State, or ISIS.

Those who, unlike the Most Equal Comrade, make a point of understanding the full dynamics of conflict situations, see a mishmash where a consistent policy should have been:

[Some Pentagon officials] call the potential fall of Aleppo a result of a failed U.S. approach.
“Russians understand war. Americans understand managing conflicts to get unsatisfactory results,” one official familiar with the U.S. military campaign told The Daily Beast.  The approach of both nations “tells the region who the players are. America is feckless and Russia and Iran are reliable allies.”
Either way, the lack of U.S. action was the strongest signal yet that the Obama administration has moved far away from its own stated position that Assad must go, said Daveed Gartenstein-Ross, a senior fellow at the Washington, D.C.-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
Aleppo “leaves the United States in a complicated situation and tilting much towards the position that Assad will stay. Full stop,” Gartenstein-Ross said. 

Now, is there anything compelling about the argument that Syria was never so strategically important that the US should have weighed in as a major stakeholder? I think it merits a hearing anyway, but when you have a chain of position twists and turns dating back to Hillionaire calling the Assad regime a force for stability, and her successor at State, Global-Test, while he was still a Senator, going over there to dine with Assad, and then the Most Equal Comrade (and G-T), after Syria became an Arab Spring nation, pronouncing that "Assad must go," and now this, it sends signals throughout the world.

Iran, one of our mortal enemies, and Russia, our most formidable adversary, are, along with an obviously grateful Assad, the main players shaping events in the Middle east.

Well, also ISIS, which still has its caliphate.

As well as thousands of fighters in Libya, another failed Arab Spring state that had a chance to weather that episode, but for the Most Equal Comrade's let's-you-and-him-fight / lead-from-behind position switch to an insistence that Gaddafi also had to go.

Well-played, if your goal is to diminish post-America's influence in the world as part of an overall program of planned decline.

3 comments:

  1. The idea of shaping events in the Middle East is what got us where we are today. Call it planned decline if you will, but I'd like to know where we've successfully shaped events elsewhere over the long term so I can at least look to a success or two to point the way forward to making America Great Again!

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  2. And Russia sure kicked military ass in Afghanistan didn't they, some great example of the understanding of war.

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  3. For the example you're requesting, look no further than the fact that after the spread of Communism over eastern Europe, it went no further on that continent up through the fall of the Soviet Union. That was due to the shaping of events by the United States - its leadership role in forming NATO and keeping it strong, the Marshall Plan, the Pershing missiles in Germany.
    Actually, speaking of the Middle East, while the rise of Nasser, the Suez Canal Crisis of 1956, and the 1967 and 1973 wars were counter to US interests, they were each resolved without escalating to the level of an irreversible world crisis. And Iran and Iraq each got new regimes in 1979, you'll recall. 1979 was a nadir for America's ability to shape events as no year had been since - well, when?

    Re: Soviets in Afghanistan: your point is? Of course, they badly miscalculated.

    There's also Latin America. Granted, we were caught by surprise by the Castro revolution in Cuba, but other than that, no Soviet proxy forces were able to have any success there until - well, that watershed year 1979.

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