Wednesday, February 14, 2018

The military-budget increase: still not enough

Mackenzie Eaglen at the American Enterprise Institute says, "Good start, but not sufficient":

Secretary Mattis’s National Defense Strategy targets readiness, lethality and reforms to better counter great power competition from China and Russia. Yet President Trump’s budget calls for only a 2% annual increase in defense spending — enough to dig the Pentagon out of its current hole, but not enough to pursue the pivot envisioned in Mattis’s NDS or the rebuild touted by Trump on the campaign trail.
Here’s where some of those promises stand:
  • Grow the Army rapidly (the budget adds just 4,000 active duty soldiers)
  • Build a 350-ship Navy (now projected to take until the 2050s)
  • Increase the size of the combat Air Force (two active fighter squadrons will be established in 2019, but one Guard squadron will disbanded)
Although Mattis has said that the spending requests for 2018 and 2019 will restore the U.S. “to a position of primacy,” that remains an open question. The long-term growth projected of 2-3% per year, is a far cry from the 3-5% real annual growth he has previously called for to sustain the health of the force.
In fact, the Pentagon’s five-year budget plan shows inflation-only adjustments, with virtually zero real growth. The budget actually loses ground over time due to inflation given that CBO projects it will be 2% annually, so we may see negative real growth for the rest of Trump’s tenure.
Why it matters: Given the deteriorating international situation, the likely outlook for U.S. defense spending dims the prospects for Mattis’s long-term strategic goals — and for the military’s ability to catch up after years of atrophy.

Given the latest annual global-threats report  from the intelligence community, this had better be taken seriously. The introduction says that the risk of interstate conflict is higher than at any time since the end of the Cold War.

19 comments:

  1. Then why did Trump ram his tax cuts through before his budget? The industrial complex that feeds the military complex gets a twofer of financial love now. And any moron (and Trump has been called one even by at least one of his cabinet members) can boom an economy with defense (war) spending. You're a hawk anyway. I want to know why these dire international threats are ramping up a bare year into the Trump administration. Ya think we're gonna have a war? Or do we wait until we're ramped up? Can't you see that this is all about Trump--the self-styled Andrew Jackson (Indian Killer aka Sharp Knife) of the 21st Century?

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  2. These threats didn’t appear suddenly and no one is claiming that. A number of them would be less dire if they’d been properly dealt with years ago.

    Trump didn’t “ram a tax cut.” The legislative branch comes up with tax policy.

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  3. So Trump didn't pressure Republican leaders to hurry up and show him a victory after his other sound legislative defeats in his sad and sorry first year?

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  4. A number of the alleged dire threats would be less dire if we continued on the path of statecraft, but, hey, if military spending scares the bejesus out of our enemies and brings them to their knees like you want it to then it might be a good thing. My guess is that they will retaliate with proliferation too. I think you've got another thing coming if you think Americans want to rush into battle for Netanyahu. But of course Trump has and will ratchet up the fear factor. Now he wants that big parade. Ego all the way.

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  5. “Stayecraft” was stupid and worthless. It amounted to appeasing our mortal enemies and emboldening our adversaries.

    Sure, Trump pressured Republican leaders. But those leaders barely cobbled together the majority necessary to pass the tax reform bill.

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  6. You are either wilfully ignorant or need to get a dementia test. To refresh your memory of last summer just google 'trump pressures congress tax cut.' Here's a sample from the Washington Times (one of your con rags): After failing to get a bill through the Senate last month to repeal and replace Obamacare, Mr. Trump said the spotlight is on Congress to succeed on tax reform.

    “I don’t want to be disappointed by Congress, do you understand me?” Mr. Trump said. “I think Congress is going to make a comeback. I hope so. The United States is counting on it.”

    You can find hundreds of links to explore. Again, in case you forgot up there, google 'trump pressures congress tax cut.' Got it? Let me know if there is still any doubt in your mind that Trump did not pressure Congress (well, at least the Republicans who rammed it up the American people, ignoring the deficit then, as they are now when it comes budget time).

    http://amp.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/aug/30/donald-trump-outlines-tax-cut-plan-pressures-congr/






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  7. Fury Fire aka Big Button desired to give the American people his egotistical (but hollow, as we shall later see) Congressional victory before Christmas. What The Donald desires, the Donald better get, right?

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  8. Plenty of Representatives and Senators wanted big tax cuts completely aside from Trump pressure. And God bless ‘em Yay tax cuts!
    What irritates me about the recent spending agreement is the way Pubs acquiesced to more domestic spending.

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  9. Now, let’s do what’s necessary to deal with the debt and deficit.

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  10. Too late bro. After welfare what else do we reform aka defund with no money, of course NPR (a whopping .000014 % of the federal budget) will make a nice thing to publicly pick on to make the public hate you even more leading in to the midterms when I hope to witness an unprecedented slaughter of Republicans and conservatives because you are lumped in there with them in the minds of the wronged electorate.

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  11. look, I know plenty of them wanted it but Trump pushed them into passing as FUBARRed a bill as the ACA ever was. You'll pay for this and for a lot more he's arrogantly done, especially his nuclear proliferation. All this is doing is inducing our supposed enemies to do the same. We've been there/done all this.

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  12. You can do the statecraft now or do it later. Always the same after war. Of course it helps to bargain from a strong military and we have one. I would have voted to reject Mattis and make him stay out the requisite time after being in the military. Our founders and at least one President (IKE) were very wary of military power and influence over government. We run them, they don't run us and I like it that way. STFU and follow orders. From us!!

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  13. Your argument is not nearly as convincing as Ms Eaglen’s. Or that of the DNI threats report.

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  14. And your argument, my hawkish and heartless bloggie, a wolf of hate and vindication in the sheep's clothing of Christianity, is not nearly as convincing as Ike's:

    "Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies, in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and not clothed. This world in arms is not spending money alone. It is spending the sweat of its laborers, the genius of its scientists, the hopes of its children. This is not a way of life at all in any true sense. Under the cloud of threatening war, it is humanity hanging from a cross of iron."

    --Dwight D. Eisenhower, From a speech before the American Society of Newspaper Editors, April 16, 1953
    34th president of US 1953-1961 (1890 - 1969)

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2018/02/12/eisenhower-would-have-hated-trumps-military-parade-william-hitchcock-column/327377002/

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  15. "International relations cannot be held captive to military force, mutual intimidation, and the parading of stockpiles of arms," the pope continued. "Weapons of mass destruction, particularly nuclear weapons, create nothing but a false sense of security. They cannot constitute the basis for peaceful coexistence between members of the human family."

    https://www.ncronline.org/news/vatican/pope-condemns-possession-nuclear-weapons-shift-churchs-acceptance-deterrence

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  16. Until there are no more threats, we need them.

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  17. I don't believe that, especially as articulated by Trump, but it sure worked this time. Always a nice addition to the deficit. I know we need to cut social programs too so don't throw that up. We shall wait impatiently for the corporate world to enrich us all from their tax cuts.

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  18. Soumds like Netanyahu may be out. Good!

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  19. You're kind of all over the map here under a post about the DNI threats report and our military being underprepared to deal with them.

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