Saturday, May 16, 2020

Outside the sphere of the throne-sniffers, the VSG's support is not in good shape

This:

The conservative-leaning Rasmussen Reports poll released Thursday found that 23 percent of likely Republican voters across the country think that their party should "find someone other than Trump to be their nominee," according to the survey results.
The poll found that 70 percent said the Republican Party should stick with Trump, while 7 percent were undecided.
And aging boomers had been assumed to be his demographic stronghold. Not so fast:

Just a few weeks ago, the Pew Research Center announced that millennials overtook baby boomers as the largest generation in the country. More than 72 million strong, those born between 1981 and 1996 eclipsed their elders, a demographic reality that was inevitable. 
For the last decade, I have been one of the loudest voices preaching that Republicans are in trouble with this massive cohort of younger voters, that policy positions on both cultural and economic issues have increasingly put the GOP out of step with the millennial generation. Many of these trends have continued with the emergence of Generation Z, which tends to share many of the political views of its elder brothers and sisters, with a dash of heightened worry about climate change and emphasis on gender, racial, and gay and transgender equality. 
I am here to tell Republicans that while their struggle with younger voters still remains a critical long-term challenge, an even graver short-term threat has emerged: declining support among seniors. 
Despite double-digit losses among young voters over the last decade, Republicans have still maintained some electoral successes due to their support among older voters. The generation gap has cut both ways, with poor showings among the young being matched by strong showings among the old. And though millennials now outnumber boomers in raw numbers, older voters remain more likely to show up at the polls ( increases in youth participation in the last midterm elections notwithstanding).
And Biden's lead is the steadiest against an incumbent since 1944:

(CNN)Poll of the week: A new Monmouth University poll finds that former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump 50% to 41%. When Rep. Justin Amash is included as the Libertarian Party candidate, it's Biden 47%, Trump 40% and Amash 5%. 
The poll is largely in line with the average poll since April that puts Biden 6 points ahead of Trump nationally. 
What's the point: Biden's lead is about as steady as it can possibly be. Not only is he up 6 points over the last month or so, but the average of polls since the beginning of the year has him ahead by 6 points. Moreover, all the polls taken since the beginning of 2019 have him up 6 points. 
The steadiness in the polls is record breaking. Biden's advantage is the steadiest in a race with an incumbent running since at least 1944. That could mean it'll be harder to change the trajectory of the race going forward, though this remains more than close enough that either candidate could easily win.
Team VSG has some rethinking to do.




 


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