Wednesday, December 28, 2016

Hopefully, this is as much of a top priority for the new administration as repealing the "A"CA, overturning environmental regs and appointing good judges

The necessity of squarely addressing Iran's violations of the JCPOA will become apparent sooner, not later:

The real problem with the Iran deal—despite it being loose, porous, and temporary nature—is that the Iranian government itself has no intention to abide by it. Put aside questions about Iran’s ballistic missile work—Kerry arguably conceded that against the backdrop of last-minute Iranian brinkmanship—and the refusal of Iranian officials to allow inspections of military sites, a red line international inspectors have chosen not to test.
Iran’s overproduction of heavy water is a violation that has now occurred twice. The international community has allowed Iran to sidestep the violations by exporting its excess heavy water, even if that meant U.S. taxpayers were essentially subsidizing and rewarding Iran’s illegal nuclear activity.
Now, Behrouz Kamalvandi, the spokesman of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, has said Iran will reduce its exports of heavy water even though there is no evidence that Iran will stop producing such large amounts of heavy water. This is worrisome, of course, because heavy water reactors can produce plutonium as a byproduct. The Iranian argument that limitson heavy water are a suggestion and not mandatory will have no traction once Kerry departs the State Department.
This means that the first Iran crisis of the Trump presidency is looming. Iran will, once again, be in violation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. It will now be up to Trump to determine whether he will ignore or rationalize the violation despite his campaign rhetoric or take action. If he follows the process laid out by the agreement, Russia and perhaps China will defend Iran despite the blatancy of Tehran’s violation. That leaves Trump with a choice: stand down and lose face—an action which will do as much harm to U.S. credibility as Obama’s decision not to abide by his own red lines in Syria—or punish Iran unilaterally. If the Iranian press is to be believed, the Islamic Republic has now thrown down the gauntlet and started the countdown to what may be the first diplomatic crisis of the Trump administration.
It is helpful that the agreement isn't a legally binding treaty. The US Senate didn't ratify anything.


5 comments:

  1. Just so we reverse the policy of playing patty-cake with mortal enemies

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  2. The pendulum will swing back so hard and fast it's gonna shatter the casing. I suppose you welcome what's coming. And you know what you are calling for. You will spin the agony of war as sacrifice.

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  3. The swamp was drained, though Newtie said that too was mere campaign bluster. At the bottom were found the bottom feeders, inurred to the slime. We stew about bad players and evil empires and want to stave off their nuclear capabilities. Yet somehow a rich arrogant blowhard makes it to the top in our free land and we got a Caligula with his small fingers on the button.

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  4. It's been a long, long time since you have made any attempt at seriousness in these discussions. Iran's missile program continues apace, as does the heavy-water production discussed above. As do the pronouncements by the Supreme Ayatollah and the head of the Quds Force about America still being Iran's main enemy.

    It just blows my mind to see an unwillingness to look squarely at that.

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