Friday, October 30, 2015

Post-America has boots on the ground in both Syria and Iraq now

A frequent commenter here at LITD recently chimed in under a post about Iran saying that "the Middle East is not ours," and, when the observation was made that his position could be seen as giving a pass to the mullahs, said that if war were the answer to the region's ills, the W-era policy would have done the trick.

War per se, of course, is not a policy but an occasionally and unfortunately inevitable means by which a policy is pursued.

What Mideast policy - and foreign policy generally - should have as its first principle is consistency, and that consistency should be on behalf of national security. Of course, much emanates from that core tenet. It entails an understanding that the United States of America is - or maybe the operative term is "should be" - the most reliable preserver of Western civilization, and therefore must assure all Western nations (including Westernized Middle Eastern and East Asian nations) that it will not falter in so preserving. Then, driven by the best values distilled from the West's long history, the United States is in a position to recognize mischief by bad guys before it rises to the level of an actual threat.

In the case of Iran, for instance, that would have meant seeing that Shiite radicals were the most likely force to fill the power vacuum it we let Shah Reza Pahlavi fall in the late 1970s. And, yes, it would have meant, given that he did indeed fall and the radicals did indeed come to power, that there should have been no back-channel communications, and certainly not arms sales, to Iran in the mid-1980s. And that would have been the time to make damn sure an Iranian nuclear program never got off the ground. Move forward to the immediate aftermath of the September 2001 attacks and it would have meant bringing all available intelligence and propaganda resources available to bear in fomenting regime change in Iran. It was ripe for it at the time. (The last great opportunity was in June 2009.)

In the case of Syria, it would have meant treating the Assad regime as an unqualified enemy throughout the years. No dinners between Assad and then-Senator Global-Test. No patty-cake visits from Nancy Pelosi. No statements from Hillionaire about Assad being a force for stability. We therefore would have been exhibiting consistency when the Arab Spring occurred and post-America, under the Most Equal Comrade, switched to calling for Assad's ouster. Alas, we obliterated any hint of consistency when the MEC allowed Assad to cross the chemical-weapons red line.

Consistency driven by self-identification as the West's preserver would have meant being the ally to Israel that were were supposed to be, and never engaging in pointless conferences such as Oslo and never letting a terrorist like Arafat visit the White House.

Alas, post-American policy has been downright incoherent. The Most Equal Comrade has sworn that post-America would not be drawn back into combat in the Middle East, and now that's exactly where we are:

The U.S. will send a small number of U.S. special operations forces into Syria as part of a shift in its strategy against ISIS, officials said Friday. 
A senior administration official confirmed that President Barack Obama has authorized a contingent of less than 50 special operations forces to deploy into northern Syria. 
"We have been focused on intensifying elements of our strategy that have been working, while also moving away from elements of our approach that have proven less effective," the official explained. 
The White House was expected to announce the decision later Friday.
"Moving away from elements of our approach that have proven less effective." What a nice touch.


But, as has been the way post-America had done this sort of thing, the measures being taken are less than what is required for a decisive outcome (also known as victory):

Rep. Mac Thornberry, chair of the House Armed Services Committee, said the expected announcement made clear the White House was feeling the pressure of a "failed policy" against ISIS.
"I'm concerned that the administration is trying to put in place limited measures — too late — that are not going to make a difference," he told NBC News. "I don't see a strategy towards accomplishing a goal, I see an effort to run out the clock without disaster."
Obama and his administration have come under mounting pressure amid signs the anti-ISIS coalition has stalled or at least failed to turn the tide against the militants — including the recent Pentagon decision to abandon a failed program to train and equip Syrian rebels. 
Small signs of a sea change in strategy have been filtering out in recent weeks and gained steam in the wake of a U.S.-backed raid to free ISIS hostages that cost the life of a Delta Force commando. 
SecDef Ashton Carter is using the term "combat" to characterize what post-America is engaged in.

We also have troops on the ground once again in northern Iraq.

These are the fruits of a policy consisting of preening about an "international community" and "all sides tamping down the rhetoric" and "reset" and "getting a political process on track."

No, this doesn't make the MEC regime into a bunch of warmongers. It exposes them as being so in thrall to a fantasy vision of a world where conferences in Vienna, Geneva and Paris are worth a damn that they let Western civilization crumble in real time.




9 comments:

  1. Which plan would best defend our national interests in the Middle East? Without saying obviously supporting our true allies, beyond that the environment there is like shifting sand. Do you use an opposition to appeasement and place all strategy in standing like a Churchill against a common enemy to freedom. This presumes that the philosophy of the greater part of the Middle East wishes to and would be “westernized” by one effort or another. Over time maybe this strategy will prevail, as societies assimilate to a modern world. Now it does not, there are just deep divisions, and these houses divided will fall in time. It is wait and see, remain open in dialog, and unfortunately meet aggression as the Israelis’ have painfully learned with tenfold aggression. No external force has ever prevailed in history for any length of time in the Middle East.

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  2. You assign the nation's foreign policy team (intelligence, defense, diplomacy) the task of answering this question: What players in the Middle East clearly hate us and are actively working for the West's destruction? Once you have established who they are, the assignment moves to the next level: How do we most effectively deal with each one?

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    1. In agreement, “effective” is the key word and in the west we to are often divided as to, intelligence, military, and diplomacy strategy. Democracy is ugly but true, autocrats and regimes of dogma are quicker to affect their policies, which become the lasting results? Democracy is growth, all other governing policies operate from archaic principles and will eventually dissolve by pragmatic ineptitude.
      Identifying enemies clearly, the intelligence community works hard at this, and it is an uphill task. When we do identify an enemy dangerous to our national safety we should give them freedom to act decisively without hesitation or jeopardy by their actions. Not a drone precise attack but a subjugation of an enemy’s entire stronghold.

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    2. “Identifying enemies clearly, the intelligence community works hard at this, and it is an uphill task. When we do identify an enemy dangerous to our national safety we should give them freedom to act decisively without hesitation or jeopardy by their actions. Not a drone precise attack but a subjugation of an enemy’s entire stronghold.”
      I do not have the confidence in intelligence organizations to see the bigger the picture, their purpose seems first self-preservation then security. Leading to the inevitable “Blow Back”, gaining no value to security. Stop a little bomb which sadly kills a few in return for cultivating even more animosity. Where is the gain there?

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  3. Unless this is another lie, White House press secretary Josh Earnest said the president's decision Friday to send up to 50 special forces troops to Syria doesn't change the fundamental strategy: "This is an important thing for the American people to understand. These forces do not have a combat mission."

    So who's bull shitting? You or all the president's men? I thought your ilk wanted boots on the ground. Do you? I know you want to preempt all trouble and, if trouble comes, to blame others for it. Nay, rake them through the coals and attempt to destroy him or her you just know is responsible.

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  4. Reread the post. My point is that we would not be in this position if we'd consistently treated the Assad regime like an enemy over the past 40 years.

    And what we're doing is still inadequate. ISIS continues to metastasize by the day and will eventually incinerate Western cities - unless Iran defeats it and steps in to do that job.

    And, no, I don't trust Josh Earnest as far as I can throw my car - especially since Ash Carter is calling it combat.

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  5. Has anything ever been consistent in the last 40 years as to policies of the middle east? Lets go further back...Gertrude Bell... and other interventions.

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  6. Dang, I was going by your title. Hard to believe you fear mongers because of shall we call them errors, perhaps not strategic in your opinion, "suffered" by premptors in the past, at least according to my recollection. If it wasn't ISIS it would be something else.

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  7. Your ilk's thoughts on green money v. red American blood?

    The American promise of nearly $100 Mil cash, which it says brings to nearly $500 million the amount it has pledged to the opposition since 2012, came a day after the U.S. announced it was intensifying its fight against the Islamic State group in Syria with the deployment of up to 50 special operations troops.

    It also coincided with the completion of international talks in Vienna to pursue a new peace effort involving Syria's Iranian-backed government and opposition groups. The negotiations left open the thorny question of when Assad might leave power, and it was unclear whether he or disparate rebel groups fighting to topple him would sign on to any peace proposal.

    I know talk is cheap but:

    A new round of talks was expected to take place within two weeks.

    Read more at https://www.yahoo.com/news/saudi-fm-assads-future-among-sticking-points-syria-123612784.html

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