T
om Rogan at NRO on Putin's strategic reasoning:
n Monday, Russian forces bombed a humanitarian convoy in Syria. They destroyed 18 aid trucks and killed 20 civilians. But to understand why the Russians did so, you should first search “Putin pen” on YouTube. Watch the final 45 seconds and you’ll see two central tenets of Putin’s personality: first, his hard-edged sense of humor; second, his cultivation of varying images of himself. Putin wants some to view him as a tough-headed realist. He wants others to see him as a servant of the common man. And most important, he wants his adversaries to believe he is a leader who cannot be deterred from his destiny.
That cultivation of his image is exactly why Putin bombed this convoy. The Russians are denying that their aircraft were operating above Aleppo during the strike, but they know the U.S. government quickly figured out that they were responsible. After all, every time the Russians or Syrians launch jets, U.S. radar and intelligence assets carefully monitor them, warning U.S. forces of any deliberate Russian or Syrian air strike. The monitoring also provided valuable intelligence on where Russian military attention is focused. Regardless, Putin knows the U.S. employs these capabilities and that we would have been focused on Russia’s heavy air coverage of Aleppo. And that leads to the key takeaway: Putin just doesn’t care that he’s been caught. On the contrary, his strategy is actually served by his lack of concern.
The main message from Putin is that Assad is going to stay in power in Syria:
In destroying the humanitarian convoy, Putin has simply reinforced his longstanding message to the West. In many ways, it is pitch-perfect. An aid convoy is not off-limits, Putin is telling President Obama — which means that we should expect worse to come. In other words, unless the United States accepts keeping Bashar al-Assad in power, Putin will continue to burn Syria. And Assad — totally undeterred by the pathetic weakness of U.S. deterrent power — revels in this longstanding slaughter strategy. Russia might hint that this attack is retaliation for the accidental U.S. bombing of Syrian soldiers, but it wasn’t. Instead, it was pure Putin: deliberate and brutal application of force in the service of a long-term strategy.
Russia is publicly denying responsibility. We shall see if post-America will work to see that the world knows the truth. Don't hold your breath.
Our twice freely elected Commander in Chief will handle it through his West Point, USAFA and USNA and other qualified advisors so we really don't need your input nor your sarcasm, thank you.
ReplyDeleteOne would think after 8 years of the MEC getting so advised we'd have something in Syria other than a hell hole with millions streaming out - and into Europe and post-America - and postAmerica completely out of the picture re: shaping events there.
ReplyDeleteThe Syrians created their own mess. Why do we have to clean it up and incur criticism for our efforts?
ReplyDeleteThere's a strong argument to be made that we don't, except for the fact that the MEC / BleachBit / Global-Test have never had a coherent Syria policy, darting all over the place from G-T going over there and having dinner with Assad and BleachBit calling him a force for stability to theMEC's red line to MEC's "Assad-must-go" assertion. Also rather tepidly responding to the ISIS threat. Also appeasing Assad's main backer Iran. And so here we are.
ReplyDeleteSorry about that. Elect a consistent hawk then.
ReplyDeleteYou think you like intransigence and war dontcha?
ReplyDelete“Supposedly we all want the same goal. I’ve heard that again and again,” a visibly angry Kerry told the council. “Everybody sits there and says we want a united Syria, secular, respecting the rights of all people, in which the people of Syria can choose their leadership. But we are proving woefully inadequate in our ability to be able to get to the table and have that conversation and make it happen.”
ReplyDeleteHey, I held my breath.
ReplyDelete“This is not a joke,” Kerry exclaimed, urging all to stop the “word games that duck responsibility or avoid the choices ... with respect to war and peace, life and death.” His pleas crossed paths with another statement by Russia’s government, this time suggesting a U.S. coalition Predator drone was operating nearby when the convoy attack occurred. The Pentagon said no drone was in the area at the time.
It was one of Kerry’s most bitter exchanges with Moscow as secretary of state, laced with invective and outrage.
So much for the latest "agreement," much less Madame BleachBit's "reset."
ReplyDelete