Saturday, October 1, 2022

We have to meet the noon train - thoughts on the latest Ukraine developments

 The radar screen of the average American citizen is a cacophonous thing. That's partly due to the round-the-clock nature of the modern news cycle. I'd wager, though, that deeper factors are at work.

Because information of a serious nature comes through the same screens that bring us the surfeit of distraction that perpetuates the outsized role amusement has in our lives, our capacity to prioritize various forms of screen content is diminished. We're ever more easily bored as well.

That's why, with Queen Elizabeth's passing, two major hurricanes, extravagant federal executive-branch promises to absolve us from our obligations, MAGA world antics, the commencing of the college and professional football seasons, and inflation's ravaging of our paychecks, it's understandable that Ukraine often gets moved off the front burner.

This is no time to be doing that. Russia's aggression toward Ukraine has brought us to an existential juncture.

Through nothing but brute force, Russia has, at least for the moment, changed the map of Europe:

Putin formally inked decrees declaring Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia to be Russian territory following a series of sham referendums.

The ruthless land grab was made official at the Georgievsky Hall of the Great Kremlin Palace in a signing ceremony.

NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg said the move "represents the most serious escalation since the start of the war" while the US said it would continue to provide Ukraine with more equipment.

Meanwhile, the US called for an emergency UN Security Council meeting where it's expected they'll announce a fresh wave of sanctions on Russia.

Toward the end of this week, Ukraine has announced that it will pursue an accelerated route to NATO membership. This is quite the tipping point, is it not? Earlier in this war, all parties kind of concurred that such a move was a ways off. Bringing Finland and Sweden into the fold made more sense, it was thought. 

But with the latest land grab, Kyiv no doubt felt the timeline had to be viewed differently.

Ukraine's application for NATO membership is no less fraught with danger than it's ever been. In fact, it's already been responded to with the starkest ultimatum of all:

Dmitry Medvedev, the Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council, believes that Ukraine's accession to NATO will accelerate the outbreak of World War III.

SourceMedvedev, on Telegram

Quote: "Zelensky wants to join NATO as soon as possible. Great idea. Just begging the North Atlantic alliance to speed up the start of World War III."

Those inhabiting points along the spectrum of appeasement  advocating for a negotiated settlement - a spectrum that includes Trumpist yay-hoos as well as the elder statesman of the Realist school of foreign policy, Henry Kissinger -  probably feel that their position is bolstered. The stakes are now even higher than when they first began pronouncing in favor of appeasement. 

Wherever each of them is coming from, they tend to attempt persuasion with moral arguments - the continued high death counts on each side, the irreversibility of a decision to go to the nuclear level - but the fact is that theirs is an appallingly amoral position. 

Setting a precedent on the world stage that permits elbow room for evil is a dereliction of our highest duty. It's why the train scene in High Noon stirs us. It's why, when we encounter the C.S. Lewis quote informing us that “It is not your business to succeed, but to do right; when you have done so, the rest lies with God,” we react with discomfort but know he's right.

We - and here I mean the entire West - must insist that the only acceptable resolution to this horrific situation is a full restoration of Ukraine's pre-2014 borders.

Putin may mock the notion of a rules-based order as an arbitrary invention meant to justify hegemonic behavior, but he's wrong. Most of the world knows it. That order is what has made to possible to bring force to bear when some entity exhibits real hegemonic behavior.

There will continue to be much on our plate, but it's essential that we grasp the gravity of the moment.

History is going to compel us to do hard things.



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