North Korea: so far, no patty-cake

Well.

It's certainly been an interesting month for North Korea's interactions with the US and the world, hasn't it? South Korean president Moon says that the North assured him that its goal is denuclearization without preconditions. Kim goes on his first visit to a foreign country (China) as leader, takes his wife who joins him for a state banquet and a visit to the Academy of Sciences, meets secretly with Mike Pompeo over Easter weekend, and says it aims to end the official state of war with South Korea that has existed since 1950.

There are two possibilities here, broadly speaking.

Let's dispense with the least likely one, namely, that Kim has figured out that history will view him far more favorably if he brings his nation into the modern world,  drops the threatening posture, and begins to exude reasonability.

Given his, and his regime's, track record from the late 1940s to a few weeks ago, it's far more likely that he and his party leaders and generals are engaged in a giant ruse:

the potential trouble ahead is that this is the meeting that the Kim dynasty has always wanted and has been “gaming out” for many years. Pyongyang’s playbook is now well-known: draw out negotiations for as long as possible while demanding a peace treaty and other concessions, recognition as a nuclear state and the normalization of relations with the United States. Until recently, North Korean’s chastened patrons — the Chinese — went along with the Trump campaign of pressure against Kim, themselves fearing that Trump was capable of anything.

But now the Chinese will support any negotiations that may break the United States’ alliance with South Korea. Kim and China’s leader, Xi Jinping, find themselves in alignment once again in seeking to remove U.S. troops from the Korean peninsula and gradually “de-couple” Seoul and Washington. As it does this, North Korea and China will aim to isolate Japan as the last remaining place in the Asia-Pacific where U.S. troops are permanently stationed. Kim and Xi know exactly what they want and will use these negotiations as a platform to achieve these goals.

What th US has to do is take the North Korean posture at its face value and hold them to what they're saying:

Team USA is going up against a regime that has been on a roll in outwitting the United States across many administrations, and that is supported by a China that wants the United States out of Asia. The key to success is to push for immediate denuclearization while preparing for a long-term parallel strategy of coercive diplomacy against North Korea and continued pushback against Chinese moves to break U.S. alliances in Asia.

However, if the North succeeds in drawing out the talks with promises of future denuclearization, engaging Washington in endless fights about verification or demands for concessions without any immediate actions in return, Washington will have lost important time that otherwise could have been spent strengthening the coalition of pressure.

Now, consider the state of limbo in which Pompeo is currently operating. He is exactly the kind of guy to have the meeting with Kim that he had at the beginning of this month, but North Korea will be keep a close eye on whether his situation is solid or precarious - that is, whether the US Congress grants him its imprimatur for becoming Secretary of State:

Frankly, the cause of the Trump-Tillerson friction makes no difference. All that matters is that it was there, and everyone knew about it. By sending Pompeo to North Korea to negotiate on his behalf, Trump has sent exactly the opposite message about Pompeo to the world. Pompeo is the president’s guy, the man he sent to negotiate with the Hermit Kingdom. Don’t mess with him, unless you’re willing to mess with Trump.

Fifteen Senate Democrats voted to confirm Pompeo to his current job as CIA director. Clearly, they thought he had the temperament, character, experience and smarts to do that job. Some, clearly under pressure from their left-wing bases, have backed off those votes, using weasel words to explain why they are now planning to flip flop and cast votes against his confirmation as secretary of State. That was before the news of Pompeo’s visit to North Korea. This changes the calculus.

Will Claire McCaskill cater to her liberal base in Missouri and leave herself forced to defend an action that can reasonably be said to have led to the collapse of talks with North Korea? What about Joe Donnelly in Indiana, Tim Kaine in Virginia, Angus King in Maine, Amy Klobuchar in Minnesota and Joe Manchin in West Virginia, each of whom voted to confirm Pompeo to his current position, and all of whom are on the ballot in November? The campaign ads write themselves. I, for one, cannot wait.

We know of one Senate Dem, Heidi Heidtkamp of North Dakota, who sees the stakes here.

There are some oddball thumbs-down positions being taken on the Pub side.

All in all, though, it looks like he has the votes.

This spring is going to call for steely resolve on the part of the US like it hasn't mustered for some time. North Korea (and China) are going to look for any and all signs of blinking.