Friday, November 3, 2017

The GOP tax plan: long on wonkery and attempts to please particular groups, short on being driven by the basic principle of freedom

I'm pretty much in the camp of Erick Erickson at The Resurgent in it:

 It is not very bold. I was really expecting more. Yes, I was expecting more even from this group of Republicans. I’d like to say I support it. I very much like the framework the House GOP released and I think even this heads in the right direction. But my initial impression is it kinda sucks and, to be honest, I was going to write here that I still think it should pass despite thinking it kinda sucks. Then I read this. It makes me wonder what else is in the legislation. And, honestly, I hate the idea of this “bubble tax.” So while I’d like to support it and intended to support it here, the article on the “bubble tax” makes me think I need to wait and see what other fine points are in the legislation. Let’s face it, a plan may be great, but the legislation is what matters.
The legislation does not dramatically simplify the tax code. In fact, in some areas it complicates it. It does not boldly shake up tax dynamics in the country. It pulls punches, so to speak, leaving a lot on the table. I think people need to understand that this actually has far less to do with House Republicans and far more to do with Senate Republicans. The House GOP had to pass legislation that can get 50 Senators to support it. The Senate GOP talks a good game, but too few of them really care to help fix our failing tax system.

The linked "this" to which he refers is this Politico article . The "bubble" (Hey, I have a suggestion. Any legislation that involves codification of goofy terms like "tax bubble" ought to be deemed way too convoluted from the get-go. What say?) is an attempt to pursue the aim of deficit reduction while offering advantages to middle-class taxpayers:

Thanks to a quirky proposed surcharge, Americans who earn more than $1 million in taxable income would trigger an extra 6 percent tax on the next $200,000 they earn—a complicated change that effectively creates a new, unannounced tax bracket of 45.6 percent.

It hasn’t been advertised by Republicans, who have described their plan as maintaining the current top tax rate of 39.6 percent. And it goes against decades of GOP orthodoxy that raising taxes on the rich discourages work and reduces economic growth. Reached by phone, Steve Moore, a tax expert at The Heritage Foundation, said the surcharge was news to him. “I was just in a briefing with the White House on this,” he said. “They didn’t mention that. It seems kind of bizarre to me.”

The new rate stems from a provision in the bill intended to help the government recover, from the very wealthy, some of the benefits that lower-income taxpayers enjoy. Under the House GOP plan, all individuals—no matter whether they earn $35,000, $150,000 or $10 million—would pay the lowest rate, 12 percent, on their first $45,000 in taxable income. That’s a normal feature of current American tax law. But in the new plan, House Republicans want to claw back some of that benefit for individuals who earn more than $1 million, or couples earning more than $1.2 million.

Here’s how it would work: After the first $1 million in taxable income, the government would impose a 6 percent surcharge on every dollar earned, until it made up for the tax benefits that the rich receive from the low tax rate on that first $45,000. That surcharge remains until the government has clawed back the full $12,420, which would occur at about $1.2 million in taxable income. At that point, the surcharge disappears and the top tax rate drops back to 39.6 percent. This type of tax is sometimes called a “bubble tax,” because the marginal tax rate effectively bubbles up for a brief period before falling back to a lower level.

According to POLITICO’s calculation, the surcharge could raise more than $50 billion over a decade—money that will help the GOP meet the $1.5 trillion in deficit reduction and required to balance out tax cuts elsewhere. Balancing out those costs means that the bill can pass through budget reconciliation, and Senate Democrats can’t filibuster the bill.

Such sleight-of-hand measures are "necessary" because  no one inside the Beltway, and far too few out in the rest of post-America, are willing to squarely face the glaring fact that annual deficits, as well as the $20 trillion debt, are due to a view of government at odds with the Madisonian vision that held sway until the advent of the Progressives. And the nation is in denial that the main manifestation of unsustainable overreach is the big "entitlements." They remain third rails.

The truly conservative way to deal with tax and budget policy would have a two-fold effect: It would let people keep all of what is theirs save for what's necessary for government to fulfill its basic Constitutional functions, and it would steer the public's thinking away from a view that government ought to be in the business of addressing the universal conditions of human life - namely, that people get sick and grow old.

And now I shall run the risk of coming across as a crank by mentioning the idea that we could go back to a pre-1913 way of raising government revenue. You know, letting people keep the entirety of money that they make.

In any event, like so much that Capitol Hill Pubs want us to get excited about, this plan is underwhelming.

25 comments:

  1. There is really no shortfall for Old Age & Survivors Insurance funds. Congress needs to pay those funds we paid in back. End of conundrum.

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  2. Actually the surplus was invested in government bonds which must pay back the principle plus interest. They still must. In this regard we need to be wary of the government's ability to repay, given the increasing deficit. Only 2 ways to reduce the deficit; decrease spending and/or increase taxes. Simple as 1 plus 2.

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  3. Yeah, by golly! Congress needs to pay it back!

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  4. Ronnie said it would be there for us, chump change that it is.

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  5. Spending borrowed money to pay for the wars has also made them more expensive, the study noted. The conflicts have added $2 trillion to America’s debt, representing roughly 20 percent of the debt incurred between 2001 and 2012. It’s unclear how long Washington will keep paying bills for that conflict (Iraq), which dragged on for nearly a decade and became deeply unpopular at home and in Iraq. Judging from history, it could take quite awhile. The Associated Press recently found that the federal government is still cutting checks each month to relatives of Civil War veterans nearly 150 years after the end of that war.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/study-iraq-afghan-war-costs-to-top-4-trillion/2013/03/28/b82a5dce-97ed-11e2-814b-063623d80a60_story.html?utm_term=.bd24e6a8590c

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  6. So what will save us for your freedom forever is defaulting on the bonds and of course interest and then you will be happy to return to our pre-tax world. A Final Solution to simply gas a percentage of the unproductive populace might be considered, but wars for freedom will free us, right?

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  7. You could dismantle the entire Departments of Defense and Veterans' Affairs and it would not make a meaningful dent in the unfunded liabilities of the "entitlements."

    I guess there's nothing wrong with someone in your position doing a little venting with the Final Solution of gassing unproductive people, but it, as I'm sure you know in a moment of greater clarity, doesn't productively move the conversation forward.

    What's needed is what this post says. Get government back to the role conceived for it in the 1780s, and leave the rest of individual and societal issues to individuals, private organizations, and, in certain instances, municipalities and states.

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  8. Stare decisis, the time machine gotta stand on stare decisis, but dream on, little dreamer, dream on about all that. Get real: cut spending and increase taxes. But the OASI funds are owed back.

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  9. There are no unfunded OASI liabilities, only unreimbursed funds.

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  10. Cut spending, yes. Increase taxes, no. "Unreimbursed funds." That's a good one.

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  11. You don't remember your Ronnie saving Social Security for the great unwashed? He made a pretty big deal out of it. For the rubes and bumpkins of course.

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  12. We can talk about the moral obligation of Reagan, FDR, or anyone else to make good on what they said about it all day long, but it doesn't amount to diddly. The money is not there. No amount of cutting anywhere else in the government, and no amount of taxation is going to generate enough to make them solvent.

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  13. The point is OASI is solvent and has a huge surplus, if only it gets paid back. It is not broke which, other than on principle whim doesn't mean diddly when staring down stare decisis. OASI is a very done deal and is not expendable. I know you are gleeful that it's not being paid back but it will and must survive.

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  14. "If only it gets paid back."

    Out of what?

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  15. You won't want to save it. You want a big bust of it anyhow. Why? I guess it's principles. Cut spending, increase income. And pay back the debt.

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  16. What indication have I ever given that I want a big bust? I'm merely stating facts.

    "Pay back the debt." For the twenty trillionth (you're getting the pun here, I assume) time I've asked this - out of what?

    Here's a question for you? Why do you act like this is a real concern of yours when you have no serious suggestions, let alone fleshed-out proposals, for addressing it?

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  17. Is it my job to flesh out proposals for reducing the deficit?

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  18. It's your job to propose ways to ensure the viability of Social Security and Medicare, since you profess to regard them as sacrosanct.

    Remember, increased taxation is off the table for both moral and mathematical reasons.

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  19. Cut spending, increase income. I see no moral and mathematical reasons for taking increased tax income off the table. How so?

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  20. And I elect representatives to do this for me. I got to make income and pay taxes out of what I chose to do, my specialty, if you will. No time left to do what others get paid to do for me.

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  21. Forcibly taking any money from citizens must undergo the most rigorous justification of anything our government does, and forcibly taking it in order to rectify the irresponsible budgeting behavior of seventy years' worth of Congresses (those elected representatives you allude to) does not fit the bill.

    The mathematical reason is given a few comments up in this thread: No amount of cutting anywhere else in the government, and no amount of taxation is going to generate enough to make the entitlements solvent.

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  22. Whatever you say. But I think you're nuts.

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  23. Policy Basics: Understanding the Social Security Trust Funds







    Few budgetary concepts generate as much unintended confusion and deliberate misinformation as the Social Security trust funds. Despite being described by some as “funny money,” or “IOUs,” the Social Security trust funds are invested in Treasury securities that are just as sound as the U.S. government securities held by investors around the globe; investors regard those securities as being among the world’s safest investments. Although Social Security has a long-term financial shortfall that must be closed, the program’s combined trust funds will not be depleted until around 2034, which gives policymakers time to develop a carefully crafted solvency plan.

    https://www.cbpp.org/research/social-security/policy-basics-understanding-the-social-security-trust-funds

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  24. 2034 is only 17 years away. These policy makers had better get with it.

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