The continuing shift in Middle Eastern dynamics

Saudi Arabia is front and center among the players of interest at the moment. The crown prince is shaking things up in un precedented ways, and seems unconstrained by family ties:

Saudi Arabia’s future king has tightened his grip on power through an anti-corruption purge by arresting royals, ministers and investors including billionaire Alwaleed bin Talal who is one of the kingdom’s most prominent businessmen.

Prince Alwaleed, a nephew of the king and owner of investment firm Kingdom Holding 4280.SE, invests in firms such as Citigroup (C.N) and Twitter (TWTR.N). He was among 11 princes, four ministers and tens of former ministers detained, three senior officials told Reuters on Sunday. 

The purge against the kingdom’s political and business elite also targeted the head of the National Guard Prince Miteb bin Abdullah who was detained and replaced as minister of the powerful National Guard by Prince Khaled bin Ayyaf. 

News of the purge came early on Sunday after King Salman decreed the creation of an anti-corruption committee chaired by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, his 32-year-old favorite son who has amassed power since rising from obscurity three years ago.

A particularly jarring cultural shift is in the works as well. As of next June, Saudi women will have the right to drive automobiles.


Then there's the ballistic missile intercepted over Riyadh.  The Houthis, which at one time might have been properly called a Yemeni rebel group, but which now control the portion of Yemen that includes the capital Sanaa, have forthrightly claimed responsibility:

"We previously warned that capitals of countries attacking Yemen will not be safe from our ballistic missiles," Houthi spokesman Mohammed AbdulSalam said. "Today's missile attack comes in response to Saudi killing innocent Yemeni civilians."

The Houthis like to downplay ties to Iran, but there is proof that such ties exist and are deadly:

Iran is sending advanced weapons and military advisers to Yemen’s rebel Houthi movement, stepping up support for its Shi‘ite ally in a civil war whose outcome could sway the balance of power in the Middle East, regional and Western sources say.

Iran’s enemy Saudi Arabia is leading a Sunni Arab coalition fighting the Houthis in the impoverished state on the tip of the Arabian peninsula - part of the same regional power struggle that is fuelling the war in Syria. 

Sources with knowledge of the military movements, who declined to be identified, said that in recent months Iran has taken a greater role in the two-year-old conflict by stepping up arms supplies and other support. This mirrors the strategy it has used to support its Lebanese ally Hezbollah in Syria. 

Lebanese prime minister Saad al-Hariri, who comes from a prominent family in that country's politics (his father was assassinated via a bombing), is stepping down to avoid being a casualty in Iranian proxy activity:

Lebanon’s Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri resigned on Saturday, saying he believed there was an assassination plot against him and accusing Iran and its Lebanese ally Hezbollah of sowing strife in the Arab world.

His resignation, a big surprise to Beirut’s political establishment, brought down the coalition government and plunged Lebanon into a new political crisis. 

It thrust Lebanon into the front line of a regional competition between Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shi‘ite Iran that has also buffeted Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Bahrain. A Saudi government minister said Hariri was in Riyadh to ensure his safety. 

Hariri, who is closely allied with Saudi Arabia, alleged in a broadcast from an undisclosed location that Hezbollah was “directing weapons” at Yemenis, Syrians and Lebanese.

And US policy in Iraq has not adequately considered the marginalization of the Kurds, the world's biggest ethnic group without its own nation-state, and how it serves Iran's hegemonic aims in its neighboring country:

The success of Trump’s strategy for containing Iran now depends entirely on an Iraqi government and military that is closely allied with Iran. In a day, the same Iraqi government that already sent forces to fight for Assad can close the Fishkhabour crossing and thus facilitate Assad’s victory against the most substantial portion of Syrian territory not under his control. The Kurdistan Region in Iraq—much diminished in territory and economic resources, and no longer in control of its borders—does not now have the capacity to counter Baghdad or Tehran. If the US objects to Iraq’s pro-Iran policies, the Iraqis always have the option of asking the US to leave. But that is not in Iran’s interest right now. Speaking as an American, the ousted governor of Kirkuk Najmaldin Karim observed: “The US has already spent trillions to accomplish Iran’s objectives in Iraq. As long as we keep doing it, why would Iran want us to leave?”

So it seems that a Saudi Arabia that sees the benefit of loosening its internal strictures and looking beyond its oil for opportunities for long-term business viability, is one pole of the region's balance of power, and Iran, which remains bent on subjugating as much of the Middle East as possible, so as to rid it of anything even faintly smacking of Western influence, is the other.

These motivations should be at the forefront of US strategic thinking. The second pole mentioned above is fiercely determined to impose its dehumanizing ideology wherever it can. That should give America a strong indication as to what kinds of signs of encouragement to particular players in the region are going to further its interests.