Wednesday, November 4, 2020

The likeliest scenario is probably the best one given the times we live in

 As of now (mid-afternoon on Wednesday, November 4), it appears that all this will shake out thusly: Joe Biden will hobble over the finish line with the thinnest of margins, the Senate will remain in Republican hands, and a newly energized GOP minority in the House will be a force the hard left, as represented in that body, has to reckon with.

One or more elements of this scenario could change, even yet today. That doesn't seem likely, though. 

Both Trumpists and hard leftists are trying hard to buck this picture. Of course they are. It disempowers each phenomenon. Each wants to see the other resolutely and permanently vanquished, relegated to historical-footnote status, so that an era in which a grand vision for our land can prevail and the messiness of disparate ambitions coming together in some form of self-governance is resolved once and for all. 

Trumpists see nothing wrong with Trump's nakedly authoritarian 2:30 AM unsubstantiated "in-fact-I-did-win / this-is-a-fraud" outburst in the White House East Room. They have responded with a hell-yeah concurrence, claiming that there's something nefarious about seeing that every ballot is counted. They are, as has been increasingly the case with Trumpist battle cries, persuading no one outside their ranks, however. Not only did anchors for CNN, ABC, CBS, Fox and NBC immediately denounce his remarks, they came in for rebuke from the likes of Ben Shapiro and Chris Christie and Rick Santorum, who have for some time found aspects of Trump's presidency appealing. 

Leftists immediately went into identity-politics mode, even as voter data showed that minorities did not neatly fit their expectations:

Pro-Democrat (or anti-Republican) partisans are already convincing themselves that the party’s stumbles on Tuesday are attributable to “whiteness”—even when the voters they lost weren’t white. Architect of the Pulitzer Prize-winning “1619 Project,” Nikole Hannah-Jones immediately went about explaining away Donald Trump’s surprisingly strong showing in places like Miami-Dade County by attributing the victory to “white Cubans,” who are “Hispanic” only insofar as that is a “contrived ethnic category.” Influential former ESPN host Jemele Hillinsisted that it is “on white people” and “no one else” if Trump had won. “I don’t trust the White vote,” former RNC Chair Michael Steele told Washington Post columnist Jonathan Capehart. “And I don’t trust it because, at the end of the day, it is very self-serving.”

No matter that weighted exit polling data found that Donald Trump increased his margins among minorities, drawing the support of 32 percent of Hispanics and double-digits among black voters, and Democrats improved their showing among whites. This isn’t analysis; it’s the avoidance of analysis.

So there are neither enough Trumpists within Republican ranks nor Squad-types among the Democrats for the kind of final vanquishing of the other each dreams of. No Big Vision is going to get imposed on the country by next spring:

Progressives can say goodbye to their already tenuous hopes for dramatic reforms to the institutions that govern American political life. There will be no filibuster nuking, no punitive expansion of the federal judiciary, no sweeping institutional reforms to “restructure things to fit our vision.” Nor will there be transformative legislative reforms without a Republican buy-in. Say goodbye to the Green New Deal, a Universal Basic Income, “debt-free” college, single-payer health care, the dissolution of the Department of Homeland Security’s border enforcement agencies, or half a dozen other big ideas that loomed ominously over American heads for the better part of two years.

However, the leftist vision won't have died, and neither will the Trumpist impulse on the Right

Final results that fall short of a massive rejection of Trump, as seems likely, would fail to trigger the repudiation of Trumpism in the Republican Party that many Democrats — and a minority of Republicans — had hoped for. As John Harris argues, whatever the final numbers, Trump’s appeal to half the country has proven to be durable. Even a narrow Biden victory would generate a larger debate about Trump’s harm to Republicans, but the full-scale de-Trumpification of the GOP required a landslide.

And the fact that Trumpism isn't even going to fade away, much less be stomped out of existence, doesn't speak well about what we as a nation have become:

This—the authoritarian strongman—is what the American people want. Not all of the people. Not quite a majority of the people. But a large enough percentage to put our country at risk of Orbánism.

Nearly half of America chose this. Not once, but twice.

But if the scenario of a Democrat president without a mandate and a Republican Senate plays out, we have at least two years in which actual conservatives, those who never quit understanding that free-market economics is the natural way human beings interact (and has been responsible for the advancement of our species over the last 300 years),  that Western civilization has been a unique blessing to humankind, and that it's imperative for our nation to form strong alliances with other countries that share at least a preponderance of our values and interests (and for such alliances to serve notice to hostile forces that they'd best not pose threats), to convince ever more of their fellow citizens of the clarity and elegance of what would work if we ever cared to try it.

 


1 comment:

  1. With over 300 Electoral College votes and a plurality over 4 million American voters...sounds like you might want to break out the Merriams and look up "mandate" again.

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