North Korea proves impervious to the VSG's attempts at patty-cake

 Kim - who, by the way, proved once again that speculation stemming from his occasional absences from the spotlight that he might have been incapacitated or died is off the mark - may write beautiful letters to buffoons in order to stroke their egos and buy time, but made unequivocally clear that the real agenda has nothing to do with summits, letters and other place-holding gestures, but rather this kind of thing:

North Korea unveiled what analysts believe to be one of the world's largest ballistic missiles at a military parade celebrating the 75th anniversary of the Workers' Party broadcast on state-run television on Saturday.

The massive weapon was carried by an 11-axle truck at the climax of the almost two-hour ceremony and military parade in the capital of Pyongyang.

Analysts said the new missile is not known to have been tested, but a bigger weapon would allow North Korea to put multiple warheads on it, increasing the threat it would pose to any targeted foe.

"Largest *road-mobile* liquid-fueled missile anywhere, to be clear," tweeted Ankit Panda, senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

"Liquid fuel, Huuuuge, capable of carrying MIRV nuclear warheads," tweeted Melissa Hanham, deputy director of Open Nuclear Network at Stanford University.

"What North Korea has shown us, what appears to be a new liquid-fueled ICBM that seems to be a derivative of what was tested back in late 2017, known as the Hwasong-15, is much bigger and clearly more powerful than anything in the DPRK's arsenal," said Harry Kazianis, senior director of Korean studies at the Washington DC-based Center for the National Interest.

North Korea can now hit North America with multiple warheads in one strike.

And the Supreme Leader was one proud tyrant:

Speaking before the tanks and missiles rolled by, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un touted his country's military and said it was there to defend the people.

"We will continue to strengthen war deterrence as a means of self-defense," Kim said. 

"Our war deterrence will never be abused or used preemptively, which will contribute to protecting the sovereignty and survival of the country and pursuing regional peace," he said.

"However, if anyone hurts the national safety or threaten to use military force against us, I will preemptively mobilize all of our strongest offensive forces to punish them," Kim said.

And it appears that the hermit kingdom understands that its stooge in the White House may be an ephemeral partner in patty cake. No matter; summits and letters were merely the tactic that worked best over the last four years. NK was willing to bide its time during the Agreed Framework, the Six-Way Talks and the era of strategic patience. None of it has any effect on the long-term pursuit of the Kim dynasty's aims. 

The Very Stable Genius may have warm dinner conversations with Xi Xinping, but that doesn't make China our friend

In fact, he may be jumping the gun on the notion that trade comity is blossoming:

President Trump’s much-ballyhooed trade agreement with China is looking less like a done deal and more like a work in process. Statements by Chinese officials indicate that Trump’s announcement of a deal was premature and there are concerns that the president’s jumping the gun may endanger the entire agreement.

In a series of tweets on Dec. 2, Trump said that China had agreed to “reduce and remove” their 40 percent tariff on American auto imports and start purchasing American agricultural products “immediately.” Before the trade war, Chinese tariffs on foreign autos were 25 percent. Since the trade dispute began, China has increased tariffs on American cars to 40 percent while reducing imports from other countries to 15 percent.

The lack of confirmation from the Chinese combined with Trump’s history of prematurely claiming success in international deals led many observers to be skeptical about Trump’s claims. Those doubts fueled an 800-point drop in the stock market on Tuesday after a 600-point rally on Monday.

Now statements by Chinese officials are confirming that the deal with the Trump Administration was merely an agreement to start negotiations. The Wall Street Journal reported this morning that China’s Commerce Ministry confirmed in a statement that the nation has agreed to a 90-day negotiating period in which both sides will stop increasing tariffs. The statement said that the negotiations had a “clear timeline and road map” and confirmed that “the Chinese side will start implementing the specific items both sides have agreed on, and the sooner the better.”
How much is already agreed upon was left unclear, but the Journal notes that Chinese government agencies and the nation’s supreme court announced tough penalties for violation of intellectual property rights. Infringement on intellectual property has been a major complaint of the Trump Administration. The new rules were dated Nov. 21, but were only made public yesterday.

On the other hand, the statement by the Commerce Ministry did not mention purchases of agricultural products or reducing auto tariffs. Some Chinese officials did suggest that their country may increase purchases of products such as soybeans and natural gas, which are in high demand in China. They did not specify amounts, however, and there was no indication of whether the tariffs would be reduced. 

There are two schools of thought as to whether the VSG style of China engagement is 5-D chess or just clueless clumsiness:

“It’s funny how far the administration has gotten on bravado and uncertainty — the ‘crazy uncle’ strategy with almost no organization, no whole-of-government approach, insufficient preparation and no talking points,” Scott Kennedy, a China expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said in the Washington Post. “The strategy has thrown the fear of Marx into the Chinese. They have been knocked off their seats.”

Others point out that there are inherent risks in Trump’s approach. Michael Pillsbury, a former Pentagon official who Trump called “probably the leading authority on China,” told Axios that he was “getting warnings from knowledgeable Chinese about the American claims of concessions” that were never agreed upon by the Chinese. These include Trump’s claims about the immediate purchase of American agricultural products and Chinese tariff reductions.

Then there's this development:

The chief financial officer of China’s Huawei Technologies faces extradition to the United States after she was arrested in Canada, Canadian officials said Wednesday.
Meng Wanzhou, a senior executive who is also the daughter of the tech giant’s founder, Ren Zhengfei, was arrested in Vancouver on Dec. 1, according to Canada’s Department of Justice.

A bail hearing has been set for Friday. The department declined to provide other details, citing a publication ban. U.S. Justice Department spokesman Marc Raimondi declined to comment on the matter.

A spokesman from the Chinese Embassy in Canada confirmed the arrest of Meng and said in a statement that Beijing “strongly protests over such kind of actions which seriously harmed the human rights of the victim.” China has lodged a protest to the United States and Canada, urging them “to immediately correct the wrongdoing,” the spokesman said. 

Meng was arrested when she was transferring flights in Canada, said Huawei spokesman Chasen Skinner.

“The company has been provided very little information regarding the charges and is not aware of any wrongdoing by Ms. Meng,” Skinner said. “The company believes the Canadian and U.S. legal systems will ultimately reach a just conclusion.”

Meng is expected to face charges in the Eastern District of New York in Brooklyn.
U.S. authorities have been investigating Huawei since 2016 for violations of export controls and U.S. sanctions related to Iran and other countries. It is unclear how Huawei might have violated sanctions. 

The arrest comes at a tense moment in U.S.-China relations. Over the past year, China and the United States have engaged in a tit-for-tat trade war that has shaken markets around the world and hurt ties between the world’s two largest economies.
President Trump last week met with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Group of 20 summit in Argentina, hashing out a trade war cease-fire. But just days after they met, Chinese and U.S. officials relayed conflicting details about the deal.

At the heart of the dispute is a White House claim that China violates the rules of global trade through forced technology transfer and cyberwarfare. There have been growing calls for the United States to increase its scrutiny of Chinese firms, including Huawei, on the grounds of national security.

U.S. officials have long suspected that Huawei, a major smartphone maker, maintains ties to China’s communist leaders. Ren, Huawei’s founder, is a former officer in China’s People’s Liberation Army.

I didn't like it when the Most Equal Comrade, Madame Bleachbit, Secretary Global-Test and Wendy Sherman engaged in appeasement, and I don't like it when the VSG does it either.

And it's starting to look like fruitless appeasement on  another front as well:

North Korea has reportedly expanded a long-range missile base within its mountainous interior, despite a promise from Donald Trump the country was “no longer a threat”.

Satellite images obtained by CNN allegedly show Pyongyang has continued to maintain and update its Yeongjeo-dong missile base and another site nearby.

US officials have long known about the Yeongjeo-dong base, but images show construction on a new facility seven miles away not previously made public, the US news channel reported.

We already knew about the Yeongjeo-dong base (and probably the “new” one as well, but the government doesn’t show all of its cards in such matters), but this expansion of the nearby base is more disturbing. North Korea made a big show of blowing up one of its underground bases after Trump and Kim first started talking, but now it appears that they’ve been building another massive, underground complex at the same time.

It seems to me that if there's a saving grace in VSG-era Pacific-rim policy, it's in having John Bolton and Mike Pompeo on board. Hopefully, they can get through to their boss and let him know that this doesn't make him look like a winner.