Meanwhile, in Ukraine

 Peruse the front page of any news aggregate or scholarly world-affairs journal these days and it's likely to be preoccupied with the latest Middle East developments.

Let us not forget, however, that Ukraine continues to be subject to this on a regular basis:

Russian missiles and drones destroyed homes, burned buildings, and killed civilians in Ukraine's major cities in a mass overnight strike on April 16, killing at least 17 and injuring over 100 in Kyiv, Dnipro, and Odesa. 

The overnight assault marks one of the deadliest Russian attacks on Ukrainian civilians of 2026.

The Air Force later said Russia launched a total of 19 ballistic missiles, 25 cruise missiles, and 659 drones during the attack. 

Twelve missiles and 20 drones hit 26 locations across Ukraine, and debris from interceptions hit 25 locations.

In the first attack on Kyiv in over a month, at least four people — including a 12-year-old child — were killed and 48 others injured overnight in Kyiv, Ukraine's State Emergency Service reported. Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said 26 of the wounded were hospitalized, and that among the victims are emergency medics and children. 

Elsewhere in Ukraine, the overnight Russian attack killed at least nine people in the southern port city of Odesa and killed at least four people in the central-eastern city of Dnipro, the local authorities and the State Emergency Service reported.

This is a direct result of the West's moral compass being wobbly from the time Russia launched its assault in February 2022. The Biden administration was skittish about sending what was needed to repel the assault. Europe had not yet gotten a clue as to how it needed to step up, and rogue actors such as North Korea and Iran were all too happy to help Russia. Then along came the Very Stable Genius and that supremely shameful dressing down of Zelensky in the Oval Office, as well as the Alaska "summit" with Putin the following August.

But ironies abound. Yes, Ukraine is still subject to the kind of horror described above, but the shape of a new alliance structure is coming into view:

President Volodymyr Zelensky arrived in Rome on April 15 for talks with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, continuing his diplomatic tour across Europe.

During the visit, Zelensky underscored the need to strengthen Ukraine's air defenses and said that Kyiv and Rome are "working out the specifics" of an upcoming drone deal.

"Italy is very interested in developing joint production, especially in the drone sector, in which Ukraine has become a leading nation in recent years," Meloni said during a joint press conference with Zelensky after talks at the Chigi Palace.

Zelensky urged closer air defense cooperation among European partners, offering Ukraine's expertise in countering drones and missiles.

"We all need a truly effective defense system that can protect against any threats. War has changed," Zelensky said.

Meloni reiterated Italy's support for Ukraine and called for increased economic pressure on Russia, specifically through the EU's 20th sanctions package, currently blocked by Hungary.

The two leaders further discussed Kyiv's efforts to join the EU, the EU's 90-billion-euro ($105 billion) loan for Ukraine, the battlefield situation, and the U.S.-Iran conflict.

As part of his official visit, Zelensky also met Italian President Sergio Mattarella at the Quirinale Palace, who underscored the "deep friendship" between Italy and Ukraine, the Ansa news agency reported.

And that visit comes on the heels of a rift between Meloni and the Very Stable Genius:

 

For years, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni of Italy enjoyed leverage as the right-wing leader who could bridge the gap between Europe and President Trump.

This week, though, she seems to have decided that Mr. Trump is a bridge too far.

After suffering major political setbacks because of her association with Mr. Trump, who is deeply unpopular in Italy and seen as the cause of rising gas prices, Ms. Meloni seized on an opportunity to extricate herself from a relationship that had grown domestically and internationally poisonous. After Mr. Trump launched a broadside on Monday against Pope Leo XIV, Ms. Meloni rallied to the American pontiff’s defense, saying, “I find President Trump’s remarks about the Holy Father unacceptable.”

Mr. Trump, clearly jilted, lashed out at Ms. Meloni, saying in an interview with an Italian newspaper on Tuesday that he hadn’t talked to her “in a long time,” was vexed by her lack of participation in the war in Iran and was “shocked by her,” adding, “I thought she was brave, but I was wrong.” He responded to her “unacceptable” criticism by snapping, “She’s the one who’s unacceptable.” On Wednesday, he added in a television interview that with Italy, “we do not have the same relationship.”

 One hears a lot about how a newly motivated West, minus the United States, is still no match for the military and economic might of the US, but that kind of depends on properly sizing up that motivation. Carney, Starmer, Macron, Merz, Tusk et al know, as the Trumpists like to say, what time it is.

And Ukraine has remained strong enough through this ordeal to emerge as a sought-after vendor of drones, even in the Middle East. And these days Zelensky is forthrightly saying that Ukraine ought to be in NATO.

For all the sober analysis of the current state of all this. there's something to be said for being on the right side of the dynamics from a moral standpoint.

A lot of time and opportunity have been lost so far in the Ukraine situation, but there's a palpable push for those with the most at stake to do the right thing now.

That's to be encouraged.

 

A silly foreign policy in a deadly serious world

 So Vance, Kushner and Witkoff return empty-handed from Islamabad, the Very Stable Genius orders a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz (and I'm not the first to point out the absurdity of the US closing the strait that is already closed by Iran, and which was open to all the ships of the world prior to the VSG starting the current war), Israel is on the same footing it went on prior to previous attacks on Iran,  polls in Hungary don't portend an Orban win, despite the blatant endorsements of Vance and Trump, and the VSG spent last night enjoying himself at a UFC fight. Marco Rubio was in attendance, too.

 For that matter, I don't think I've seen the VSG congratulate the Artemis II crew. If he has, he was low-key about it.

I came across a National Review article this morning that made a compelling case for widening one's scope beyond this panoply of developments:

There is a comfortable orthodoxy settling over editorial boards, university seminars, and policy conferences from Ottawa to Brussels. It goes something like this: Donald Trump broke the international order, the United States is an unreliable partner, and the remedy is diversification — toward China, toward the BRICS bloc of emerging economies (including players like Brazil, Russia, and India), toward anyone who is not Washington. This narrative is not merely incomplete, it is dangerously wrong, and the countries indulging in it are squandering what little time they have to prepare for a world that is about to change in ways that ...

The author, an expatriate American living and teaching in Japan, says the bigger dynamics we ought to consider include AI, and the sclerotic regulatory climate in Canada and Europe.

I respect his perspective, but, as is so often the case with a certain kind of sober-analysis piece I run across, it underestimates the impact of the VSG on post-American politics, the shaping up of new dynamics on the world stage, and the setting of precedents that future generations will take for granted at its own peril.

The guy is so clearly out of control, and his contempt for the rest of the West is getting increasingly egregious. His ha-ha-you-don't-know-whether-I'm-kidding-on-the-square-or-completely-serious style of posting on Truth Social or bloviating to reporters has the rest of the world, malign and good-faith alike, shaping events without waiting around for post-America.

Europe appears determined to sidestep the US in the effort to tailor its defense apparatus to 21st-century needs. Ukraine has already proven itself as a solid vendor of drones to several Mideast nations.

I pray, of course, about the current state of affairs. There are signs, such as the aforementioned polls in Hungary, that the good, right, and true can prevail over the bad, wrong and false, but I'm not counting on post-America to be a needle-mover, at least on the side of the former.

Post-America has opted to be one of the world's bad actors

 I decided LITD was the appropriate place for this rant. Perhaps some nuggets from it will find their way into a Precipice post, or two or three. 

But I'm not ready yet to frame my reaction to recent events in a nicely laid out argument with a singular theme and perhaps some clever metaphors.

No, presently, I'm horrified and enraged. 

There's no longer any question that the United States, under its current "leadership," has rent asunder not just the transatlantic alliance but the commonly held notion of Western civilization.

The Very Stable Genius imposes a ten percent tariff - that's ten percent above and beyond present tariffs - on any nation that doesn't back the VSG's insane designs on Greenland. 

So the European Union - and this is a good move, but it's sad that it's come to where it became necessary - has forged a free trade agreement with the Mercosur bloc - Argentina, Brazil. Paraguay and Uruguay (and probably new bloc member Bolivia. Europe now views post-America as the kind of nation around which it should do an end run, rather than embrace as a partner.

In Copenhagen,  the normally unruffled Danes made a statement:

The crowd, which included parents with small children as well as older Danes, wore hats in the style of Trump’s MAGA caps but scrawled with “Make America Go Away,” and waved Greenlandic flags and signs saying, “Hands off Greenland.”

And check out how this country is reacting to these tariffs:

 Russian officials welcomed U.S. President Donald Trump's threat to impose tariffs on NATO allies over Greenland, with Kremlin economic negotiator Kirill Dmitriev claiming on Jan. 17 that the move signals the "collapse" of the transatlantic alliance. 

Trump earlier said that Washington would impose 10% tariffs on NATO allies — France, Sweden, Denmark, Norway, Germany, the U.K., the Netherlands, and Finland — until the U.S. reaches a deal to buy Greenland. He has threatened to acquire the island "one way or the other."

"The transatlantic alliance is over," Dmitriev wrote on X, mocking European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and urging European leaders not to "provoke" Trump.

And now - sheesh - we're back to sending hints about Canada:

 President Donald Trump is privately ramping up his focus on another target in the Western Hemisphere, increasingly complaining to aides in recent weeks about Canada’s vulnerability to U.S. adversaries in the Arctic, according to two U.S. officials, a senior administration official and three former senior U.S. officials familiar with the discussions.

As Trump’s advisers work toward his goal of acquiring Greenland, the president has privately grown more exercised about what he sees as Canada’s similar inability to defend its borders against any encroachment from Russia or China, specifically arguing Canada needs to spend more on defense, the officials said. They said his push has accelerated internal discussions about a broader Arctic strategy and potentially reaching an agreement with Canada this year to fortify its northern border

The VSG is also creating a "board of peace" to oversee Gaza reconstruction. In a characteristically self-aggrandizing move, he'll be the chair. 

If a country wants to sit on the board more than three. years, it will have to pony up to the tune of a billion dollars.

And into what kind of fund or account will this bit of lucre be deposited?

The draft also reportedly suggests that Mr Trump would control the money himself, and that it would allegedly go towards rebuilding Gaza.

And it seems this board's scope of mission will be more broad than just Gaza:

. . . the text of its charter, which does not mention Gaza but stresses the need for a “more nimble and effective international peace-building body”, suggests its scope would be far broader, and that the body — which will be chaired by Trump himself — could be used as a rival to the UN.

“The Board of Peace is an international organisation that seeks to promote stability, restore dependable and lawful governance, and secure enduring peace in areas affected or threatened by conflict,” the charter says, according to a copy seen by the Financial Times.

“Durable peace requires pragmatic judgment, common sense solutions, and the courage to depart from approaches and institutions that have too often failed.”

On the home front, so far, it's been what we'd call federal agents, employees of the Department of Homeland Security, that have been sent to post-American cities, but now we're talking soldiers:

Some 1,500 active duty Army paratroopers have been put on alert for a potential deployment to Minnesota, according to two defense officials.

The soldiers are from the 11th Airborne Division, based at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Alaska, one of the Army's premier infantry formations and a frontline force in the U.S. military presence in the Pacific, positioned to help deter China. The division is also the military's leading formation for Arctic warfare.

One official said the president had not made a final decision on whether to deploy two battalions. The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Don't get so overwhelmed by the momentum-gathering cascade of events that you become inured. 

Fully let in, as painful as it might be, that post-America is one of the world's bad guys now. 

So what is to be done? 

I really have nothing concrete beyond not acquiescing. Resist what the country has been transformed into. It's not going to get easier to do so. Quite the contrary. It's going to require an increasing amount of courage.

Okay, that's pretty much it for right now. 

For one thing, I just ate lunch and I don't want to lose it. 

 

 

 

Well, why not? It's still late in the day

 Hello, everybody. As you can see, I haven't posted here since March.

I have stayed busy over at my Substack, Precipice, which has a fair number of subscribers and is where I post longer essays that tend to be about a wider range of topics.

I started Late in the Day a few years earlier (LITD, 2012; Precipice, 2019), and the intent has been to invite the public to fully grasp what has happened to this formerly recognizable thing called the West. I do a fair amount of that at Precipice as well, but LITD has always been a bit more topical and the posts more link-rich.

I guess what prompted me to wade back in over here is that I'd like a place to less formally gather my thoughts in response to each - or at least many - of the developments comprising the torrent of abrupt history-making whenever the mood strikes me. A place to feel my way toward inspiration for other projects.

Let's see; the last post I did here had to do with the Jeddah talks regarding Ukraine. 

What a ten months it's been since then. Putin still has no interest in any kind of peace settlement. In fact, he's upped the savagery level of his missile and drone attacks. 

There's the related issue currently on our plate of the Very Stable Genius's blathering about Greenland with random capitalizations and uses of quotation marks and the thank-you-for-your-attention-to-this-matter sign-off that characterize his social media posts. It’s yet another example of this ha-ha-am-I-kidding-on-the-square-or-deadly-serious “presidential” style that we’re saddled with. But it definitely has Denmark, and Europe generally, alarmed and discussing various what-if scenarios.

The bottom line in that arena is that the post-1945 international order is no more. We're back to spheres of influence. Brute force. (Hell, Stephen Miller says so.) 

Venezuela? Sure, as an isolated development, it's great that Maduro has been captured and deposed. But let us consider that newly sworn in president Delcy Rodriguez is a Chavista through and through. As is interior minister Diosdado Cabello, who wields a blunt instrument, literally, in the country's government.  And collectivos are boarding public buses and demanding that passengers hand over their phones so they can check for signs of support for Maduro's ouster. Then there's the VSG's clear indication that oil is his first priority. That's how Vance is thinking of it, too. 

There's the situation with ICE in Minneapolis. I've watched some of the video. It does look to me like Renee Good was steering her car to the right, away from the agents. From what I can tell, they had options other than shooting her in the face. Is it true that she was a cause-y lefty with an edgy lifestyle? Sure. But she was an American citizen and her life is as precious as that of any other of God's children. And now both sides have dug in their heels, have glommed onto hard and fast positions that will brook no nuance.

So things will probably get increasingly confrontational between ICE and people on the streets of post-America's cities. And not only will the question of how to humanely address the situations of long-time residents from elsewhere who have lived productive lives in the US continue to get sidelined, more actual citizens will surely get caught up in the ugliness. 

Anyway, I think I'll start chiming in here again with some degree of frequency. 

I've been kind of missing the place. 

 

The lightning rod that is Ukraine

 The world waits with bated breath to see how the incoming Trump administration is going to handle Russia's continuing savaging of Ukraine.

At the recent Halifax security conference, representatives of various nations searched for signs of continuity between Biden's policy and Trump's, but one participant says it had more the feel of a therapy session. 

I don't know a whole lot about Senator Mike Rounds (R-SD), but I'm impressed by the priorities and fealty to the Constitution that seems to be guiding him on this matter:

South Dakota Senator Mike Rounds has dismissed calls for a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, suggesting Russian President Vladimir Putin could not be trusted to honor such an agreement.

"As much as I would like to believe we can negotiate with a tyrant, I suspect we may be deceiving ourselves," Rounds said in reference to Putin at the Halifax Security Forum on Friday.

"Do you believe that this tyrant, if you offer him a part of a free country, do you think he's gonna stop?" Rounds said.

"I wish I could say there's an easy way out, there's not."

The Republican's sentiments stand in contrast with those of President-Elect Trump, who has previously claimed he could end the conflict in one day.

Rounds also bemoaned the restriction placed on Kyiv in its response to Russia's full-scale invasion.

"I just feel so frustrated that we have not been able to provide them all of the equipment that they need, and all of the weapons systems that they need, in order to respond to the absolute tyranny coming from Russia," said Rounds, who did reportedly stress that his views were not those of the incoming administration.

(As a side note, I also dig his recent introduction of legislation  to dismantle the Department of Education. Progressives are going to use this to conflate actual conservative policy with Trumpist yay-hoo-ism. And the Trumpists will say, "This is conservatism now." This is why I write my occasional "wheat from chaff scoreboard" posts over at Precipice. )

I have to imagine that he's going to get upbraided by the drool-besotted throne sniffers for showing an  independent streak. In fact, that's already started. The disgusting Laura Ingraham tweeted that Rounds was "already undermining" the Very Stable Genius. Sorry, toots, but the legislative branch is independent of the executive.

We. of course, have no idea what the VSG would actually do to achieve this peace in 24 hours he speaks of. Presumably, he's confident that his personal charm would be the deciding factor in a sit-down with Mad Vlad and President Zelensky. You know, like the way the summits and beautiful letters changed North Korea into a legitimate member of the international community.

The Trumpist excuses for not seeing that the Ukraine and Israel situations are morally identical range from "America First" isolationism to the argument that we need to focus all our world-threat attention on the way China is breathing down Taiwan's neck. Another argument is that support for Ukraine drains resources from the effort to seal the southern US border. (The actual truth is that, given our $36 million debt, we don't have the money for anything. But for the world's only superpower ostensibly committed to a stable, Western-oriented world order, expenditures must be made anyway.)

There's also the "start World War III" argument, articulated recently by Joe Rogan  and Donald Trump, Jr. who, for good measure, trotted out the hackneyed term "military industrial complex." As if it's okay not to do the right thing because there's some attendant risk.

There's a more sinister line of argument that tries to let Putin off the hook for the 2014 seizure of Crimea and the more general war against Ukraine he commenced in February 2022. 

That matters a great deal at present, given the VSG's nomination of Tulsi Gabbard to the DNI director position.

Let's have a look at her track record on this subject:

n the summer of 2015, three Syrian girls who had narrowly survived an airstrike some weeks earlier stood before Tulsi Gabbard with horrific burns all over their bodies.

Gabbard, then a US congresswoman on a visit to the Syria-Turkey border as part of her duties for the foreign affairs committee, had a question for them.

“How do you know it was Bashar al-Assad or Russia that bombed you, and not Isis?’” she asked, according to Mouaz Moustafa, a Syrian activist who was translating her conversation with the girls.

It was a revealing insight into Gabbard’s conspiratorial views of the conflict, and it shocked Moustafa to silence. He knew, as even the young children did, that Isis did not have jets to launch airstrikes. It was such an absurd question that he chose not to translate it because he didn’t want to upset the girls, the eldest of whom was 12.

“From that point on, I’m sorry to say I was inaccurate in my translations of anything she said,” Moustafa told The Independent. “It was more like: How do I get these girls away from this devil?”

Even before Gabbard left the Democratic Party, ingratiated herself with Donald Trump and secured his nomination to become director of National Intelligence, she was known as a prolific peddler of Russian propaganda.

In almost every foreign conflict in which Russia had a hand, Gabbard backed Moscow and railed against the US. Her past promotion of Kremlin propaganda has provoked significant opposition on both sides of the aisle to her nomination.

Her journey from anti-war Democrat to Moscow-friendly Maga warrior began in Syria. The devastating conflict was sparked by pro-democracy uprisings in 2011, which were brutally crushed by the Assad regime. It descended into a complex web of factions that drew extremist Islamists from around the world and global powers into the fray.

You will note that peacenik lefties, libertarians and Trumpists all have in common this emphasis on the ickiness of war, untethered to moral considerations. 

Within Europe, there's less than a unified stance on the matter. So far in the war, Romania has proven a stalwart supporter of Ukraine, but that looks to change with the probable election of isolationist Calin Georgescu as Romania's president.

Something else to consider: the war in Ukraine is ratcheting up, and eye-opening developments could well occur between now and January 20. That could change some players' calculus.

In any event, let's be clear-eyed about the fact that not everyone wants to see the acceptable outcome - Ukraine's total defeat of Russia - take place. 

Lotta variables in a very volatile situation.  

 

There's a palpable Cuban-missile-crisis-y feel to the present moment

 I think the Cuban missile crisis of October 1962 is still considered the moment at which the world came closest to nuclear war. Maybe that's just because I live through it and remember grownups discussing it. I was alive for the Suez Canal crisis of 1956, which, in retrospect, was another moment when the danger level was pretty heightened, but I was an infant. We're finding out that we weren't all that far away from such a point of peril in Vietnam in 1968.

But in recent years, that hair-trigger tension level has abated:

For more than three decades after the end of the Cold War, the United States and its allies faced no serious nuclear threats.

But no sooner do Madelyn Creedon and Franklin Miller, writing at Foreign Affairs, assert as much, than they follow it with this splash of cold water:

Unfortunately, that is no longer the case. Russian President Vladimir Putin has been rattling his nuclear saber in a manner reminiscent of Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev. Chinese President Xi Jinping has directed a dramatic buildup of China’s nuclear arsenal, a project whose size and scope the recently retired commander of U.S. Strategic Command has described as “breathtaking.” The Russian and Chinese leaders have also signed a treaty of “friendship without limits.” North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is supplying weapons and troops to support Russia’s war in Ukraine, and North Korea is improving its ability to strike both its neighbors and the U.S. homeland with nuclear weapons, as it demonstrated with an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) test launch on October 31.

Europe is particularly on edge.

The Nordic countries tell their citizens "prepare and we ain't foolin'":

On Monday, millions of pamphlets landed in Swedish homes eerily titled: "If Crisis or War Comes," while other nations issue their own chilling advice to fearful citizens.

Stockholm has warned of what they call the worsening security situation - otherwise known as Russia's bloody invasion of Ukraine - and urged Swedes to prepare for conflict.

Meanwhile neighbouring Finland have published its own chilling advice online to prepare "for incidents and crises".

In a scarily detailed section on military conflict, the digital brochure describes how the government and president would respond in the event of an armed attack.

The Finnish brochure stressed that its authorities are "well prepared for self defence".

Norwegians also received a pamphlet urging residents to know how to manage on their own for a week in the event of extreme weather - or war.

In summer, Denmark's emergency management agency put out a warning to Danish adults detailing the water, food and medicine necessary to get through three days of crisis.

Sweden and Finland recently gave up neutrality to join Nato after witnessing the atrocities Putin has unleashed in Ukraine since 2022.

Norway was a founding member of the Western defensive alliance on the other hand.

Germans, too:

Germans have been put on high alert for a potential World War 3 scenario with Russia following renewed threats of a nuclear strike from Vladimir Putin. The situation has escalated after US President Joe Biden authorised Ukraine to use long-range missiles against Russia, which Moscow claims has already targeted a weapons warehouse in the Bryansk region.

Putin warned in September that if Western countries allow Ukraine to strike deep inside Russiawith their longer-range weapons, "it will mean that NATO countries, the US, and European countries are at war with Russia."

German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius has since stated that Russia poses not just a military but also a hybrid threat and that Europe needs to adopt a comprehensive approach to defence.Germany's Foreign Minister has also pledged that the country will not be "intimidated" by Putin, following revelations that Germany would serve as a NATO staging ground should the conflict escalate further.

According to a 1,000-page document titled 'Operationsplan Deutschland', Germany would host hundreds of thousands of troops from NATO countries and act as a logistics hub for dispatching military equipment, food, and medicine to the front lines. The German army is also advising civilians and businesses on how to safeguard infrastructure and prepare to defend the country against potential sabotage, drone attacks, and spying operations.

Germany is setting crisis plans into motion, assigning responsibilities for emergency actions and creating diesel stockpiles, following the lead of Scandinavian nations. Defence Minister Mr Pistorius announced on Tuesday that officials suspect sabotage caused damage to two undersea data cables in the Baltic Sea, one terminating in Germany, although evidence is yet to be found, reports the Mirror US.

Italy, Spain, Greece and the US have closed their Kyiv embassies for at least a day as Ukraine anticipates yet another brazen missile assault from Russia. 

Some bracing words from Sergey Markov:

The US has been given a chilling 'WW3 by Christmas' warning by pro-Putin spokesperson Sergey Markov.

Western allies, also including Britain and France, have taken a “big jump” towards a nuclear conflict by giving Ukraine permission to fire Western long-range missiles into Kremlin territory, Markov claims.

A regular Putin “mouthpiece”, Markov warned that the shock move by President Joe Biden could mean that Britons could be facing a Christmas in shelters.

But Putin lackeys routinely indulge in nuclear bluster, don't they?

Those in favour of the move have noted that the Kremlin and its mouthpieces in the state-controlled media and academia had threatened nuclear war every time the West had stepped up its support for Ukraine, including when it provided tanks, fighter jets and other sophisticated weapon systems.

However, Markov, currently the Director General of Russia's Institute for Political Studies, was convinced the move was different as it would mean that Western militaries would be directly involved in the conflict for the first time - Ukraine would require their assistance to use the precision guided missile systems.

Speaking to BBC Radio 4, he said: “My reaction [to the White House’s decision] was awful, I couldn't sleep well because I am just afraid nuclear war is coming.

“This decision of United States, Great Britain and France is not a step towards nuclear war it is a big jump to nuclear war, nuclear catastrophe."

What's the latest with Iran's nuclear ambitions? 

 Iran has defied international demands to rein in its nuclear program and has increased its stockpile of uranium enriched to near weapons-grade levels, according to a confidential report by the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog seen Tuesday by The Associated Press.

The report by the International Atomic Energy Agency said that as of Oct. 26, Iran has 182.3 kilograms (401.9 pounds) of uranium enriched up to 60%, an increase of 17.6 kilograms (38.8 pounds) since the last report in August.

Uranium enriched at 60% purity is just a short, technical step away from weapons-grade levels of 90%.

The IAEA also estimated in its quarterly report that as of Oct. 26, Iran’s overall stockpile of enriched uranium stands at 6,604.4 kilograms (14,560 pounds), an increase of 852.6 kilograms (1,879.6 pounds) since August. Under the IAEA’s definition, around 42 kilograms (92.5 pounds) of uranium enriched to 60% purity is the amount at which creating one atomic weapon is theoretically possible — if the material is enriched further, to 90%.

The reports come at a critical time as Israel and Iran have traded missile attacks in recent months after more than a year of war in Gaza, which is governed by Hamas, a group supported by Iran.

It may be time to reassess the above-mentioned instances' status in the history of nuclear danger. Our present moment seems to offer enough to go around. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Israel is a litmus test of the world's capability of moral clarity; it's failing badly

 There's the International Criminal Court's moral-equivalency framing in its intent to issue arrest warrants for Netanyahu and Israeli defense minister Gallant. Oh, yes, it also wants to arrest Yahya Sinwar and other Hamas leaders, Ain't that nice?

And now there's this:

 Norway, Ireland and Spain said on Wednesday they are recognizing a Palestinian state, in a historic but largely symbolic move that deepens Israel’s isolation more than seven months into its grinding war against Hamas in Gaza.

 . . . Israel recalled its ambassadors to the three countries and summoned their envoys, accusing the Europeans of rewarding the militant Hamas group for its Oct. 7 attack that triggered the war.

Netanyahu's government, which is opposed to Palestinian statehood, says the conflict can only be resolved through direct negotiations, which last collapsed over 15 years ago.

As if to underline the point, Israel's far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir paid a provocative visit Wednesday to a flashpoint holy site in Jerusalem sacred to Jews and Muslims in a move that could escalate tensions across the region.

Ben-Gvir said the visit was a response to the move by the three European countries. “We will not even allow a statement about a Palestinian state,” he said. The Al-Aqsa mosque compound is the third holiest site in Islam, and the hilltop on which it stands is the holiest site for Jews, who refer to it as the Temple Mount.

With their formal recognition, planned for May 28, the three countries will join some 140 — more than two-thirds of the United Nations — that have recognized the state of Palestine over the years. The United States and Britain, among others, have backed the idea of an independent Palestinian state alongside Israel but say it should come as part of a negotiated settlement.

The announcements from Europe came in a swift cascade. Norway, which helped broker the Oslo accords that kicked off the peace process in the 1990s, was the first to announce its decision, with Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre saying “there cannot be peace in the Middle East if there is no recognition.”

Irish Prime Minister Simon Harris called it an “historic and important day for Ireland and for Palestine,” saying the announcements had been coordinated and that other countries might join “in the weeks ahead.”

The international community has long viewed the creation of a Palestinian state alongside Israel as the only realistic way to resolve the conflict, and in past weeks several European Union countries have indicated they plan to recognize a Palestinian state to further those efforts.

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, who announced his country's decision before parliament, has spent months touring European and Middle Eastern countries to garner support for recognition, as well as for a possible cease-fire in Gaza.

“This recognition is not against anyone, it is not against the Israeli people,” Sánchez said. “It is an act in favor of peace, justice and moral consistency.” He said it was clear that Netanyahu “does not have a project for peace,” while acknowledging that “the fight against the terrorist group Hamas is legitimate.”

Israel's government harshly condemned the decision taken by the three countries. Foreign Minister Israel Katz recalled Israel's ambassadors and summoned the three countries' envoys in Israel. He said they would watch grisly video footage of the Oct. 7 attack.

“History will remember that Spain, Norway, and Ireland decided to award a gold medal to Hamas murderers and rapists," he said. He also said the announcement would undermine talks aimed at a cease-fire and hostage release in Gaza that came to a standstill earlier this month.

President Mahmoud Abbas, the leader of the Palestinian Authority, which administers parts of the Israeli-occupied West Bank, welcomed the moves toward recognition, saying they would contribute to efforts to bring about a two-state solution.

Mahmoud Abbas. Would that be the guy who won one election for a six-year term as head of the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank decades ago and has held the office ever since?

And, excuse me for bringing up an awkward subject, but all talk of a two-state solution is pretty ephemeral without some universally agreed-upon parties agreeing to borders for a Palestinian state, as well as what kinds of government for such a state the international community would not find acceptable. 

We've been down that road - in 1937, with the Peel Commission, in 1947, with the UN proposal, and the 1990s attempts at it: the Oslo Accords (which were closely followed by the Second Intifada) and the sight, indelibly etched in the national memory, of Madeleine Albright chasing Yasser Arafat down the hall in her high heels, imploring him to return to the negotiating room to hear the very latest idea on the matter. 

And now this:

Egyptian intelligence quietly changed the terms of a ceasefire proposal that Israel had already signed off on earlier this month, ultimately scuttling a deal that could have released Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners, and set a pathway to temporarily end the fighting in Gaza, according to three people familiar with the discussions.

The ceasefire agreement that Hamas ended up announcing on May 6 was not what the Qataris or the Americans believed had been submitted to Hamas for a potential final review, the sources said.

The changes made by Egyptian intelligence, the details of which have not been previously reported, led to a wave of anger and recrimination among officials from the US, Qatar and Israel, and left ceasefire talks at an impasse.

“We were all duped,” one of those sources told CNN.

Can we please stop talking about "achieving a lasting peace?" There's going to be maximum tension in the Middle East, occasionally erupting into hot wars of varying degrees of peril to the world at large, until there's general recognition, among all the types of nations in the world, of Israel's right to exist as a Jewish representative democracy.  

It's very late in the day for Ukraine

 If you haven't seen it yet, I'd like to steer your attention to a Washington Post story this morning profiling seven Ukrainian men, most of them in their early 20s, and who had decidedly non-combat lives before their country was invaded, who were among the last to try to defend Avdiivka before it fell. Each profile is accompanied by a portrait-style photograph. Stare deeply into their faces, their eyes. These guys have seen things that have forever transformed them.

Here's a taste of a. couple of their stories:

Major had just arrived in Avdiivka in the second week of February and set up in an old, two-story student dorm when waves of Russian troops began crashing against his unit’s position. 

Eventually, a group of well-trained Russian soldiers hit them with a barrage of rocket-propelled grenades and were soon fighting their way through the building. 

Russian troops backed Major into the corner of a room and screamed at him to surrender. He played along and begged them not to shoot as he frantically looked for a way out. 

Other Ukrainian troops came to his rescue with an assault of their own and in the ensuing chaos, he scrambled out of a second-floor window to safety. 

By the time his unit retreated, he was in charge. So many soldiers had been wounded that there was “nobody more senior left,” the 21-year-old said. 

His unit was then assigned to a tree line along the evacuation routes — one of the last lines of defense — to cover the troops pulling out. Soon the Russians were “raining down very targeted artillery fire on us,” he said. 

If there were more troops, artillery and air cover, Ukrainian forces could have held on to the position, he said, adding, “We just needed something to fight with.” 

When his group finally left the city entirely, he watched the convoy in front of him erupt into fire as artillery took them out. “It was just a convoy of people. A convoy of the best men ever. And in front of our eyes, this convoy was destroyed by artillery. People of my age, between 20 and 30.” 

“This was the road of death,” he said, “the very last one out of Avdiivka.”

And 

Shved, a marksman, was constantly moving between positions in Avdiivka, shooting so many Russian troops he said he “lost count after 10.” 

Setting up in abandoned civilian homes, he had to get creative to find firing positions. At one point, he said, he perched on top of a wardrobe to get a better shot. “I learned everything I needed to know about unstable positions in Avdiivka,” he said. 

The skill levels of Russian troops were not “really consistent,” he said. There were some with little more than uniforms and basic rifles while others had more advanced equipment. He had several close calls and after three concussions, his commander consulted a medic and suggested it might be time to leave. 

By then, he said, it felt like “someone put a pan over my head, hit me with a baseball bat, and then punched and kicked me.” 

He agreed to evacuate, but while being driven out with three other wounded men, a drone hit their vehicle, damaging it and giving him his fourth concussion. They all survived. 

Now, I'd like to steer you to a piece Gary Kasparov posted on Facebook about the current situation:

Russia is currently deploying six times the number of shells that Ukraine is, helping to propel it to victories like the recent recapturing of the eastern city of Avdiivka. And, shortly after the opening of the conference, attendees received news of the devastating murder of Aleksei Navalny, the most prominent opposition leader remaining in Putin’s Russia. The energetic mood of last year’s conference gave way, this time, to weariness and resignation.

To see such a concentration of power, money, and influence in one place, and yet no political will, was truly shocking to me. The subtext of what I heard can be summed up as follows: “We understand that the reason Ukraine is struggling in its fight to maintain its independence is because the West is failing to provide it adequate support. But, we are not willing to undertake any risks, to make any uncomfortable sacrifices, in our effort to help. Ukraine is our dear friend, of course, and our GDP is twenty-five times greater*, but, unfortunately—there isn’t anything else we can do.”

Even promises already made are not being kept. Days after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz pledged to supply $1 billion in arms; two years later, his government is still negotiating with major arms manufacturer Rheinmetall over a multiyear contract that would allow the company to increase its manufacturing capacity.

The vacuum looming in these European deliberations is the lack of resolve on the part of the Untied States. The dynamic does not favor decisive action:

[Nikki Haley] likes to say “the world is on fire,” with conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East and brewing problems elsewhere. She advocates more military aid for Ukraine and argues against Trump’s “America First” worldview. Her argument, shared by others, is that a retreat by the United States from a leadership role in the world leaves both this country and the world at large less safe in the face of threats from Russia, China, Iran and North Korea. 

She harks back to a different Republican Party, a party that has been in retreat since Trump first ran for president. She wins votes — 20 percent or 30 percent or even 40 percent in states where she has competed — but she is not winning the argument. 

If the next round of primaries goes as expected, with Trump triumphant, Haley will face more calls to withdraw. She has been defiant in resisting those calls to date, marching to the beat of her own drum. But to what end? For there is little to suggest that she can now or in the near future arrest the inward turn within her party.

And, while much can transpire over the next several months, the current dynamic between the parties suggests that this inward turn has the momentum. 

Encouraging developments are hard to come by, but this one is worth noting:

A pro-Ukraine House Republican is preparing an effort to go around House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) to get aid to Ukraine passed.

Why it matters: It's a rare break with House GOP leadership, which has resisted holding a Ukraine aid vote due to strong opposition from the right.

• "We have to get something done," said Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), co-chair of the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus, who is leading the push. 
• "It's existential, it's time sensitive. Whether that's our product or somebody else's, we've just got to get the money out the door to them," he said.

What's happening: Fitzpatrick told reporters he is preparing what is known as a discharge petition, which can force a House vote if it gets 218 signatures.

• Such a petition would therefore require support from a handful of Republicans, assuming it gets signatures from most House Democrats.
• The maneuver also requires a certain amount of time – 30 days in which the House is in session – before it can be forced to the floor.

What he's saying: Fitzpatrick said the petition will be ready for signatures by early March and signaled he expects it to garner some Republican signatures.

• Asked about the depth of Republican support, he told reporters, "more than you think ... a lot of people who know it's the right thing to do."
• One House Republican, speaking on the condition of anonymity, told Axios they will sign on "if [there's] no other progress."
• But Fitzpatrick also stressed that the discharge petition mainly serves to "apply a pressure point to get something done soon."

Fitzpatrick is doing his career no favors, but he understands that that's not the important thing here.

And Argentinian president Javier Milei continues to confound preconceived notions. He's initiating a rallying of the global south of a sort we ought to applaud: 

Argentina's President Javier Milei has announced his intention to convene a summit aimed at bolstering Latin American support for Ukraine, as revealed in a Financial Times interview on Feb. 28. 

This move marks a clear divergence from the more neutral stances of other regional leaders like Brazil's Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Mexico's Andrés Manuel López Obrador.

So there are developments that, with encouragement, could reverse what looks increasingly inevitable. But it's going to require vigor and courage.