Tuesday, January 2, 2018

Kim seems to be using mixed signals as a tool for playing one of his enemies against the other

What conclusions are to be drawn from his New Year address?

A lot of outlets are emphasizing the conciliatory tone he extends toward South Korea, but this ought not to be minimized:

In his annual New Year's address, North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un tried to drive a wedge between the U.S. and its ally South Korea while threatening the United States with nuclear war.
Kim said his country had completed its nuclear program and the "button" for nuclear weapons was on his desk.
"The U.S. should know that the button for nuclear weapons is on my table," he said during the speech, as provisionally translated by the AP. The official transcript of his address was expected to be released shortly. "The entire area of the U.S. mainland is within our nuclear strike range. ... The United States can never start a war against me and our country."
Last week, North Korean officials said it was a "pipe dream" for the United States to think the isolated nation would give up its nuclear weapons, and called tough new U.N. sanctions targeting the country "an act of war" that violate its sovereignty.
Then there is the Olympics gesture, which  seems to have South Korean president Moon - widely regarded as coming out of the sunshine-policy strain of that country's spectrum of relations-with-the-North viewpoints - intrigued:

This morning, less than 24 hours later, he was out with an official statement suggesting that representatives of the two nations get together in a neutral location as soon as next week to begin hammering out the details. (Reuters)
South Korean President Moon Jae-in said on Tuesday the improvement of inter-Korean relations was linked to resolving North Korea’s nuclear program, a day after the North offered talks with Seoul but was steadfast on its nuclear ambitions.
“The improvement of relations between North and South Korea cannot go separately with resolving North Korea’s nuclear program, so the foreign ministry should coordinate closely with allies and the international community regarding this,” Moon said in opening remarks at a cabinet meeting…
The South Korean president requested the ministries of unification and sports to swiftly create measures to help North Korea participate in the upcoming Pyeongchang Winter Olympics.
They’re already talking about sending cruise ships up to North Korea’s Wonsan port to ferry athletes and officials down to Pyeongchang for the games. This would “minimize costs” for the North as well as avoiding the inconvenient issues of the millions of landmines buried under the DMZ. It may not be a done deal yet, but it certainly looks as if Moon Jae-in is ready to jump at the chance to minimize the risk of an international incident (if not a direct attack) during the games. 
Parsing semantics can seem like a doo-dah exercise in realms with less import than foreign relations with nuclear implications, but in that realm, it is everything:

While not ignoring the North’s nuclear weapons provocations entirely, Moon Jae-in is now talking about “resolving” North Korea’s nuclear program. He’s not saying eliminating, dismantlingor even scaling back the program. What this could amount to is little more than a freeze in significant growth. In other words, he’s very likely signaling an acceptance of the North as a nuclear power providing they don’t get too carried away. And that’s the first building block that Kim Jong-un needs if his goal is, as I mentioned above, to get the rest of the world to accept a nuclear North Korea as the new normal.
I would say we should not come to fast conclusions. The US and South Korean militaries are still undoubtedly on schedule for the next round of their joint preparedness drills. South Korea is surely hearing from Japan on a regular basis about that country's concerns.

Still, this is an example of the kind of incrementalism that lets legitimization of evil seep into world-stage interactions. Especially in an Olympic-games year, the temptation to heed the can't-we-just-see-if-for-amoment-we-can't-ratchet-down-the-tension viewpoint is going to be strong.

We - meaning the civilized world, in this case exemplified by South Korea - can send a ferry up there to bring the athletes to the site of the games, but the instruments by which Seoul, Tokyo and Los Angeles can be incinerated are not going anywhere, and the regime that has been training those athletes to be picked up has by no means renounced the possibility of so using those instruments.


6 comments:

  1. Seems statecraft always pisses you off. The

    ReplyDelete
  2. You need to flesh this out. It looks like you perhaps intended to, given the tapering off of what you're saying before you finished a sentence.

    ReplyDelete
  3. But on the basis of what you've said so far, I'll say this: There are some regimes, and even a couple of non state actors in this world that have made plain this position: We consider the United States of America our mortal enemy. Our aims in this world are at complete odds with its aims. Therefore, there is no alternative to the obvious ultimate outcome of this scenario: We will destroy the USA.

    You don't sit down to discuss athletic events or anything else with entities so positioned.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Your grandchildren wind up dying if you try to go this route.

    ReplyDelete
  5. OK, we shall tweet trash talk from the man you and I each detest but only you for the right reasons.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Our enemies are afraid that the USA will bury them too. They've seen us depose and execute their leaders, defoliate their forests, and attempt to bomb them into oblivion in the name of freedom if we can't come up with a fear of in Asian or being bombed to oblivion or credible existential threats to our survival. Like with the plumber, you can call on the striped pants peeps now or you can call on them plater. It has oft been noted that hubris has been our provisional downfall and I think I see it in abundance here and now again. We can write about it now or we can write about it later. I fear what the corporate architects have in store for my progeny here within our shores as much as any external threat and DJ Trump is its embodiment..

    ReplyDelete